Storm Warning 28, NWS Juneau, AK

184 
FZAK52 PAJK 222332
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-231745-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
The storm force front over the eastern Gulf weakens Tuesday
night. A gale force low will enter the eastern Gulf late Tuesday
night and track northwest through Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ041-231745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-231745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-231745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 23 ft.
Showers.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-231745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
Showers.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-231745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 PM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
Showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

501 
FZAK52 PAJK 231143
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240545-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will over the southeastern Gulf will track
northwest and weaken through Wednesday. A second weaker low will
enter the eastern Gulf from the south on Thursday and move
north-northwest through Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ041-240545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Showers early in the morning. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. Showers late. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Showers in the
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 
ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers in the morning.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft.
Showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
Showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
343 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
229 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...Showers have been numerous today along the outer
coast and more scattered further inland as the showers get
shadowed by the mountains as they move across. Still think that a
more organized band could move inland to the Juneau area and even
up to Haines/Skagway this evening. Winds have been primarily out
of the E- SE around 10-15mph, but with some higher gusts out of
channels open to the east, like at Scull Island.

The story of the week is a very large low pressure system, currently
south of the Aleutians, with a huge occluded front wrapping around
it and extending to the central gulf. The front will progress
eastward tonight, with gale force winds of 35-45kt over the offshore
and outside waters by Tuesday morning. But rain and and the wind
looks to only just tag the outer coast land areas on Tuesday. This
is where the forecast starts to change. Models have come into better
agreement on the main low center taking a more southern track, but
with the occlusion remaining extended outward along the periphery of
the gulf. This should keep the front from making very far inland, so
have lowered POP for the inner channels and kept it highest for
Prince of Wales, Baranof Island and up to Yakutat.

Then on Tuesday night a new low center/trough forms along the front
off of Dixon Entrance. This will cause the front to back off the
coast and become oriented more E-W. The new, small low then rotates
about the parent low, through the gulf, taking a band of showers
with it through Wednesday morning. Some models give more weight to
the new low, making it the dominant one, but generally this pattern
of small lows rotating about the larger circulation (Fujiwara
effect) continues into Thursday. Expect multiple bands of showers
over the next few days with the highest POP over the southern
panhandle and lower POP for the northern inner channels. As each
band moves through, winds will likely become gusty for a period, or
even vary in wind direction. The further southern track of the
parent low will cause winds to shift out of the N-NE for most of the
northern and central inner channels.

Forecast confidence is below average for timing of specific bands
of showers.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/ As of Sunday evening. In
the upper levels, a broad area of troughing will dominate the
Gulf, with vorticity evident in the mid-levels. Closer to the
surface, a large corresponding low will move into the Gulf, the
remains of a strong autumn front lie along the panhandle and
embedded shortwaves moving towards the panhandle on Wednesday. The
front is spreading in more from the south than the west so the
better rains and winds are over the south, while a north or
northeast flow will be found over the northern panhandle. This
trend has continued so lowered pops for Wednesday to early
Thursday across the Lynn Canal area.

Beyond this event, forecast confidence degrades as it becomes
difficult to determine just how long the main low will remain in
the Gulf. The general trend is to keep most of the panhandle under
generally rainy conditions through the rest of the week. Some of
the ensembles are hinting at the possibility of another system
over the weekend, but still too far out to be very confident. Only
minor changes made to temperatures. Forecaster confidence is
average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

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