Storm Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

979 
FZAK51 PAJK 290002
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-291645-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low will enter the east-central Gulf from the south
on Tuesday night and then track towards the north Gulf coast by 
Wednesday morning. High seas of 35 to 40 ft will build into the 
eastern Gulf on Wednesday. Outlook. A second storm force low will 
enter the Gulf on Wednesday night and cross the central outer 
coast on Thursday while still very strong. 

$$

PKZ011-291645-
Glacier Bay-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas building to 4 ft. Rain and snow showers early in the 
evening, then rain and snow. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. Rain and snow late. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-291645-
Northern Lynn Canal-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the evening, then  
increasing to 30 kt late. Seas building to 6 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers early in the evening, then rain and snow. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt shifting SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 7 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain and snow showers
in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Snow
showers and rain showers in the evening, then rain with snow
late. 
.THU...NW gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-291645-
Southern Lynn Canal-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the evening, then 
increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. Rain showers early in 
the evening, then rain. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 7 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the 
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing, then shifting N 25 kt late.
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the evening, then rain late. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-291645-
Icy Strait-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6
ft. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 4 ft. Snow 
showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-291645-
Cross Sound-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building 
to 14 ft late. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming NE late. Seas 21 ft. S swell. 
Rain late.
.THU...NE gale to 35 kt shifting SW in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-291645-
Stephens Passage-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain
late.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt, then diminishing to
20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 feet subsiding in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-291645-
Northern Chatham Strait-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas building to 6
ft. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the
morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt shifting SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-291645-
Southern Chatham Strait-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt. 4 ft building to 9 
ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft building to 19 ft. Rain 
showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft, except 24 ft near ocean entrances. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 45 kt late. Seas 4 
ft building to 9 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 22 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening, then rain late. 
.THU...S storm force wind to 60 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft, except 22 ft near ocean entrances. Rain 
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 17 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-291645-
Frederick Sound-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 
7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
late.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming SW storm force to 55 kt in the
morning, then diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-291645-
Sumner Strait-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt in the evening. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft 
building to 11 ft. Rain showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft.
Near ocean entrances, seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt late.
Out of interior passes, gusts to 50 kt late. Seas 6 ft, except
13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the evening, then
rain late. 
.THU...S storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft, except 14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain 
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, except 35 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-291645-
Clarence Strait-
302 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft building to 15 
ft. Showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain in the morning, then 
rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SE storm force wind to 55 kt 
late. Gusts to 70 kt late, Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft late. Out 
of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt increasing to 55 kt late. Near 
ocean entrances, seas 13 ft. Rain showers in the evening, then 
rain late. 
.THU...SW storm force wind to 55 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the
afternoon except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft, 
except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

817 
FZAK51 PAJK 291310
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300330-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force front lifts N across the eastern gulf this
morning. A ridge builds over SE Alaska this afternoon and
persists this evening. A hurricane-force low then tracks NE into
the eastern gulf Thu morning and into the North and Central 
Panhandle mid-day Thu. 

$$

PKZ011-300330-
Glacier Bay-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming E. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Snow and snow in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Rain and snow showers late. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-300330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt in
the evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-300330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain early in the morning, then rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt in
the evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-300330-
Icy Strait-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain early in the morning, then
rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers late. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming W gale to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-300330-
Cross Sound-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft 
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E late. Seas 19 ft. S swell.
Rain showers late. 
.THU...NE gale to 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain and
snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-300330-
Stephens Passage-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers
late. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
North of Taku Inlet, E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-300330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain early in
the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Gusts to 35 kt late.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers late. 
.THU...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-300330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing. Seas 7 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 19 ft building to 24 ft. Rain early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except
21 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 22 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 17 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-300330-
Frederick Sound-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E late. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas
5 ft. Rain showers late.
.THU...S storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SW gale to 40 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-300330-
Sumner Strait-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing. Seas 6 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 12 ft building to 21 ft in the morning, then 
subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft, except 
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...S gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain 
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, except 35 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-300330-
Clarence Strait-
410 AM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain early in the morning, then rain showers in 
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft
building to 11 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 13 ft. Rain
showers. 
.THU...S storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 70 kt in the morning, Seas 17 ft subsiding to
10 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 20 ft 
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. Showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
155 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...Very active and high impact weather pattern
continues in the short term. High winds, heavy snow and rain, and
very high seas are expected over the next 48 hours and potentially
longer.

