High Wind Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

437 
WWAK77 PAJK 290036
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

AKZ017-290145-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-201129T0100Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
336 PM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

The gusty winds have diminished below 60 mph so the warning will 
expire at 4 pm. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected to continue 
into the early evening. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
704 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sun Night/...The storm force front that
we've been talking about for the past couple of days will push
through the area today bringing strong winds for the southeastern
Alaska and the eastern Gulf regions. Up to storm force winds are
expected for the outside waters and up to gale force winds are
expected for the inside waters. This is due to a tight pressure
gradient associated with this storm system. Strong winds are in
effect for much of the Panhandle for today while small crafts up
to gales are in effect for many of the inner channels. Wind gusts
over land areas are not expected to reach the High Wind Warning
criteria of 60 knots, but could near it. For the eastern Gulf,
most of the outer coastal marine zones have storm warnings in
effect for today while the other remaining marine zones have
gales.

Though this system is fast moving, it will be a wet one with
heavy precipitation starting off as a mixture of rain and snow in
many areas transitioning to primarily rain for much of the
Panhandle. There are a few areas that are typical exceptions. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Hyder area for
possible snow accumulations up to 11 inches. A Winter Storm
Warning is still in effect for the Haines and Klondike Highways
for possible snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. Average
temperatures for the rest of the Panhandle are expected to be warm
enough to not allow for any significant snow accumulations.

A ridge begins to push through the region Sunday night into
Monday morning bringing a short lull in the weather for that
timeframe.

The potential for more heavy rain for the southern Panhandle and
strong winds for that area exists Sunday evening into Monday
morning due to a relatively poorly resolved wave approaching the
extreme southern Panhandle Sunday evening. The Hyder area has the
potential to turn back to snow Sunday afternoon into the night
with that system, but confidence is not high for that as
temperatures look like they will be a little too warm for snow
behind the front for that area for that time.

It looks like a solid setup is coming together for an atmospheric
river for several days after the ridge pushes through with
significant IVT values. The onslaught of rapidly approaching storm
systems will continue.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/In a continuation of
previous thinking, a strong atmospheric river to start a new
month is racing towards and through the northeast gulf coast and
northern portion of the panhandle. Models have fairly solid
agreement on the event occurring. Standardize Anomalies range
between 2.5 and 3.1 for Precipitatal Water, and IVT anomalies are
between 4 and 6. Based on the potential rain fall, have issued a
Hydrological Outlook (ESF) for the time as a start to share some
of the information. Rain totals in the current forecast for that
timeframe ranges up to 5 to 11 inches for the 2.5 days.

When the front makes its initial appearance, storm force winds
will be in evidence over coastal waters, and strong wind headlines
(gusts of 40 to 55 mph) will be likely for the coastal land
zones. To top all of this off the Haines and Klondike Highways may
be cold enough to start or stay snow for a while and heavy rates
may keep it snow for the highways as well. The snowfall and
amounts are the least confident part of the late Monday to
Wednesday forecast.

A wave or two on the N-S front will slow eastward progression
through Wednesday night the way it looks at this time. Longer
range models are also suggesting a second low moving northward
over the gulf late Thursday impacting somewhere between Kodiak
Island and Yakutat. A third feature may be trying to develop for
Saturday.

Forecast confidence is in the above average for Monday-Tuesday,
and below average from Thursday onward because of the model
consistency.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ020-026.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this evening for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from noon today to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through late tonight for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM AKST
     Sunday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042-043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-053.

&&

JLC/Bezenek

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