Storm Warning 31, NWS Juneau, AK

370 
FZAK52 PAJK 021153
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-030600-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front over the outer coast will move into the central
Panhandle Fri evening and then to the Southern Panhandle by
early Sat. S onshore flow will persist behind the front into 
Sat night.  

$$

PKZ041-030600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-030600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-030600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas building to 15 ft. SW swell. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-030600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 17 ft. Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening, then showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-030600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
353 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening, then showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building
to 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

200 
FZAK52 PAJK 022318
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-031730-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front over the central Panhandle will move to the Southern 
Panhandle by early Sat. S onshore flow will persist behind the 
front into Sat night. 

$$

PKZ041-031730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-031730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain early in the
evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Showers
late. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-031730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-031730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell early in the
evening. Rain in the evening. Showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-031730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain 
in the evening, then showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...A storm force low is
located south of the southwest Gulf and is moving north. This
system is in the process of becoming occluded and the warm sector
between the warm and cold front is over the eastern Gulf and
Panhandle as of early Friday afternoon. The warm front never
produced any meaningful precipitation over Southeast Alaska, but
the approaching cold front will beginning late Friday night. An
extended plume of moisture extends well to the south and is
expected to heavy precipitation at times from late Friday night
through Friday night. 24 hour storm totals during that time range
from slightly less than 1/2 inch to more than 2 inches with the
heaviest amounts over southern Baranof Island and over the ice
field from Juneau south to Endicott Arm.

Gale force winds will begin earlier than the precipitation will
and extend as far south as coastal marine zone 42 overnight. Storm
force winds will be confined to the coastal waters west of Icy Bay
late tonight but will be short lived. Winds will diminish through
the day, falling below small craft intensity overnight Friday
night. Residual high seas will persist into Saturday. On the
inside, there will not be a very strong response to this storm.
Exceptions will be the western portions of Icy Strait and Cross
Sound, where easterly small craft winds will develop tonight and
last through early Friday morning. The other exception will be
Clarence Strait, where small craft southeasterlies will develop
early Friday and last until the afternoon.

Forecast updated with NAM for winds and GFS with a little help
from NAM for PoP and QPF overall forecast confidence in average.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/ As of 10pm Wednesday.
Friday's front will be departing to the east early Saturday
morning. Showers will linger, especially along the northern gulf
coast due to CAA and SWLY onshore flow. Most locations will see a
diminishing trend to the showers through mid-day, especially on
the lee side of the mountains, with sunny breaks. As with all
cold fronts in the fall time, will need to watch for possible
thunderstorm development over the gulf.

Another low moves into the western gulf from the SW late Saturday
night. The assoc front will likely cause another round of gale
force winds over the outside waters and heavy rain looks likely
for Sunday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are forecasted
near Yakutat for this event and around 1 inch elsewhere. Some
models are showing enhancement near a triple point, which may
shift the focus of the greatest rainfall rates to the southern
panhandle Sunday night into Monday. Warm air is again drawn up by
this system, but not to the extreme of the previous systems. More
pronounced will be the cooling trend behind it and into the start
of next week. Again, the CAA and onshore flow will keep potential
for showers in the forecast and thunderstorm potential will need
to be monitored. The coldest air looks to stay over the western
gulf/Aleutians, but could see brisk mornings if timing of breaks
in the clouds line up with overnight hours. Also the snow level
will likely fall to the level of White Pass mid-week. Models
remain in relatively good agreement on the timing of fronts
through the mid range, so only minor adjustments were made to the
extended forecast.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ042-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-036-041-053.

&&

Fritsch/Ferrin

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