Storm Warning 53, NWS Juneau, AK

723 
FZAK52 PAJK 221828 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-230730-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An approaching storm force front bumps a ridge of high pressure 
over the southern Inner Channels into BC this morning. The front 
then arrives in the northern gulf this morning, proceeds to the 
eastern gulf coast tonight, and clears the southern Inner Channels
Wed. A ridge of high pressure builds across the SE gulf Wed. 

$$

PKZ041-230730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to
16 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 24 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-230730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 20 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-230730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-230730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building
to 25 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-230730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
928 AM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt. Seas 14 ft building
to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

331 
FZAK52 PAJK 230008
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-231815-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front moves across the eastern gulf this evening, 
then into the panhandle overnight. The SELY high winds persist 
over the Southern Inner Channels into Wed followed by a wind shift
to the W-SW. High pressure briefly passes over the central 
panhandle late Wed night. Outlook. Low pressure approaches from 
the south Thu night with increasing NELY outflow winds. 

$$

PKZ041-231815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt in the evening. Gusts to 
60 kt late. Seas 12 ft building to 26 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 17 ft. SW
swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-231815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 50 kt in the evening. Seas 15 ft
building to 28 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell in the
evening. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-231815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 50 kt in the evening, then
becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 16 ft building to 31 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-231815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 55 kt in the evening. Gusts to 
70 kt late. Seas 23 ft building to 31 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-231815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
308 PM AKST Tue Dec 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Gusts to 80 kt in
the evening. Seas 23 ft building to 32 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

103 
FZAK52 PAJK 231543 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240715-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front moves inland over the inner channels today.
High pressure briefly passes over the central  panhandle late
tonight into Thursday. The next low pressure system approaches
from the south Thursday night into Friday.  

$$

PKZ041-240715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the morning, then
becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft. Rain early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 18 ft. SW swell in
the evening. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 25 ft
subsiding to 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding
to 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
414 AM AKST Wed Dec 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
217 PM AKST Mon Dec 21 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Wednesday night/...Monday has
been a relatively calm day with light winds and mostly cloudy
skies in most areas with some isolated light convective showers
and isolated fog around the Panhandle.

This short-lived lull will quickly come to an end as a potent
storm-force frontal system moves toward southeast Alaska for the
Tuesday night through Wednesday night timeframe, bringing with it
heavy rain for the majority of the Panhandle and appreciable snow
amounts for the Haines and Klondike Highway areas. Model guidance
continues to show that there will be a deep layer of moisture
across the Panhandle with a deep layer of cold air for areas west
of Haines and north of Skagway, as well.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for inland areas on the
Klondike highway north of Skagway and the Haines Highway west of
Haines for 7 to 14 inches of snow from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. This system is carrying with it a long fetch of
deep moisture originating from the central Pacific "Pineapple
Express" region aimed toward southeast Alaska. As forecast
soundings show, a deep layer of cold air, extending all the way to
the surface, will be in place for these areas to receive
significant and impactful snow amounts. Use extra caution and take
extra time if you must travel these highways Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. Prepare for limited visibility and
slippery roads.

For the rest of southeast Alaska, the primary form of
precipitation should remain rain as warm air advection as can be
seen at 850 mb in the models will be pushing into the central and
southern Panhandle ahead of the front, keeping temperatures
fairly steady in the middle 30s to lower 40s on average for most
places. As for the models, they are in pretty good agreement about
this scenario for the short- term forecast period. This is
another atmospheric river scenario for southeast Alaska with model
forecast Vertically Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) values
of 700 to 800 kg/(ms) as the frontal system approaches the
Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected
across the Panhandle with higher amounts possible in areas that
favor upsloping. Flooding is a concern.

The outside waters, inner channels, and the Panhandle will see
strong winds due to a tight pressure gradient between a strong
high in British Columbia and the approaching frontal system.
Mariners should exercise extra caution Tuesday into Wednesday if
they must venture out due to the high winds and waves. Operators
of more susceptible high profile vehicles should use extra
caution while driving in the gusty winds. These winds could blow
down trees and power lines. A High Wind Watch is in effect from
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning for the Juneau/Douglas area
and Gulf coastal areas in the central and northern Panhandle
including Port alexander, Sitka, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Yakutat.
As the front moves inland over the Panhandle, the associated low
will move inland over south-central Alaska and weaken.

Fog remains a possibility over some areas in the central and
southern Panhandle Monday evening into Tuesday morning due to
decreased cloudiness and calmer winds preventing convective mixing
and allowing for good radiational cooling to occur.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Monday as of 9 pm Sunday / Major
frontal feature finishes moving through Southeast Alaska
Wednesday, with a small feature running northward on the front as
it moves through the panhandle. A large broad area of low
pressure will slowly weaken over the Bering Sea. The good model
agreement in regards to the big front comes to a halt on
Wednesday. Thursday to into the weekend, the pattern over the
gulf looks much more confused a broad area of lower pressure that
is expected to persist. The various operational solutions have
difference in features, strengths, and locations moving through
the gulf during the weekend.

The Misty Fjords region will continue to keep snow falling as a
low level offshore cooler flow reinforcing the surface
temperatures. Will continue to watch the potential snow event for
the mid week.

There is one bit of minor agreement in the chaos for the last part
of the week, and that occurs Friday morning with a more developed
low moving northward just offshore of Haida Gwaii and the
panhandle. If that stays in the forecast, there could be a
significant system Christmas morning over the southern panhandle.
At the present, have there is a weaker version from WPC than the
operational solutions, that we can fine tune with future model
runs. Overall, think there will be moderate confidence on the
weather system for Friday, with lower than average confidence for
the weekend and start of the weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ025.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
     for AKZ017-022-023.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-053.

&&

JLC/Bezenek

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