Gale Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

723 
FZAK67 PAJK 011323
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
423 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-020730-
423 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Widely scattered showery activity continues Saturday as a low
continues to spin out west in the Gulf. The low passes through
the region Saturday night, ushering in colder air. 

$$

PKZ310-020730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
423 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow 
showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain showers in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

454 
FZAK67 PAJK 020012
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Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-021815-
312 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening low moves over the central panhandle through Saturday
evening followed by an area of high pressure on Sunday. A gale 
force front moves into the AK Gulf from the west Monday. 

$$

PKZ310-021815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
312 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Strongest winds southern half. Seas 13 
ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain in the evening,
then rain and snow late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

499 
FZAK67 PAJK 021245
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-030645-
345 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weak low over the central panhandle exits the Panhandle down
the BC Coast this afternoon. High pressure over the Canadian
Yukon passes into northern BC tonight. A gale force front
arrives across the eastern gulf Monday.  

$$

PKZ310-030645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
345 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the
afternoon. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

979 
FZAK67 PAJK 030013
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-031815-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Dry weather dominates Sunday as a weak low exits the panhandle
into British Columbia. A gale force front arrives across the 
eastern gulf Monday. 

$$

PKZ310-031815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 
11 ft. Rain. Snow late. 
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
SW swell in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

565 
FZAK67 PAJK 031258
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-040700-
358 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front will stall across the eastern gulf through
Monday evening. Another front will approach the gulf from the
south Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ310-040700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
358 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft.
SW swell in the evening. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

526 
FZAK67 PAJK 040012
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-041815-
312 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front will move through the panhandle Monday evening and night.
Another system will advance northeast into the eastern gulf and 
into the panhandle late Tuesday and Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ310-041815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
312 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 16 ft.
SW swell in the evening. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...After the passage of a powerful low over the panhandle
on Thursday, the weather for the weekend ahead looks to be more
sedate for much of SE Alaska. The northern and central panhandle
have fallen under the influence of a much weaker low currently in
the northwest Gulf. Around this low, multiple bands of
precipitation will be kicked up and pushed into the region in
onshore flow. For the northern and central panhandle the dominant
precip type will continue to be snow. While as these showers pass
over, impacted areas can easily anticipate a quick one to two
inches of fresh snow, with more possible in various locations if
training of a band occurs. A cooling trend will also be in store
for the forecast period as colder air wraps around the low and
moves into the region. As the low meanders its way toward the
panhandle Saturday night into Sunday, it will begin to weaken and
begin to get overtaken by high pressure to the north in the Yukon.
The interaction between these two features will create a decent
pressure gradient between them over Lynn Canal. As of now, only
have small craft advisory criteria advertised in the forecast, but
gales over these parts late Saturday/early Sunday through may not
be out of the question.

Towards the end of the forecast period, the next system will begin
to trek towards the panhandle. A shortwave trof with a respectable
amount of embedded vorticity will move over the Gulf on Monday. A
developing surface low associated with this trof will move over
the N Gulf on Monday, pushing a gale force front into the
panhandle. Too soon to tell for certain given model disagreement,
but it's currently looking possible that precipitation will start
out as snow throughout the panhandle before later changing to rain
as the warm air advection begins to bring above freezing
temperatures back to much of the panhandle. Winds will reach gale
force over the coastal waters as the system moves over the Gulf.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/...As of 10 pm Thursday.
As the upper trof shifts east into Canada, and an upper ridge
moves across the gulf and panhandle, expect that Sunday will give
us a brief break in between weather systems. At the surface, high
pressure will build across the Yukon Sunday morning increasing a
northerly pressure gradient across the northern inner channels,
likely increasing wind speeds through Lynn Canal. Colder air will
also sink further south with 850 mb temperatures dropping to
around -14 C. Although expecting some sunny skies during the day,
Sunday will also be the coldest day of this period. This Sunday,
it being February 2nd, is also a special day, as it will be
Groundhog Day. With the sun out, there is a good possibility one
might see his shadow. What will that mean for Southeast AK?

Back to what we expect the weather to be like next week: our next
weather system will actually be developing in the North Pacific
over the weekend. While the parent low hangs out in the western
Aleutians, a strong front will move across the gulf Sunday and
into the E gulf late Sunday into early Monday. Currently
anticipating the gale force front the approach the outer coast
Monday morning. Precipitation ahead of the front will spread
across the panhandle through the day Monday as multiple impulses,
or shortwaves, will enhance precipitation, especially across the
southern half of the panhandle. There is still possibility of
strong upper level jet supporting a plume of moisture towards the
southern panhandle, or possibly further south. The more
challenging part of Monday's forecast will be much snow will fall
before changing over to rain? This will depend on how quickly
temperatures will rebound, along with other factors. Model
thickness values keep snow over much of the panhandle through mid-
morning, and perhaps some northern areas into the afternoon. Over-
running snow with significant snowfall amounts is possible,
although temperatures will warm rapidly with the wind shift to
the southeast.

After Monday, model agreement dissolves, although the overall
pattern continues to look wet and warmer than normal for February.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue into mid-week with multiple
waves moving across the gulf and towards the panhandle. Will keep
likely precipitation going through Thursday. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

GFS/DDH

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