Storm Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

051 
FZAK52 PAJK 280014
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-281815-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moves north into Prince William Sound through tonight. A
storm force low enters the Gulf late tonight. Seas become high
as storm force front approaches the coast early Saturday
morning.  

$$

PKZ041-281815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
late. 
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late.
Seas 23 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft
building to 22 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-281815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft
building to 17 ft late. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 22 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-281815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft
building to 18 ft late. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 21 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-281815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 15 ft
building to 19 ft late. Rain. 
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-281815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
314 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 50 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
Rain. 
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft
building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

449 
FZAK52 PAJK 281312
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-290715-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front over the eastern gulf reaches the Panhandle
this afternoon and stalls across the southern Panhandle tonight.
Its parent low tracks NE across the western gulf to reach Prince
William Sound early Saturday. A gale force low tracks N to Dixon
Entrance Sunday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-290715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas
15 ft building to 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 21 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 27 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-290715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas
17 ft building to 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft
building to 21 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt. Seas
27 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-290715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft building to 23 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming S storm force wind to 50 kt.
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-290715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE storm force wind to 50 kt.
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-290715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
412 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt.
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

522 
FZAK52 PAJK 290004
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291815-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moves NE into Prince William Sound as a gale force front
moves through the eastern gulf coast Saturday evening. A gale 
force low moves north into Dixon Entrance Sunday. 

$$

PKZ041-291815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 24 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 22 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to gale to 35 kt. Seas
27 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening.  
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior bays and
passes. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
304 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sat/ Short range forecast is much quieter
for the first 24 hours compared to yesterday. The front from last
night passed through the area rather quickly and was mostly out of
the panhandle by mid to late Thu morning. We are left with onshore
flow and showers, some of which have been strong enough to produce
lightning against the terrain of the northern gulf coast earlier
today.

Friday's forecast features a drying trend in the morning (at least
for the southern 2/3rds) as a surface ridge moves over the area.
This does not last long as a weak low approaches from the W. There
is still disagreement on where this low goes for Fri afternoon.
All guidance has trended northward with its track, but there are
still two camps on where it goes. GFS and Nam are still in the
southern camp with the low now heading toward POW Island (Southern
panhandle mainly getting wet). The ECMWF and the Canadian are in
the northern camp with the low now heading toward Icy Bay (and
spreading showers over most of the panhandle). Favored the GFS
and the more southerly solution through still have some chances of
showers reaching over the rest of the panhandle Fri evening.

Fri night into Sat is the major concern as a gale force front
moves in from the west. Setup appears similar to the front that
just went through last night, but this one is stronger, wetter,
and will be coming through at a different time of day (during the
day Sat rather then at night). As a result while most areas will
see rain, areas around Icy Strait, Petersburg, and Hyder may see
some snow early on in the event with a few inches of accumulation.
The exception is the Haines and Klondike Highway areas where they
are likely to stay snow throughout the event. With higher QPF
expected from this system a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
both areas with around 5 to 9 inches possible on the Highways
Sat. The towns of Haines and Skagway themselves are much more
uncertain as temperatures will be warming throughout the event and
those two places could mix with or change over to rain mid day
lowering possible snow totals there.

Winds will also be a concern for the outer coast and southern
panhandle. Highest winds are expected more toward Sat afternoon
and night as the front moves closer. Gusts could reach as high as
40 to 55 mph in exposed areas. Marine areas will see wide spread
small craft winds and gales at the same time. We will continue to
update the forecast as we get closer to the event.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday night/...The song remains
the same for the long term. The train of storm systems will
continue throughout the period. Models remain in decent agreement
with respect to the timing of precipitation, showing the greatest
rates Saturday into early Sunday and then again Monday into
Tuesday with another bucket-full in the works for later in the
week. Each of these storms will draw in enough warm air to make
rain the predominant precipitation type, with the exception of the
northern inner channels and mountain peaks where snow may mix in
from time to time. With QPF amounts on the order of 1-2 inches
with each storm, the snowpack will definitely take a hit. Rivers
and streams will be watched as there will be no shortage of liquid
from the rain and melting snow.

In addition to being a wet week, each of these fronts will bring
southerly gales to the outside waters and near ocean entrances,
with small craft conditions expected throughout the inner channels
with each frontal passage.

To sum up the next week, expect to get wet and be safe if you're
on the waters.

-Linstid

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-041>043-051>053.

&&

EAL/Fritsch/Linstid

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