Gale Warning 71, NWS Juneau, AK

717 
FZAK52 PAJK 121227
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130630-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system is located in the Gulf. Gale force winds 
will expand into the inner channels Wed before diminishing in 
strength Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ041-130630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-130630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-130630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 15 ft. Snow early in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-130630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building 15 ft. Rain and snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-130630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
327 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 15 ft. Rain and snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
17 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

599 
FZAK52 PAJK 130018
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131830-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front in the Gulf will push inland, and winds will 
diminish during the evening and overnight hours. A low will move 
inland near the Southern panhandle on Thursday, bringing 
additional chances for showers. 

$$

PKZ041-131830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell increasing to W in
the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 13 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. 
SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Tue Feb 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate the
next big system for the panhandle to be steadily approaching the
area,. This system is is progged to bring another round of winter
weather to SE Alaska. The primary uncertainty associated with
this system will be the timing of the rain/snow transition.
Although there is not currently a substantial cold pool in place
across the panhandle, temperatures should remain cool enough to
enable precip to start as snow late tonight across the region and
transition to rain from S to N through the day Wed, but there
remains some disagreement amongst guidance on when this will
occur. Guidance is notoriously too quick in timing the wind shift
to a more southern orientation over the N panhandle, and between a
slower wind shift and snow-melt cooling, chose to keep precip as
snow for N inner channels through much of the day on Wednesday.
The longer snow duration will result in higher accumulations
before precip transitions to liquid, and given the impressive QPF
associated with this system, it is looking increasingly likely
that winter weather products may be needed for much of the
northern panhandle, with substantial snow accumulations likely in
Haines, Gustavus, Juneau, and other locations in the vicinity.
However, given disagreement in how fast the temperatures will
warm up however, confidence in final snow totals is low. Southerly
gales will develop over the gulf tonight and expand into the inner
channels Wed. Depending on how the system develops, it is not
inconceivable that strong wind headlines may also be needed on
Wednesday, but held off for the time being.

The front will dissipate as it pushes inland and models somewhat
diverge with what happens to the parent low over the gulf.
Previous runs suggested the low would fill as it drifts SE through
Thu, but more recent synoptic guidance shows the low lingering on
and tracking across the S gulf before moving inland. The GFS and
the Euro have coalesced around a more southerly oriented track
that would take the low across Haida Gwaii and the Dixon entrance
on Thursday, while the NAM takes the low through the southern
panhandle. Given that the NAM appears to be trending southwards,
chose to blend towards the GFS and the EURO, and have reflected
that in the winds across the panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday / EC and
NAEFS ensembles are now in a bit better agreement in regards to
the general pattern for the late week and weekend time frame in
that yet another deep and cold trough will develop over the
interior of Alaska with a strong undercutting Pacific jet. This is
quite reminiscent of the pattern that dominated the last half of
January and led to several rounds of stormy conditions with
periods of heavy rain and snow. Split flow regime will make
individual storms quite hard to pin down and this is evidenced in
the extreme spread in the mid-range ensemble data for individual
systems. Exact position of the main baroclinic zone between the
developing very cold airmass over the interior and mild Pacific
air will also play havoc with the rain/snow line as periodic shots
of modified arctic air across the Gulf will precede each storm
approaching from the southern stream. Snow levels will remain low
but given the main trough axis will be fairly far to the west of
SE AK, think rain will predominate over the central and southern
Panhandle with precipitation type alternating between rain and
snow across the north. Overall confidence is high that
precipitation will be widespread through the remainder of the
extended forecast but much lower in all other details.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ020-021.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034>036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-053.

&&

GFS/DEL

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