Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

046 
FZAK52 PAJK 011155
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-020600-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Gale force westerly winds enter the southern coastal  waters
early Wednesday then diminish Wednesday night. A low will move
into the southeast Gulf Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ041-020600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 23 ft. 
Rain early in the morning, then rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. W swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-020600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH  THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 22 ft. 
Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. W swell. Snow showers. Rain
showers late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain and snow
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-020600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 22 ft. Snow
showers. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in
the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-020600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-020600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
255 AM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

124 
FZAK52 PAJK 020021
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-021830-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Gale force westerly winds will diminish and become southwesterly
Wednesday night as the parent low moves inland over the far
northern Gulf. A low will move into the southeastern Gulf
Thursday night.  

$$

PKZ041-021830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain 
showers early in the evening. 
.THU...S wind increasing to 20 kt, then becoming E in the
afternoon. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the
evening. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-021830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 20 ft. Rain 
and snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 
ft. W swell. Rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the
evening. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-021830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 21 ft. 
Snow showers. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft. SW swell. Snow showers and rain showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell in the
evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-021830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 21 ft. 
SW swell. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft late. SW swell. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-021830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
321 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 6 ft
late. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.SHORT TERM...Change is in the air, and it is looking likely that
SE Alaska will finally experience a taste of winter in the days
ahead. By Wednesday afternoon a colder air mass is expected to
replace the relatively warm air that has been in place over much
of Southeast AK recently. Satellite imagery indicates that
Northerly flow is driving cold arctic air across the Aleutians and
into the western Gulf. A strong upper wave has developed into a
mid level low pressure system near the AK Peninsula and is
generating rain through much of SE Alaska, while on Wednesday a
southerly stream wave will lift towards Haida Gwaii.

Southwesterly flow will turn more southeasterly and moderate
through the day which will likely result in decreasing rain
showers especially across parts of the central and southern inner
channels this afternoon. During the overnight hours, the
diminishing winds and lack of rain may result in some patchy fog
across parts of the central and southern panhandle, though don't
expect it to last for very long as the next front targets SE
Alaska in the morning. The front will push across the E gulf and
works its way into the panhandle through the morning hours on
Wednesday. There is some moisture associated with this wave, and
so think that moderate to heavy rainfall rates will be possible as
the wave pushes through on Wednesday. Behind this wave front a
westerly push of colder air will begin moving across the entire
panhandle Wednesday afternoon. As the cold air moves across the
panhandle, rain showers will begin changing over to snow showers
Wednesday afternoon and persist overnight and through Thursday.
Surface temperatures will continue to drop allowing for better
chance of snow accumulation late. Snowfall amounts will likely
vary widely across the area due to the nature of showers. Bands of
snow showers will result in variable accumulations, with
accumulations ranging from 1 to 6 inches possible depending on
where the bands of snow line up.

On Thursday afternoon, models are in fairly good agreement that a
wave will ride up the south stream of the jet and that, should it
reach far enough north, impact parts of the southern panhandle
through the latter half of Thursday and much of Friday. Although
it is too soon to tell for certain, it does currently look like
this has the potential to give some additional snow to parts of
the panhandle, including Ketchikan. Accumulations will largely
depend on the track that this low ends up taking. The GFS
brings the center of the low right through Ketchikan, while the
Euro takes the center through Haida Gwaii, and the Canadian keeps
the system south of the area entirely. Will need to get better
consensus before saying anything with confidence, but for the time
being, am leaning more towards the GFS as it seems to have a solid
grasp of the current synoptic setup. Overall forecast confidence
is average.

.LONG TERM...Thursday onshore flow will be weakening as ridging
begins to nose into the Panhandle ahead of a developing system
well to the south. Thus with far less forcing, we lowered QPF
amounts across Southeast Thursday, and thus snow totals. And given
the showery nature of the precipitation, we feel limiting amounts
to a trace to a couple of inches of snow works well for this
period. We also lowered snow ratios to around 80 percent of
modeled values to account for less forcing.

Now with such a cold air mass settled across the gulf, the zone
of deepest baroclinicity along with the strongest jet will be
squarely in latitudes south of us. So to monitor storm develop
that is the direction we turn. We have seen hints of a storm
developing in certain model runs over the last couple of days,
but agreements and ensembles have warmed to the idea sufficiently
to make bigger changes from Thursday night into the early weekend.
What do we see? This storm will spark an outflow offshore wind
"event" and a heightened possibility of significant snow for
portions of the south.

For starters, we nudged upward northerly winds through the Inner
Channels up to small craft through the central areas and touching
gale in Lynn Canal. We also touched upwards winds through the
communities most inclined to be responsive to such outflow, namely
Downtown Juneau/Douglas, Skagway, and Haines. Should outflow be
strong enough, we may need to bump up the winds in other areas
such as Tenakee Springs, Klawock, Gustavus, and Kake, among
others.

Then the subject turns to snow. Temperatures will be cold enough
to support snow at times, even in the First City of Ketchikan.
What seems most clear is that Hyder looks to see yet another
significant snow event as until now winter has only resided in
Hyder, Haines, and Skagway. We are looking at possibly a foot of
snow from Thursday night into Friday as the storm to the south
approaches Dixon Entrance. Perhaps even more interesting to watch
will be guidance trends for temperatures in Ketchikan and Prince
of Wales Island. While we warm them to mid to high 30s on Friday,
should outflow be strong enough, it could allow for a potentially
significant overrunning snow event for the southern Inner
Channels. Currently we favor 1 to 4 inches for Prince of Wales
with maybe 3 to 5 for the Ketchikan area, even with a rain
changeover Friday. Even farther north, the cold air will
undoubtedly keep the precipitation mainly snow, so Petersburg and
Wrangell should monitor changing trends in the forecast. Our
experiences respect the efficiencies of overrunning precipitation
events, and the 2 to 4 inches of snow Friday may need to be
raised. Fresh model runs from both the 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS
are taking the storm to the south on a track east of the old runs.
This would favor less QPF particularly for the coastal, the
northern, and central Panhandle. But trends have not been as
consistent as we would prefer.

Snow showers look to stick around into the early weekend, after
which consistency falls apart. However, outlooks still point to
cooler temperatures than normal with little direction on
precipitation. With the baroclinic zone not too far away to our
south and southwest, we suspect all areas of Southeast Alaska are
ripe for at least one or two overrunning events good for at least
a modest snow event. But in this winter of 2019-2020, modest
means significant.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-021-022-035-043-051>053.

&&

GFS/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
149 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE WARD COVE         55.42N 131.71W
12/30/2019                                      AK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            LOW LYING PORTIONS OF THE TRAIL SYSTEM ALONG WARD LAKE
            RECREATION AREA WAS REPORTED FLOODED.

0800 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE WARD COVE         55.42N 131.71W
12/30/2019                                      AK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            LOW LYING CAMPGROUNDS AND SIGNAL CREEK ARE FLOODED IN THE
            WARD LAKE RECREATION AREA.

0800 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE WARD COVE         55.42N 131.71W
12/30/2019                                      AK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            THE ROADSIDE DAY USE AREA IN THE WARD LAKE RECREATION
            AREA IS FLOODED.

&&

ABJ