Gale Warning 88, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...Showers tapering off from the west and northwest
Friday night and early Saturday. A few potential breaks in the
cloud cover for the southern and central panhandle combined with
lighter winds may allow the formation of patchy fog. The northern
portions should not to worry about that as a northerly pressure
gradient develops increasing winds to 20 to 30 mph along Lynn
Canal. Some cooler air will also spread out of the interior over
the northern Lynn canal zones potentially as far south as Juneau.
The southern extend will will not be that strong, and that brings
us to the forecast issue of the shift.

Will it be enough for several inches of snow anticipated by the
earlier issuance of the Winter Storm Watch. The more I was looking
at situation, the stronger the belief that it may only be an
advisory event of 4 to 6 inches. Will maintain the watch for now
since its expected late Saturday night and later models solutions
should fine tune to either more or less. Think the Yakutat Haines
and Skagway Watches look a little more solid.

The southerly push Sunday, through Lynn Canal also looks
impressive as well, and should do well the spread the lower level
warmer temperatures into Haines valley, and around Skagway. The
higher elevations of White Pass should maintain as snow. Winds
speeds with this push could reach gusts of 60 mph or higher at the
lower elevations. So may need to separate out the lower
elevations to specify just wind issues for Skagway zone, while
higher up the mountain, a blizzard warning may be more
appropriate. So essentially just going to let the current
situation go as is, though portions are looking like they may be
better than earlier thought.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/...This extended range
forecast begins with the tail end of a snow event that may finally
see seasonal snow totals rise to normal values for the first time
in several years. The notable exception to this would be the far
northern inner channels. Haines, Skagway, and both highways have
seen more than their fair share of snow this season, and in
particular, from the second half of January to the present. As the
front responsible for this snow event pushes inland, the warm
sector will follow and result in Sunday highs in the low to mid
40s. The precipitation will continue, but low elevation snowfall
should end by mid morning Sunday. The remainder of this event
will consist of rain, moderate to heavy at times, on top of the
fresh snow north of Angoon and in Petersburg. For details on
exactly how much your location may receive, check out the hourly
weather forecast graph accessible from the point-and-click
section of the NWS Juneau webpage.

The remainder of the extended range forecast will remain wet
and/or snowy. After Sunday, daytime highs will gradually fall and
overnight lows will support snow beginning Monday night. Long
range models are indicating the next period of dry weather by
Thursday night and possibly lasting into the next weekend.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
     for AKZ019-025.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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