High Wind Warning 18, NWS Juneau, AK

944 
WWAK77 PAJK 170734
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1034 PM AKST Mon Nov 16 2020

AKZ025-171600-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0018.201117T1500Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
1034 PM AKST Mon Nov 16 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

668 
WWAK77 PAJK 171257
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

AKZ025-180100-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0018.201117T1500Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...through 9 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

382 
WWAK77 PAJK 171300 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

AKZ025-180100-
/O.COR.PAJK.HW.W.0018.201117T1500Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
400 AM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...through 9 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

987 
WWAK77 PAJK 172347
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

AKZ025-180800-
/O.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-201118T1200Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
247 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph
  expected. Earlier this afternoon a wind gust to 69 mph was
  recorded at the Juneau library downtown. 

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday with the strongest wind gusts
  expected Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

732 
WWAK77 PAJK 172358 AAA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

AKZ025-180800-
/O.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected. Earlier this afternoon a wind gust to 69 mph was 
  recorded at the Juneau library downtown.

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

865 
WWAK77 PAJK 180731
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1031 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

AKZ025-181800-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
1031 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds to 40 mph with gusts of around 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Downtown Juneau, Douglas, West Juneau, and Thane.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees. Widespread power 
  outages are possible. Loose objects will be blown around in 
  the wind. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles and over the Juneau-Douglas bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ensure vessels in Aurora Harbor and the 
  Douglas Boat Harbor are adequately moored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

192 
WWAK77 PAJK 181338
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

AKZ025-181445-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-201118T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
438 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Gusts in the downtown Juneau and Douglas area have diminished
overnight below 60 mph. Gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph will continue
to be observed Wed.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
606 AM AKST Mon Nov 16 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tue night/ Satellite imagery and radar this
morning is showing an area of shower activity stretching from
Central Prince of Wales Island out into the gulf just W of Baranof
Island associated with some surface convergence and a weak area
of vorticity aloft. No precip has been observed at any
observations sites yet this morning, but some snow showers showing
up along western Prince of Wales and on Baranof Island this
morning is not out of the question. Any snow accumulations will be
light. This area of showers is expected to get pushed offshore
later this afternoon and evening as the strengthening northerly
outflow reaches the area.

After the showers along the outer coast, northerly outflow
remains the main forecast concern in the short range. Winds have
not been that intense overnight with 20 to 25 kt in Lynn Canal
being the highest winds observed. Reason being that the cold air
advection has been rather weak so far with most winds still being
mostly driven by the pressure gradient (which have themselves
weakened overnight). Winds for today have been lowered across the
north (especially around Skagway and Haines) as a result. That
will change as we get into Mon night and Tue as more cold air
starts coming southward and pressure gradients increase. Winds
will be increasing in reaction to that. The period of peak winds
has been pushed back however to Tue afternoon and night as the
delayed movement of an approaching low from the south has pushed
peak pressure gradients to later on Tue then previously depicted.
The timing of the high wind watch has been pushed back as well to
Tue morning through Wed morning as a result. Expect gale force
winds in many areas of the northern inner channels at this time
and even some storm force winds in Lynn Canal. Winds will begin to
diminish as we head into Wed.

Farther south, the focus on Tue night will be with a system that
will be approaching from the south that will be spreading precip
and some wind. Some uncertainty with this system as the northerly
outflow will have reached that far south by this point so how much
dry air the precip will have to fall through as well as how the
system reacts to the outflow will determine what various areas
receive. Current depiction has the main low tracking N through
Hecate Strait Tue before turning W through Dixon Entrance before
stalling just W of Prince of Wales Island by late Tue night. This
is a delayed time table compared to previous forecasts, and onset
of precip for the southern panhandle has been delayed to Tue night
as well. As for amounts and ptype, snow appears to be the most
likely ptype for most areas with the cold air outflow (850 mb
temps drop to -8 C by Tue evening) having managed to get this far
south. Amounts will be hard to figure out as the precip will be
fighting the dry atmosphere that the outflow will bring in, but
generally looking at around 1 to 5 inches of snow through Wed
morning from Sumner Strait southward.

Overall changes to the forecast mainly focused on delaying the
peak outflow winds and delaying the system coming up from the
south on Tue. Otherwise most other changes were for local effects
for winds and temperature.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/
Northerly outflow winds decrease on Wednesday as pattern changes
occurs with a low tracking into the SE AK Gulf from Dixon
Entrance. This low weakens with little in the way of northward
progression then tracks back to the southeast. Towards the end of
the week a trough moves into the NE Gulf from the west swinging a
front across the AK Gulf. No impactful weather associated with
this front. For the weekend indications of a deeper low moving
into the NE Gulf and stronger front tracking across the AK Gulf
and impacting the Panhandle.

Increased outflow winds for Wednesday, especially for the
northern regions due to gradient between the SE Gulf low and high
pressure remaining over Western Canada. Also kept temps lower for
same locations due to the cold outflow remaining. Still fair
operational model spread for this low, especially with respect to
how far north precipitation bands will go. There is better
agreement that the southern locations will see some snow and then
begin to mix with rain as flow shifts more southerly and warmer
air advects in.

For the long range synoptic pattern ensembles have been mainly
consistent with overall idea but fair amount of spread on details.
Both NAEFS and ENS standardized anomalies indicate weekend
precipitation and warmer mid and low level temps and increase in
gulf winds but nothing to indicate any highly impactful events.
EFI tells a similar story. So weekend outlook is a typical late
fall system with gale force winds likely and with southerly flow a
change from snow to a mix or all rain. Precipitation type will
depend highly on how much of the cold air that is established
early in the week remains.

Besides the increase in winds for Wednesday and a decrease in PoP
with the late week front not much change done. Forecast confidence
through the end of the week is average even with the uncertainty
of the SE Gulf low. Late week confidence is lower, even with more
certainty of the weekend low moving in but with less certainty on
strength and position.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ018-025.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-033-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-042-043-051.

&&

EAL/PRB

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