Small Craft Advisory 652, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
550 AM AKST Fri Dec 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...A surface low is moving northward past Haida Gwaii
this morning and will be tracking northwest to be south of Prince
William Sound by Saturday morning. The associated moisture band
is moving through the panhandle from the south during the day and
and evening. As the low moves northwestward believe that the
northeastern portion of the panhandle will see a weaker version of
the front as it slows and falls apart moving through the
panhandle and or stalling near the outer coast. For the most part
precipitation will start as rain, the central and northern
panhandle may start as snow and mix or change over through Friday
and Friday night. The far northern sections of the panhandle are
likely to stay all snow during the event. Snow fall amounts Friday
and Friday night with the front will total up to 4 inches.

Ahead of the front there is a tighter pressure gradient between
the low in the gulf and higher pressure over NW Canada. Outflow
winds through Lynn Canal, out of Taku Inlet an through the
northeast coast range over the ice Field. Wind gusts this morning
for the land area are up to 40 to 45 mph. Lynn Canal, northern
Stephens Passage, and parts of Icy Strait are gusting to to nearly
50 kts. Expect to see these winds diminishing during the the day.
A burst of southerly winds to near 25-30 kt behind the front for a
couple of hours and this will move northwards today.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday / Still
on track to see a break in the weather through the end of the
weekend. High pressure should keep most areas precip free through
Sunday with the exceptions being isolated showers possible for
the southern inner channels and the northeast Gulf coast areas.
Winds begin to increase in the Gulf Sunday night into Monday as a
front pushes toward the region causing an increase in the pressure
gradient. Shower chances increase on Monday ahead of this front,
mainly along the coast from Yakutat to Sitka, but can't rule out
some showers reaching into the Icy Bay corridor. The front looks
to stall offshore on Tuesday leaving some lingering chances for
showers along the coast. High pressure should again be the
dominant feature for most locations as it pushes back on the
stalled front which should provide a good opportunity to open up
the skies again for a bit.

The next system to have any potential impact on the panhandle
will be a low moving in mid to late week. As of now, there is a
wide array of model solutions regarding timing and even specific
impacts regarding this system. GFS is suggesting some interaction
with the stalled front that could bring some decent rain to the
southern panhandle and spreading lesser amounts further north;
whereas the ECMWF brings a shot of rain to the region on Wednesday
before the main system misses the panhandle to the south almost
entirely. That being said, confidence is very low at this point in
the forecast, and continues through the duration.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018-025.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-032-053.

&&

Bezenek/JDR

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