Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

737 
WWAK47 PAJK 042056
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1156 AM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020


AKZ027-042200-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200104T2100Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
1156 AM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

Snow showers have diminished throughout the morning. Total
accumulations range from 1 to 3 inches near sea level, as reported
by multiple spotters.

$$

AKZ029-050100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Misty Fjords-
Including the city of Hyder
1156 AM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 15 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Misty Fjords.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Largest snowfall rates expected late
  Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ028-050100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.200105T0600Z-200105T1200Z/
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Ketchikan and Metlakatla
1156 AM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 7 
  inches.

* WHERE...Southern Inner Channels.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

163 
WWAK47 PAJK 050016
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020


AKZ029-051330-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Misty Fjords-
Including the city of Hyder
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 10
  inches.

* WHERE...Misty Fjords.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Largest snowfall rates expected late
  Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ028-051330-
/O.EXT.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.200105T0016Z-200105T1500Z/
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Ketchikan and Metlakatla
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 5 inches. 

* WHERE...Southern Inner Channels.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

133 
WWAK47 PAJK 050106 CCA
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020


AKZ029-051330-
/O.COR.PAJK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Misty Fjords-
Including the city of Hyder
406 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 10
  inches. Storm total snow of 8 to 15 inches expected.

* WHERE...Misty Fjords.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Largest snowfall rates expected late
  Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ028-051330-
/O.COR.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.200105T0016Z-200105T1500Z/
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Ketchikan and Metlakatla
406 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 5 inches. 

* WHERE...Southern Inner Channels, including Ketchikan.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

206 
WWAK47 PAJK 050736
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1036 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020


AKZ028-050845-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Ketchikan and Metlakatla
1036 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have warmed above freezing and the heaviest snowfall
has tracked further east than previously expected. Some lighter
amounts of snow are possible through the early morning hours but
significant accumulations are not expected at this time.

$$

AKZ029-051500-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Misty Fjords-
Including the city of Hyder
1036 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches. Storm total snow of 8 to 15 inches expected.

* WHERE...Misty Fjords.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snowfall rates are expected to last
  until just after midnight before slowly diminishing through the
  early morning hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

304 
WWAK47 PAJK 051340
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
440 AM AKST Sun Jan 5 2020

AKZ029-051445-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200105T1500Z/
Misty Fjords-
Including the city of Hyder
440 AM AKST Sun Jan 5 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The band of heavy snow has moved east into British Columbia and
snow has nearly ended. Some additional accumulations from light 
snow could fall through Sunday morning. 

$$

AKZ022-060245-
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.200106T0300Z-200106T1200Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove and Pelican
440 AM AKST Sun Jan 5 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches.
  Best snowfall rates in the late evening. 

* WHERE...Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ020-060245-
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.200106T0600Z-200106T1500Z/
Glacier Bay-
Including the city of Gustavus
440 AM AKST Sun Jan 5 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 
  inches. Best snowfall rates around midnight. 

* WHERE...Glacier Bay.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKST Fri Jan 3 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Friday Evening through Sunday Night/ A developing
low moving northward over Haida Gwaii today will have impacts on
the Southern Panhandle through tonight. A deep sub 500mb upper
low over the Northern Gulf and Southcentral Alaska will steer
another system into the Panhandle on Saturday. As that system
pushes east into Canada, another low develops in the Northern
Gulf on Sunday.

The first significant weather system affecting the region is
currently moving northward over Haida Gwaii increasing clouds and
precipitation over the Southern Panhandle. Ongoing overrunning
snow event will continuing into the overnight period. Current
thinking is that the center of the surface low will move
northward along the Alaska/BC border this evening passing by Hyder
later tonight. The track of the low will put the deformation band
around Misty Fjords where the highest snow totals are expected to
occur. The best lift for heavy snowfall is expected to be from
around Ketchikan and points eastward. Based on latest guidance and
observations, have issued a Winter Storm Warning for Ketchikan
and Metlakatla and increased the total snowfall accumulations to 6
to 10 inches through early tomorrow morning. Misty Fjords and
Hyder are expected to see the heaviest snowfall with totals over a
foot in some spots by Saturday morning. Points west of Ketchikan,
including towns on Prince of Wales Island, snowfall amounts are
expected to be lighter as the best lift will be towards the east
closer to the low. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
is expected for Craig and Klawock and other towns on POW Island.

The Northern Panhandle remains cold and calm through midday
Saturday as northerly winds from Canada are keeping most locations
north of Frederick Sound dry.

The low over the Northern Gulf and Southcentral Alaska has a
couple of centers of energy and one of the will move into the
eastern gulf area on Saturday. Model consensus here is split
between the US Models and Euro/Canadian solutions. The difference
is strength and placement of the low/front that move into the
Southeast Gulf and then lifts northward into the central panhandle
on Saturday. The snow with this one should get as far north as
the Juneau area. Based on how models initialized today, went with
the Canadian/Euro solution which features a broader/weaker surface
low pushing a front into the Panhandle from the south midday
Saturday and a surface low pushing onshore around the Central
Panhandle Sunday morning. Right now, light accumulations are
expected for much of the Central and Southern Panhandle, including
Juneau, Saturday evening.

Another low looks to develop in the Northern Gulf on Sunday
bringing another chance for accumulating snow to portions of the
Northern Panhandle, possibly including Juneau, Sunday night into
Monday. Confidence is low on timing and exact snowfall totals at
this time. Models are not handling this pattern very well with
multiple systems impacting the Panhandle this weekend. Confidence
in the forecast for Saturday evening and Sunday is not high and
will need to be watched closely as guidance comes more into
agreement with how these next systems will evolve. Confidence is
higher in this weather pattern supporting below average
temperatures and the chance for snow persisting through the
weekend and into early next week.

For winds, locally breezy conditioned prompted strong wind
headlines in the Juneau area with a few hours of easterly outflow,
and then the Lynn Canal area and the Skagway region with north
winds as the low moving over Haida Gwaii tightens the pressure
gradient there. Lynn Canal will have Gale Warnings in the marine
forecast.

.LONG TERM...Once again, long-term consensus has been a pipe
dream, and our best efforts have pushed us to fine-tune weather
events two days out. Models are honing in on yet another feature
riding northward along the baroclinic zone, west of Haida Gwaii
Friday night and west of Prince of Wales Saturday, and into the
south-central Panhandle Saturday night. Its track and orientation
will seem to infuse the southern Inner channels with some warmer
air, thus saving Ketchikan from a potential one-two punch, if
conditions worsen Friday afternoon from our current forecast.
Other areas to watch are Wrangell and Petersburg, possibly
Angoon on Saturday. Because of this system, winds from the north-
central Panhandle northward were turned north if they were south
before, and winds across the south were eased, especially as the
low moves ashore. Because of another low in the northern gulf
forming Saturday night/Sunday, we turned most winds over the gulf
to westerly into Sunday. But otherwise, pop/qpf/snow forecast
looked reasonable given such poor consistency of solutions through
the weekend. Beyond Sunday lie hints of yet another potentially
good storm rising northward, perhaps arriving with another
potential southern Panhandle snow event. Meanwhile there are some
signs of northern Panhandle snow late this weekend and Monday from
a northern gulf clipper. However, confidence is weak.

We used NAM, GFS, ECMWF for edits to the forecast.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ028-029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043.

&&

CM/JWA

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