Storm Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

998 
FZAK52 PAJK 010030
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-011830-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will move across the eastern Gulf Monday
night. The front will then linger over the inner channels into
Wednesday keeping seas elevated. 

$$

PKZ041-011830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt. Seas 16 ft building
to 24 ft late. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 27 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 19 ft subsiding to
11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-011830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt. Seas 15 ft building
to 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 27 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 18 ft subsiding to
11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-011830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 50 kt. Seas 15 ft building to
22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-011830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-011830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
330 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the evening, then
becoming S 30 kt late. Gusts to 70 kt in the evening. Seas 16 ft
building to 20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft. 

$$

117 
FZAK52 PAJK 011254
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-020700-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will continue to move across the eastern Gulf
Tuesday morning. The front will then linger along the outer coast
maintaining high winds and seas. 

$$

PKZ041-020700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.THU...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-020700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-020700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-020700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 
21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. 
.WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-020700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
354 AM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. 

$$

657 
FZAK52 PAJK 020034
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-021845-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will continue to move across the eastern Gulf
Tuesday night. The front will then linger along the outer coast 
maintaining high winds and seas. 

$$

PKZ041-021845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
22 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-021845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas
22 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-021845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. S swell. Rain in
the evening. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-021845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
early in the evening. Rain late. 
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-021845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

127 
FZAK52 PAJK 021301
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-030715-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Storm force winds will develop Wednesday morning ahead of a
front in the eastern Gulf. The front will move through the inner
channels during Wednesday and east of the area Wednesday  night
with diminishing winds and seas in all regions.  

$$

PKZ041-030715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt shifting SW 15 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft
building to 19 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-030715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt shifting SW 20 kt in the evening. Seas 
23 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. S swell in the morning.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building
to 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-030715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt shifting S 20 kt in the evening. Seas 23
ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-030715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt. Seas 18 ft building to
26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt shifting SW 20 kt in the evening, then
increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft late. 
Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-030715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
401 AM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain in the 
evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building
to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

848 
FZAK52 PAJK 030018
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-031830-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front over the eastern gulf will drift over the  inner
channels Wednesday night with diminishing winds and seas.
Another low will move into the southeast gulf Thursday night.  

$$

PKZ041-031830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW in the evening, then
becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-031830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 29 ft subsiding to
24 ft late. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
S swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 12 ft. S
swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-031830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the evening, then
becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 24 ft late. Rain 
in the evening.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. S
swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-031830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain in
the evening. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE late. Seas 11 ft. S
swell. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-031830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft. S
swell. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. S
swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building
to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Sun Nov 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon we sit on the edge of our seats
with eyes locked on an approaching storm force low that enters
the gulf Monday afternoon. This storm will blanket the panhandle
with a variety of hazards Monday through Thursday. But before
getting carried away, lets talk about this evening through Monday
morning. Satellite imagery shows a surface low located SE of
Kodiak Island streaming onshore showers across the northern and
central panhandle. This low will move into Prince William Sound
through the night allowing for shower activity to become scattered
across the north and central panhandle. An associated frontal
band has blanketed over the southern panhandle. Areas from Sitka
north have been seeing widespread showers through the afternoon
while areas to the south have been seeing more organized precip
with moderate to heavy rain at times. Furthermore, this evening, a
low will develop and surge north along the frontal boundary
impacting the southern panhandle. This will allow for precip rates
to stay elevated dropping an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain.
With continued rainfall, rivers have been rising across the south.
An areal Flood Advisory has been issued for the southern Inner
Channels until 9 PM tonight. Minor flooding is possible especially
for areas around Thorne River and Ward Lake. By late tonight,
precip will become more scattered as the low becomes displaced to
the east into BC.

Monday morning, weak surface ridging builds through the inner
channels while onshore flow keeps isolated to scattered showers
moving through the panhandle. These conditions persist ahead of
the next large system. By Monday evening, a storm force front will
have entered the central Gulf and will be heading towards the
panhandle. Winds will begin to increase through the inner channels
and over land Monday evening ahead of the frontal band. Storm
force winds along coastal marine areas along with high end gales
are expected through inner channels Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Over land, sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
55 mph are expected. For Yakutat and Sitka gusts to 60 mph are
possible prompting a High Wind Watch for the surrounding areas.

Not only will this system cause high winds but it will also
bring a atmospheric river producing widespread heavy rain with 3
hr rainfall rates anywhere between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. This has
historical significants has some areas will likely reach near
record rainfall amounts. With consistent heavy rainfall rates
flooding becomes a concern. A Flood Watch has been issued for the
central and northern panhandle. This storm will have deep moisture
support with a large fetch from the southern Gulf. Moisture
support will remain through Wednesday night allowing for
impressive 48 hr rainfall amounts between 5 to 10 inches across
the north central panhandle with 2 to 4 inches across the south.

With December fast approaching, lets not forget about the winter
weather potential. Although temperatures will not be conducive
for snow due to strong warm air advection with advancing frontal
band, areas across the far north will hold on to colder temps the
longest. Building high pressure in the Yukon will keep
temperatures near Haines Boarder Customs as well as White Pass
below freezing ahead of the front. With heavy rain rates producing
large QPF values combined with subfreezing temps, a Winter Storm
Watch has been issued from Monday night through Tuesday night for
the highways near Haines Boarder Customs and White Pass. The city
of Haines and Skagway are expected to see all rain as temperatures
surge above freezing.

Overall, a very busy week approaches. Analysis will continue as
this storm continues to approach the panhandle. Confidence is
moderate with the wind and heavy rain aspects of the forecast
with lower confidence on winter weather along the highways.
Ultimately, there remains room for forecast improvements as
better guidance and understanding of local dynamics develop.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/ Tuesday starts with
the atmospheric river in place across the northern panhandle and
the weather front running southward towards Hawaii. A developing
wave on the front will move along it into the northern panhandle
Wednesday enhancing the heavy precipitation for another 18 hours
or so into early Thursday morning. The front then moves into
Western Canada by Thursday midday. Rain will be letting up or
even briefly stopping by that afternoon. Totals from the event
are looking very impressive based on the climate stats, and are in
ranges that flooding and other related heavy rain issues become
much more likely. This will be looked at closely over the next
couple of shifts to monitor.

Warm air being driven north ahead of the front will have warmed
most highs in the 40s to near 50. Behind the front expect some
minor cooling, however most freezing levels will still be between
1000 and 2500 feet for the northern panhandle.

Depending on the intensity of the warming, and the snow level, the
higher elevations of the Klondike Highway could see a significant
event near the summit with accumulations 1 to 3 feet, thats only
if the warming doesn't completely rise above the 3000 foot level
there.

After that front, the confidence in the forecast shifts
drastically as cross model agreement has flown out the window.
They agree that there will be a low in the gulf Thursday, but
strength has differences of 15 to 20 mb and placement is roughly
500 nm. The panhandle should get some more rain, and potentially
some wind that would result in at least small craft being issued
for the marines. Ensemble guidance have a general idea the
weather more than a typical fall/early winter systems may impact
the panhandle.

At the tail end of the timeframe another low for the eastern gulf
moves out of the Pacific for Sunday, while a much more
significant very deep low (near 950 mb) moves east south of the
central Aleutians.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

CC/Bezenek

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