Small Craft Advisory 430, NWS Juneau, AK

091 
FZAK53 PAJK 062356 CCA
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-071745-
Yakutat Bay-
338 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
251 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/ The periods of rain across the
southern tip of the panhandle have ended with the moisture band
cutoff and the remains of the band moving south into the central
British Columbia. Rest of the panhandle and Northeast Gulf Coast
enjoyed sunshine and temperatures into the 60s Sunday. High clouds
are beginning to spread into the Northeast Gulf Coast this
evening. Rain follows the high clouds and will reach Yakutat by
morning with a 3 to 5 hour period of moderate to heavy rainfall
moving to the northern panhandle. It will move across the northern
and central panhandle into early Tuesday. A second wave on the
front from the western gulf and northern will move another low to
the Yakutat area on Tuesday.

High pressure ridging over the southeast gulf and southern
panhandle will steer the rainfall to the northern portions and
keep the southern portion of the panhandle dry. The skies are
expected to be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy across the southern
panhandle area into midweek.

The warmer temperatures that remind of what summer could have been
reach the southern panhandle to Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday
upper 60s to near 70 for the start of the week.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday/ High
pressure ridge that developed over the AK Gulf and Panhandle
earlier in the week will remain in place though mid week before
shifting eastward with a transition to highly amplified and active
pattern towards next weekend. By that time may be dealing the
impacts of an extratropical low associated with northward lifting
Typhoon Haishen. Periods of rain over the NE Gulf coast and
northern Panhandle expected to diminish as the ridge moves east.
Still not expecting this rain to hit much further south than the
Icy Strait corridor, and as with previous models runs, still
uncertain on eastward extent. Better confidence that any heavy
rain will be limited to the Yakutat area, and that subsides as
atmospheric river conditions were mainly for the start of the
week. Very uncertain forecast for the end of the week due to the
next extratropical cyclone. Temperatures drop late in the week
with a return to a more seasonable range as the warm airmass moves
along eastward with the ridge.

Used a blend of GFS/NAM for Tuesday but overall made only minor
changes. Kept with WPC for rest of the time which was more
ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble driven. Forecast confidence on general
synoptic pattern is above average but lower with details such as
pop field.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-053.

&&

Bezenek/PRB

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