Beach Hazards Statement 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

540 
WHUS41 KAKQ 092359
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

NCZ102-VAZ098-100100-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.BH.S.0004.000000T0000Z-200710T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

$$

VAZ099-100-100800-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0025.200710T0300Z-200710T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0005.200710T1200Z-200711T0000Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, high risk of rip 
  currents expected. For the Coastal Flood Statement, up to one 
  foot of inundation above ground level expected in low- lying 
  areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...For the Beach Hazards Statement, the Atlantic coast 
  portions of Accomack and Northampton counties. For the Coastal 
  Flood Statement, Bay side of the Virginia Eastern Shore.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, from Friday morning 
  through Friday evening. For the Coastal Flood Statement, from 
  11 PM EDT this evening through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Breaking waves of 
  3 to 5 ft will result in rough surf conditions and a high risk 
  of rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

SAXIS VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/04 AM     3.2        1.7        0.9        2       NONE    
 10/05 PM     3.1        1.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 11/05 AM     3.2        1.7        1.0        1       NONE    
 11/06 PM     3.1        1.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 12/05 AM     2.9        1.4        0.9        1       NONE

CHINCOTEAGUE INLET VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.2 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/12 AM     3.5        0.7        0.8       1-2      NONE    
 10/01 PM     2.9        0.1        0.7        1       NONE    
 11/01 AM     3.1        0.3        0.6        1       NONE    
 11/01 PM     2.8        0.0        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/02 AM     3.1        0.3        0.8        1       NONE    
 12/02 PM     3.0        0.2        0.8        1       NONE

NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/02 AM     3.0        1.0        1.3        3      MINOR    
 10/02 PM     2.4        0.4        0.9       2-3      NONE    
 11/03 AM     2.2        0.2        0.6        1       NONE    
 11/04 PM     2.2        0.2        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/03 AM     2.1        0.1        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/04 PM     2.4        0.4        0.8        1       NONE

WACHAPREAGUE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.5 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 3.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/01 AM     5.4        0.9        1.1        1       NONE    
 10/01 PM     4.7        0.2        0.8        1       NONE    
 11/02 AM     4.8        0.3        0.7        1       NONE    
 11/02 PM     4.5        0.0        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/02 AM     4.5        0.0        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/03 PM     4.5        0.0        0.5        1       NONE

OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/01 AM     6.7        2.1        1.8        1       NONE    
 10/01 PM     4.9        0.3        0.9        1       NONE    
 11/01 AM     5.6        1.0        1.0        1       NONE    
 11/02 PM     4.7        0.1        0.7        1       NONE    
 12/02 AM     5.0        0.4        0.7        1       NONE    
 12/03 PM     5.0        0.4        0.9        1       NONE

KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 10/01 AM     4.0        1.0        1.3       2-3      NONE    
 10/01 PM     3.3        0.3        0.8       1-3      NONE    
 11/01 AM     3.1        0.1        0.6        1       NONE    
 11/02 PM     3.2        0.2        0.7        1       NONE    
 12/02 AM     3.0        0.0        0.6        1       NONE    
 12/03 PM     3.3        0.3        0.8        1       NONE

&&

$$

MDZ025-100800-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0005.200710T1200Z-200711T0000Z/
Maryland Beaches-
759 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...High risk of rip currents expected.

* WHERE...Maryland Beaches.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft will result in rough 
  surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Butner

457 
WHUS41 KAKQ 100855
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
455 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

VAZ099-100-101700-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.CF.S.0025.000000T0000Z-200710T0900Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0005.200710T1200Z-200711T0000Z/
Accomack-Northampton-
455 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...A high risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...Accomack and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft will result in rough 
  surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NCZ102-VAZ098-101700-
/O.EXA.KAKQ.BH.S.0005.200710T1200Z-200711T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
455 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...A high risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Virginia Beach. In North Carolina, 
  Eastern Currituck County.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 5 ft will result in rough 
  surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

MDZ025-101700-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0005.200710T1200Z-200711T0000Z/
Maryland Beaches-
455 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...High risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...Maryland Beaches.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft will result in rough 
  surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves slowly northeast along the North Carolina
coast today and tonight before lifting northeast along the Mid
Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will
linger along the coast through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest MSAS shows weak high pressure over the Va Piedmont with
low pressure just east of MHX. The system seems to be getting
better organized as the sat loop is showing cooling cloud tops
and sct convection out over the Gulf Stream this morning. NHC
conts to monitor for potential tropical development over the
next 24 hrs.

Models and current data suggests this systems track is just off
the NC coast thru 21Z, then slowly turning it nnw and moving it
towards HAT by 00Z. This slower track will result in some
significant changes to the grids today. Main change was to lower
PoPs across the board this morning, then bring likely PoPs into
sern VA/nern NC this aftrn. Chc PoPs elsewhere with only a
20-30 PoP along and west of I95 and lwr Md ern shore as the weak
high slowly gives way to the storms moisture fields. Thunder
was cut back as well, basically limited to the aftrn given
modest instability in the tropical airmass. Depending on radar
trends this morning, will have to monitor for possible
waterspouts in the outer most bands of the systm as they apprch
the nrn OB/sern Va.

QPF was also cut back thru 00z, with amts btwn 1/2 to 3/4 inch
limited to far sern VA/nern NC zones. A flash flood watch was
considered starting today, but given the uncertainty and
changing trends, decided to hold off on any watch and let the
day shift evaluate the need for one later today.

