Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1132 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure and a slow moving front across
the area, will result in unsettled weather through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Saturday...

Very busy with flash flooding this morning. Latest surface
analysis shows a stationary boundary generally from the eastern
shore through RIC to the southern piedmont. Very heavy rainfall
associated with perhaps a weak wave along the boundary has set
up over southside RIC metro leading to up to 9 inches in parts
of Chesterfield County. Latest radar continues to show
development along the boundary across the southern Piedmont and
also along the boundary down the Peninsula. Latest HRRR and
NAM3km have locked into heavy pcpn this afternoon into this
evening along this boundary which makes sense given the current
radar. As such, no changes at this time to the current flash
flood watch but will need to look closely at possible expansion
northward if the heaviest rain shifts north slightly. Still
expecting development along a seocndary trough across southern
VA into NE NC as well later this afternoon given some partial
clearing helping to destabilize the atmosphere.

As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain are
possible later this afternoon through this evening. Early
morning weather analysis reveals TS Kyle moving further off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and a weak area of low pressure across the TN
Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to
remain nearly stationary near the VA/NC border which will become
the focus for showers or thunderstorms as we head through the
day. A wedge airmass is expected to form north of the boundary
across the VA Piedmont as high pressure builds down from the N
between the two systems.

The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and flooding.
With precipitable water values still at or above 2 inches, improving
upper support and the boundary slowly lifting north there is good
support for a significant heavy rain event. On average the region
could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, however, some locations along and
just north of the front could see even higher totals. As a result, a
Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for roughly the southern 2/3rds
of the forecast area (RIC and south). Very saturated grounds and low
FFG values will increase the risk for flash flooding across the
local area.

Instability will likely be lacking for northern portions of the area
as the wedge airmass sets up, more of stratiform type rain is
expected for these locations. Still some questions in general how
far north the heaviest rain develops due to the developing wedge
feature and it is possible the convective elements remain confined
to far S VA/NE NC, limiting heavy rainfall further to the north.
Opted to include up to RIC in the Flash Flood Watch to follow the
Day 1 ERO placement of the MDT risk.

Additional Flash Flood Watches may be needed for the Eastern
Shore/Northern Neck later this evening and tonight as the heavier
precip pivots further to the east.

Tricky temperature forecast today due to the wedge airmass.
Highs will likely only make reach the lower to mid 70s across the
far NW while highs across the SE climb into the lower 80s. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again during the day
(especially east) before drier conditions move in by Sunday night as
the surface trough finally moves off the coast. A weak front
potentially moves through the area Monday, bringing the slight
chance for a shower, but do expect generally dry conditions.

Slightly cooler (but still muggy) Sunday due to the rain/cloud
cover. Have highs ranging from the mid 70s across the NW to the
mid/upper 80s SE on Sunday. Monday will feature highs in the middle
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper level low pressure will be centered near/just east of the
Hudson Bay from early-mid next week, as the associated upper trough
axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast. The upper trough axis
then eventually elongates south-southwestward to the MS River
Valley/GOMEX by the middle to end of next week. Unfortunately, this
means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next
week (especially Wed-Fri). Tuesday looks to be the least active
day (lowest PoPs from Tue-Fri) with PoPs in the 25-40% range.
Then, expect (mainly diurnal) convection to increase in coverage
once again from the middle to end of next week. As a result,
have high chc PoPs for much of the area during the aftn/evening
hours from Wed-Fri. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall
potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high
as they are now, but localized flooding will be possible each
day given wet antecedent conditions. Otherwise, temperatures
should be seasonable with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions at the TAF sites to start
the forecast period. Showers remain widely scattered across the
area, thus the continued mention of VCSH in the forecast.
Showers early this morning are fairly light, with minimal
reductions in visibility expected. Generally expect the sites to
linger around MVFR through much of the forecast period with the
exception of SBY where VFR likely prevails through midday. A
slow moving boundary likely stalls near the VA/NC border later
today with the potential for heavier rainfall and MVFR to IFR
north of this boundary in any heavier showers. Northeast winds
between 5-10 knots will continue through the period.

Outlook:
Numerous showers/thunderstorms continue Saturday night as deep
moisture continues to move along the surface trough/cold front.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible for the remainder of the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley
early this morning, with a stationary front located over NC.
Meanwhile, TS Kyle is tracking ENE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The wind is NE and ranges from 10-15kt N to 5-10kt S. Seas range
from 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N. High pressure remains anchored well NE of
the region today into tonight as an area of low pressure slowly
tracks along the stationary front across NC. A NE wind has the
potential to increase to 15-20kt for the ocean N of Parramore Is.
and the Bay N of New Point Comfort this aftn/evening. Seas build to
4-5ft today N of Chincoteague, and are expected to remain 4-5ft and
possibly up to 5-6ft through at least Sunday night. Therefore, the
SCA has been extended through 6 am Monday. An SCA has not been
issued for the Bay N of New Point Comfort at this time given that
the duration may be less than 3hrs. The pressure gradient slackens
later tonight into Sunday morning as the low tracks across the Mid-
Atlantic coast. The pressure gradient tightens again Sunday
aftn/Sunday night with the wind becoming N/NW 10-15kt. Seas are
expected to gradually subside to 3-4ft early next week. Weak high
pressure is expected to build into the area by Monday and Tuesday,
and then slide offshore Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ060-061-065>069-
     079>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/MRD
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-085-509>512-517>522-160815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Goochland-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely through tonight.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall...and localized flash flooding are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>069-079>084-086>090-092-093-
095>098-513>516-523>525-160815-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-160815-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
415 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely through tonight.
Periods of locally heavy rainfall...and localized flash flooding are
possible.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1212 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW RALEIGH TERRACE   36.98N 76.42W
08/15/2020                   CITY OF NEWPORT NEWVA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADWAYS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            ACROSS NEWPORT NEWS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

VAZ081-082-089-090-151715-
Charles City-Prince George-Surry-James City-
1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHARLES CITY...NORTHEASTERN
PRINCE GEORGE...SURRY AND SOUTHWESTERN JAMES CITY COUNTIES...

At 1236 PM EDT, a shower was located over Burrowsville, or 7 miles
southwest of Claremont, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Claremont, Surry, Elberon, Burrowsville, Garysville, Cabin Point,
Taylors Corner, Carsley, Spring Grove, Brandon, Delk Crossroads,
Barham, Governors Land, Gwaltney Corner, Oak Hill Corner, Savedge and
Beachland.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this shower, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3710 7708 3710 7712 3711 7715 3711 7718
      3726 7717 3731 7679 3704 7679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 268DEG 11KT 3718 7708

Poche

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E HOPEWELL            37.29N 77.28W
08/15/2020                   CITY OF HOPEWELL   VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS NUMEROUS PORTIONS
            OF PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY.

&&

CF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

VAZ082-089-090-151815-
Charles City-Surry-James City-
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHARLES CITY...SURRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN JAMES CITY COUNTIES...

At 134 PM EDT, a shower was located near Cabin Point, or near
Claremont, moving east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Claremont, Surry, Dendron, Scotland, Elberon, Jamestown, Cabin Point,
Carsley, Spring Grove, Governors Land, Gwaltney Corner, Oak Hill
Corner, Alliance, Runnymede, Savedge and Beachland.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this shower, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3710 7709 3719 7706 3719 7704 3720 7704
      3720 7703 3721 7701 3723 7702 3725 7697
      3724 7695 3724 7692 3726 7688 3726 7674
      3701 7682 3700 7685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 285DEG 5KT 3717 7698

Poche

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW GRAFTON           37.15N 76.48W
08/15/2020                   YORK               VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE DO TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&