Storm Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

677 
FZAK52 PAJK 252344
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-261745-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A series of weather fronts will move from south to north across
the Panhandle through Thursday.  

$$

PKZ041-261745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-261745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain late.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-261745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-261745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain
and snow early in the evening, then rain. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-261745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
244 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow early in the evening.
Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...A modified polar airmass has settled over SE AK this
afternoon. The higher February sun angle has allowed temps to
climb into the mid 30s with the exception of 20s in the far
northern areas. Some peaks of sun through a high overcast have
made for a generally pleasant winter afternoon in most areas.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate once again late this evening
and overnight as the next strong occluded front approaches from
the south. Strong gale force easterly winds will occur ahead of
the front over the eastern Gulf waters, while winds hold generally
25kt or less over the inside waters. Some brief gale conditions
are possible in Lynn Canal and near interior passes as a
strengthening northerly pressure gradient between cold arctic high
pressure to the north and the approaching front will yield periods
of gusty outflow winds. Gusty easterly winds in downtown Juneau
and Douglas may reach 40 to 50 mph at times Tuesday morning prior
to the onset of precipitation but at this time, no high wind
warnings are anticipated. Mtn wave potential looks limited with no
true critical level and most of the wind being driven by synoptic
easterly cross barrier flow.

Precipitation will break out this evening over the south and
spread north overnight. Thickness values initially support snow
area-wide, but rapid warming aloft will ensue as the front
approaches and this will combine with the tendency for a well
mixed boundary layer in gusty easterly winds to raise snow levels
over the southern and central Panhandle overnight. Still could see
a couple of inches before the snow transitions to rain late
tonight. Further north, while the airmass in place is cool, the
true arctic boundary is still positioned over far northern Lynn
Canal. Thus expect the greatest snowfall totals in Haines and the
highway areas where the deeper, true arctic airmass is in place
for overrunning. Issued a winter storm warning for these areas as
this is likely to be a longer duration event with several waves of
light to moderate snowfall through Wednesday morning. All in all,
8 to 13 inches of new snow is likely in these areas by mid morning
Wednesday with lowest amounts near Skagway. In between, from
Juneau through the Icy Strait communities, the rain/snow scenario
gets muddled. Easterly flow will initially limit accumulations due
to local downslope effects. A burst of snowfall will likely occur
in these areas from mid morning Tuesday through the afternoon
hours. Think the models are overdoing qpf in the easterly flow
with no true arctic air to overrun. Thus limited snow total to 1
to 3 inches in Juneau with 3 to 5 in Hoonah and Pelican where they
are less susceptible to local downslope winds.

Most of the guidance drives the rain/snow line north of Icy Strait
by Tuesday evening, and thus have allow the precipitation to
change to rain in these areas prior to the next front approaching
from the south Tuesday night. Most guidance keeps the Panhandle in
a wet and breezy pattern though the remainder of the short term
period and little change was made to the forecast for Tuesday
night onward.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ As of 10pm Sunday. By
Wednesday morning, the front discussed in the short-term will be
progressing across the region with the rain/snow line pushing
north of the Icy Strait/Juneau region. Parts of the southern
panhandle will see some breaks in the rain initially behind the
front Wednesday, but a quick moving trough or small low may
enhance the rain showers down there for the evening. Timing of
this could change since it's a new feature that models are picking
up on.

Otherwise, a break in the weather will be negligible as another
system quickly moves in on Thursday, holding in the warm
temperatures from the previous system. The Thursday low tracks
across the Gulf of Alaska from SW to NE. This will continue the
gradual warming trend so expect primarily widespread rain, except
snow above 1000ft on the Klondike Highway.

A low passing to the south on Friday should allow the precip
threat to decrease. This is followed by mid-level ridging over the
gulf. There looks to be a fairly weak surface gradient at that
time, so winds on Saturday will probably be fairly light and
variable. The combination of this and breaks in the clouds could
mean fog potential, but temperatures will be cooling Friday
through Sunday morning, so frost is likely too. The next weather
front in our active pattern moves in during Sunday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031-033>036-053.

&&

DEL/Ferrin

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