Otw, Pt sunny skies become mstly cldy. Highs low-mid 80s east, btwn
85-90 west where there will be more sun and less pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Models in decent agreement tracking the systm near or along the nrn
OB this eve, just east of Va Beach late tonight then hugging
the Delmarva coastline Fri morning before pushing north into NJ
Fri aftrn. Data also suggests the greatest wind affects will be
over the waters, but moisture fields (highest PW's) show a
significant surge of tropical moisture accompanying the systm
as it tracks north tonight and Fri. There will also be a sharp
pcpn gradient west of the Ches Bay. Thus, PoPs will be highest
tonight and Fri along the coast with chc PoPs to the west. QPF
is anthr challenge and will likely determine where a ff watch
will be needed. Best guess attm will be along the ern shore
where a general 2-3 inch rainfall is expected with amts up to 4
inches from SBY-OXB. 1 to 1.5 inches over the Ches Bay and sern
Va/nern NC with much less amts to the west. Lows tonight upr
60s- lwr 70s. Skies will likely become pt sunny Fri as the systm
moves ne pulling in drier air on gusty NW winds. Highs mid 80s
along the ern shore, upr 80s-lwr 90s west of the Ches Bay.

The system continues to track NE of the local area Fri night and
Sat. However, lingering moisture along a lagging trof keeps the chc
for sct convection going. Lows Fri night in the low-mid 70s.
Highs Sat in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. HI values Sat in the upr 90s-
lwr 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Overall the operational models are in decent agreement with a
Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the
extended period, but the strength of the trough differs. The GFS
is sharpest and deepest during the period while the ECMWF is
quicker to begin lifting the trough out toward the end of the
period. For now have blended between the two with having more
convective activity early in the period on Sunday and Monday
with a stronger trough and an associated sfc cold front moving
into the area. Then begin to lessen the chances for convection
by mid week as the surface front dissipates and the Bermuda High
starts to rebuild into the SE US. The pops are mainly diurnal
with the best chances for pcpn late in the afternoon into the
early evening. For temperatures have kept readings in the low
90s through the period, but should the trough deepen a little
more on Sunday into Monday, would not be surprised to see
temperatures held down just a touch into the upper 80s for early
in the week. But overall should not be far from normal with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

Sct showers in advance of the coastal low will continue to move
generally W through the afternoon. After 00z, showers in the
piedmont should diminish while still remaining likely for
coastal taf sites as the low begins to move N and diurnal
instability is lost further inland. The heaviest rainfall will
occur near SBY between 03-12z tomorrow as the low tracks just
offshore of the Eastern Shore. Primarily MVFR ceilings will
prevail through the 18z taf period with occasionally VFR
conditions. However, SBY will likely experience a prolonged
period of IFR ceilings and visibility due to heavy rainfall near
the center of the low between 03-15z. Winds are generally NE
10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kts near the coast. Winds will become
N tonight before becoming NW tomorrow morning as the low moves
N. Visibility could decrease to around 2-3 SM in any heavier
showers.

OUTLOOK...
Flight conditions begin to improve late tomorrow as the low
pulls away and the region enters an area of subsidence.
Conditions generally improve over the weekend, although
afternoon/evening showers and storms may result in brief flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon surface analysis shows deepening ~1008mb low pressure off
the NC coast with high pressure to the east/well offshore. Winds are
out of the east at 15-20 knots with gusts 20-25 knots across the
bay, lower James, Currituck sound, and southern coastal waters. Seas
are building to 4-6 ft S and 3-4 ft N. Waves are on the increase in
the southern bay at 1-3 ft.

Low pressure off of Wilmington, NC this morning has lost definition
this afternoon as a new area of low pressure attempts to form under
robust convection east of Cape Hatteras. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter
C130 is investigating this area of low pressure for tropical
development and has recently found some westerly winds within the
circulation, suggesting a closed low has formed. Model guidance
shows this low being pulled northward and potentially NNW for a
period this evening and tonight as the low pressure consolidates
with the remnants of the older surface low. Still think the mean
motion of the low will be northward (20-30nmi offshore) overnight
with some gradual deepening expected. The low is forecast to be
near/east of the mouth of the bay after midnight tonight and moving
northward along/off the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore by
sunrise. The low will be north of our waters mid to late afternoon
on Friday. Current forecast has winds 20-25 knots with gusts 30
knots offshore with direction transitioning from E-NE-N-NW-W based
on the position of the low. Greatest potential for gusts aoa 35
knots will exist across the coastal waters north of Parramore Island
late tonight into early Friday. 15-20 knots will prevail in the bay
through this evening with some increase late tonight to 20-25 knots
with gusts to 30 knots (especially our northern bay zones) as the
low makes its closest approach. Waves build to 3-4 ft tonight in the
bay. 4-6 ft seas over the southern coastal waters will begin to
decrease by sunrise Friday. Farther north, seas increase to 5-8 ft
tonight and will be slow to subside to 4-5 ft by late Friday
afternoon.

Left headlines largely unchanged for the overnight period with SCAs
in effect for all waters except the upper James, York, and
Rappahannock rivers. SCAs end from south to north into Friday
afternoon. Northern coastal waters may need to be extended a few
hours depending on how seas behave.

Behind the departing low pressure, southerly flow will quickly
resume ahead of an approaching trough and cold front on Saturday.
The front looks to cross the waters Saturday evening into the
overnight.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide
cycles on Thursday and Friday. Water level rises of around 1 ft
above normal tide possible.

High risk of rip currents on Thursday for Virginia Beach and NE
NC beaches. Moderate risk of rip currents for the MD/VA eastern
shore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631-650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>097-
509>525-102045-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-
Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-102045-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-102045-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could produce some
localized flash flooding across the area overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could produce some
localized flash flooding across the area Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-102045-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
435 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could produce some
localized flash flooding across the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could produce some
localized flash flooding across the area Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.