High Wind Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

339 
WWAK77 PAJK 020631
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
931 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

AKZ018-020745-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200302T0900Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
931 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The strongest winds have diminished. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph
can still be expected through the overnight hours.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...The frontal band responsible for bringing rain, snow
and strong winds across the Panhandle has largely pushed through
the area, but will leave behind widespread showers and gusty winds
as it departs. Despite strong southerly flow, temperatures rose
more slowly than anticipated, which helped snow linger in some
locations longer than had been initially progged, though it should
be noted that most areas have nevertheless transitioned to rain.
The NE Gulf low associated with the aforementioned front will
remain in place throughout next few days, maintaining the pressure
gradient required for strong westerly onshore flow over the gulf
and associated rain showers throughout much of the Panhandle. A
weak shortwave trof will swing around the southern flank of this
low and impact the Panhandle Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The
associated vorticity in association with diffluence aloft from an
upper level jet, will help to further enhance this shower
activity, though expect precipitation to remain predominantly rain
given the ongoing Southerly flow.

Winds: Gale force winds over outer coastal waters will steadily
subside through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday, though
winds of small craft advisory strength will continue on in their
stead. Throughout the overnight hours and tomorrow, winds will
continue to broadly trend downwards in most of the inner
channels. The exceptions to this will be Stephens Passage, which
could continue to see winds of 25 knots, and Lynn Canal, which
will see sustained winds as high as 35 to 40 knots which will only
slowly abate through the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.
Given this flow pattern, strong wind headlines will be needed for
Skagway, Haines, Sitka and Juneau during the afternoon and
overnight hours Sunday night.

As of the time of writing, warmer air is moving in with the
strong Southerly flow throughout the panhandle. Although
temperatures will swing towards a gradual trend downwards through
the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, rain should remain
the predominant precip type in most locations through Tuesday
afternoon, with periods of mixed precipitation possible during the
overnight hours in some places. Beyond this, cooler air surging
around the low in the Gulf will make itself increasingly felt
throughout SE Alaska, and its impacts will need to be closely
monitored.

Models were in generally good agreement and mostly in line with
previous forecast. Forecast confidence is average on the synoptic
scale, though small scale fluctuations in temperatures will make
pinpointing precise precipitation types for all locations across
the panhandle a challenge.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/Extended forecast
begins during a period of unsettled weather as a low to the west
will continue to send a series of troughs and fronts toward SEAK.
Continued onshore flow will keep up an ample amount of moisture
over the region for much of the week. Exact timing of any
particular feature is still uncertain at this time, however,
because of an ongoing, slight cooling trend also occurring through
the week, this could have a tremendous impact on precip type.
During daytime hours, most locations will be warm enough through
Wednesday to maintain a p-type of rain, while at night through
this time frame a change over to snow or at least a mix will be
more likely.

Thursday, an arctic front begins to descend from the north before
stalling out over the middle of the region Saturday. The previous
"slight" cooling trend will be replaced by a surge of much colder,
drier, continental air, plunging night time lows into the teens
for most of the north-central and northern panhandle by Friday
night. Daytime highs in the southern part of the region will be
for the most part unaffected, however north of the boundary,
highs for many will struggle to get out of the 20s. These chillier
temperatures for next weekend will also be accompanied by our
first real opportunity for some clear skies in what seems like
forever. By the very end of the forecast period, temperatures will
begin to relent slightly as the flow begins to shift back around
to the south. This will begin to bring clouds back in from the
west come Sunday ahead of our next potential rain/snow maker.

Winds during the extended forecast period will be trending to
mostly benign at the start of the forecast period, save for the
small craft advisory level winds in the coastal waters that are
typical this time of year, but even those begin to subside by
Tuesday night. The arctic front coming in on Thursday will be
accompanied by a very strong pressure gradient which will be
problematic through Cross Sound and Lynn Canal. These conditions
should begin to relax Sunday as the gradient starts to weaken.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-027.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ017-023-025-
     028.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023-025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018.
     Blizzard Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-031>036-041-042-053.

&&

GFS/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
115 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E YAKUTAT             59.55N 139.71W
03/01/2020  M9.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 9 INCHES FROM 7 PM TO 7 AM. SNOW HAD CHANGED TO
            RAIN SOMETIME BEFORE 6 AM. WET HEAVY SNOW.

&&

KAV