Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough currently off the coastal Carolinas pushes
inland today. This will result in increased clouds and numerous
showers to gradually return to the region. A boundary approaches
the local area from the north Thursday night and crosses part
of the local area during the day on Friday. That front stalls
over the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 540 AM EDT Wednesday...

Increased PoPs about 10-30% across the FA for this morning as
SHRAs from the SE spread over the FA. Pockets of moderate/heavy
rain poss w/ these SHRAs (as well any SHRAs/stms later today).

Previous discussion:
Wx conditions didn't deteriorate too much across the local
Tue...however...a (prolonged?) period of unsettled/wet wx does
begin today. Hi pres remains from the wrn Atlantic to the gulf
states while a strong trough dives through the Rockies. Would
think we'd have typical late Summer wx but moisture will
continue to increase from the SE as weak sfc lo pres approaches
the coastal Carolinas...tracking NW into the weakness of the
area of hi pres. Lower clouds have arrived over most of the FA
attm w/ exception to areas N and NW. Initially...SHRAs will be
spreading NNW across NE NC into SE VA this morning. By this
afternoon...SHRAs will become more widespread...ISOLD tstms are
poss but instability will be generally limited (mainly confined
to SE VA-NE NC). Locally heavy rain is poss as PW's rise to aoa
2". While we've dried out some since the heavy rain events in
early August (and FFGs are generally 2-3"/1 hour and 3-5"/3
hours)...a few instances of urban/poor drainage flooding may
occur later today. Will mention potential HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

While some diurnal "weakening" of pcpn coverage is expected
tonight...at least SCT SHRAs (some w/ heavy downpours?) are
likely to persist. Otw...mostly cloudy-overcast and humid w/
lows in the u60s-l70s (except m70s in parts of SE VA/NE NC).

The unsettled pattern with SCT-numerous SHRAs/ISOLD tstms
continues through the end of the week (highest coverage from
early aftn through evening each day). PoPs generally range from
50-70% on Thu. Local heavy rain will be poss again. Will keep
that mention is HWO. Highs Thu mainly in the l80s (m80s far
S-SE). Humid Muggy Thu night w/ ISOLD-SCT SHRAs continuing. Lows
generally range from 70-75F. The strong cold front that is
currently stretching from the ern Great Lakes-srn Plains slowly
crosses the local area (from the NNW) Fri...but weakens some as
it does so. Little or no noticeable clearing/drying is expected
w/-behind the front. PoPs Fri 30-40% N...50-70% S. Highs in the
u70s-around 80F N to 80-85F S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

This weekend into early next week remains unsettled with a boundary
sitting nearby. This, along with a series of shortwaves moving
across the northeast will keep the chance of showers/storms in
the forecast each day. A cold front crosses the area late Monday
into early Tuesday, which will bring some drier wx to the area
through mid week. High temps will be near normal to slightly
below normal ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Generally
humid conditions will keep low temps above normal ranging from
the mid to upper 60s with around 70 close to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Lower CIGS continue to creep inland/NW as onshore flow persists.
BKN-OVC MVFR CIGs will generally prevail through the 12Z TAF
forecast period...w/ IFR CIGs poss...esp SE VA-NE NC. ISOLD-SCT
SHRAS are slow to spread NNW from the coastal Carolinas this
morning. More widespread coverage of SHRAs and even poss ISOLD
tstms midday into this evening. Coverage of pcpn most likely
diminishes somewhat tonight...but MVFR/IFR stratus is expected
to persist across the terminals tonight. Widespread SHRAs...and
possible ISOLD afternoon/evening tstms are expected on Thu and
Fri w/ potential fog/stratus during the morning hours. BKN-OVC
clouds and high PoPs will remain through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure is located across the Canadian Maritime
and is move east early this morning. However, the high pressure
ridge axis still extended southwestward across in the Mid-
Atlantic states. An inverted trough, that is located just
offshore of the VA and NC coast, is tracking west towards the
coast as well. This is resulting in an ENE wind of 10-15 kt,
with ENE 15-20 kt across the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower
James River. There won't be much change in the pressure field
as the sfc trough slowly moves onshore today. Once the axis of
the trough moves inland late Wednesday night, the pressure
gradient will weaken and winds will become E 5-10 kt from
Thursday morning to Friday morning. Seas will build to 4 to 5 ft
during the day on Wednesday, waves in the bay will be 2 to 3 ft
(around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay). Seas and waves will
slowly subside by Thursday. SCA may be needed for waves/seas
Wednesday afternoon for the mouth of the bay, and for the ocean
south of Cape Charles.

The center of a sfc high pressure will track along the
U.S./Canada border Friday into Saturday. As the center of high
pressure tracks to the north of the region this weekend, NNE
winds will increase to 20-25 kt across coastal water. Seas will
likely build to 6-7 ft and waves to around 4 ft. SCA will
likely be need for most of our coastal waters over the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
504 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-100915-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
504 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or
poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or
poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-100915-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
504 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or
poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from the
showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or poor
drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-100915-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
504 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or
poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from the
showers and storms could result in a few instances of urban or poor
drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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