Currently SE AK is between systems as a large upper trough remains
centered over the western Gulf. Expansive cold airmass is noted
over the western and central Gulf and some of this air will be
streaming eastward over SE AK over the next 24 hours. This cold
air will be modified somewhat by its traverse over the warmer Gulf
waters and thus will not be as deep or as cold as the airmass that
was in place ahead of the system from a couple of days ago. A
shortwave rotating around the main upper trough will enhance snow
shower activity through the night over the NE Gulf coast and thus
have extended the Winter Weather Advisory there through midnight to
account for this. Winds remain strong out of the south over upper
Lynn Canal this afternoon due to strong SW flow over the mtns and
the resulting lee troughing effect increasing local pressure
gradients. These winds should gradually diminish Tuesday as the
next storm approaches from the S.

Attention then turns to the vigorous PV max now seen on GOES 17
WV imagery over the NPAC along 50N 160W. All guidance indicates
that as this PV lifts into the Gulf on Tuesday, that some degree
of phasing will occur between it and the polar trough over the
western Gulf. Surface low will deepen to around 955 mb on Tuesday
over the western Gulf. Rapidly occluding and storm force front
will move into the eastern Gulf Tuesday night and across the
Panhandle Wednesday morning. Surface wave looks to form on the
front and track either along or just E of 140W late Tuesday
night. This is a very favorable track for high winds over the
southern Panhandle and Gulf coastal areas. Low level wind fields
are quite impressive, with 80 to 90 kt of SE flow at 925 and 850
mb. Forecast profiles from hi-res models show 50 to 55kt as low as
500 ft near Ketchikan, Sitka, and Prince of Wales Islands late
Tuesday night. Surface pressure gradients will favor high winds
over much of the southern and central panhandle with the PASI-PAKT
gradient peaking at 16mb late Tuesday night. Storm force winds
will spread from the eastern Gulf into Clarence Strait with gales
over many of the rest of the inside waters S of Lynn Canal. Wind
gusts to 60 mph or higher are expected in land areas adjacent to
these channels so went with a High Wind Warning for a large part
of the southern and central Panhandle for this time frame.

Further north, at least some colder air will be in place so that
heavy snow will once again be an issue for far upper Lynn Canal.
60 to 80 kt of deep S'ly to SE'ly moisture transport will likely
lead to snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour at times for the
Haines and Klondike Highways. With the cold air source being a
longer trajectory over the Gulf, think that sea level Haines and
Skagway will be able to transition to a rain/snow mix by Wednesday
morning as a mix out of the cold air will occur. Further up the
highways, heavy snow will continue through Wednesday. When it's
all said and done, expect yet another 12 to 24 inches of snow for
areas already hard hit by last weekends storm. Highest amounts
will be over the upper elevations of both highways.

Confidence is high on the impact of this storm but a bit lower in
the details, such as timing of the high winds and snow to rain
changeover etc.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...The active weather
pattern appears very likely to continue in the extended range
into the weekend. The split flow pattern that is in place is
challenging in the sense that Southeast AK could experience rain
or snow, but small details that are difficult to devine in the
long term forecast are not quite available. We do know that
precipitation will likely continue to fall each day through
Saturday, and if snow does fall, it could be impactful.

Ensemble agreement is good in the overall synoptic pattern over
the Gulf of Alaska. Large upper trof will remain in place across
the western parts of AK extending over the W gulf. Early Wednesday
an upper shortwave rotating around the trof will move N across
the eastern gulf and lift across the panhandle. At the surface the
low pressure system remains and issue with a complex of multiple
waves possible as the low moves northward into the N gulf through
Wednesday. Low level temperatures will briefly warm as the front
lifts north across the panhandle early Wednesday, but colder air
is expected to wrap in behind the low and across the E gulf and
panhandle later in the day. Currently expecting this system to
provide a rain/snow mix across the Icy Strait corridor, including
Juneau, while the more impactful snowfall is likely across the N
Lynn areas including Haines and Skagway where temperatures will
likely remain near or below freezing.

Another wave will move NE out of the NPAC into the SE gulf by
Thursday morning. This system has the potential to the be an
impactful wind event where and if it makes landfall across the
panhandle. Operational models all depict a rapidly developing low,
but handle the details very differently. The placement of the low
will also determine where impactful snow will be possible
Thursday. Did increase winds to gales in the E gulf but future
work will need to be done with better consensus. By Friday, there
is more disagreement between the models, but still expect a
surface low to be churning in the N gulf through Saturday. By
Sunday there is a chance for a brief break as a ridge moves east
across the gulf and panhandle. Overall forecast confidence is
average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ023-026>028.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-031-033-036-053.

&&

DEL/DDH

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