Gale Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

598 
FZAK67 PAJK 260031
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-261845-
331 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Low pressure will persist over the NW Gulf through Sunday. A
strong front will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Gulf
as several waves of low pressure move north along the front off
the eastern Gulf coast.  

$$

PKZ310-261845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
331 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
Snow showers early in the evening, then rain. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell shifting to the SW
in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

063 
FZAK67 PAJK 261333
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
433 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-270745-
433 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Low pressure over the NW Gulf will begin to weaken through the
day before another low moves in Monday. Waves of low pressure
continue to move northward along a strong front over the eastern
Gulf today before the front shifts eastward. Outlook. A very
strong low will move into the AK Gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ310-270745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
433 AM AKST Sun Jan 26 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...Active weather pattern continues across Southeast
AK. A deep upper trough over the central gulf will begin to drift
west toward the western gulf Saturday. Southern stream shortwave
will move north over the eastern gulf and across the panhandle
early Saturday through Saturday night. At the surface a cold front
has moved across much of the panhandle and will stall over the far
southeastern area tonight. Current satellite imagery indicates
snow showers rotating around a surface low in the northern gulf
and moving ENE towards the outer coast. The snow showers will
mainly move over northern parts of the panhandle, north from
Sitka to Juneau, then the coverage will drift northwestward
overnight. The front across the southern panhandle will begin to
drift north as a warm front Saturday. A developing low will move N
into the southeast gulf by Saturday morning spreading another
round of precipitation northward across the panhandle Saturday.
The first wave will reach the northern areas by Saturday
afternoon. A secondary wave will follow enhancing precipitation
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

One of the complexities of this forecast has been the up-and-down
nature of the temperatures over the next few days, which will in
turn derive where and when rain changes to snow and vice-versa.
The current idea is that the central inner channels will begin as
snow Saturday morning before changing over to rain after noon.
The northern inner channels will remain snow Saturday into Sunday
morning. Therefore the more impactful snowfall this weekend will
likely be across parts of the northern channels. Friday night an
winter weather advisory for 3 to 5 inches of snow is expected for
Haines. Then Saturday night there is potential for 7 to 10 inches
of additional snowfall in the Haines and Skagway areas, therefore
a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday evening through
early Sunday morning. There is also potential for a significant
amount of snowfall in the Juneau area Saturday night so future
shifts will need to decide if any products will need to be
necessary. While models have come into better agreement, the GFS
provided the basis for a few forecast adjustments. Forecast
confidence is moderate to above-average in the short term.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/As of 10 PM Thursday/The
picture for the long term continues to look muddy due to large
variations within the various models, but what is clear is that we
will be returning to a stormy pattern in the coming days. Deep
troughing over mainland Alaska and into the Gulf will pool some
rather cold air, which will mainly impact northern panhandle
locations. around this troughing an active jet pattern will send a
series of lows around the trough that will continue to keep flow
southerly should bring warmer temperatures through much of the
panhandle. This southerly flow will also provide ample moisture
for these systems to play with. Given the time of year, and
potential interactions with the arctic air camped out to the
north, p-type issues will likely be the biggest forecast challenge
for next week. North central and northern panhandle locations will
be the ones to watch for potential heavy snowfall as some of these
systems look like they will be pretty good precip makers. For the
southern areas, temperatures look to remain warm enough that
precip type should mainly remain as rain, however still can't rule
out a few snowflakes mixing in if precip is occurring during the
colder parts of the day.

As with any complex set-up, the models really begin to diverge
wildly on specific timings and intensity of any particular storm,
therefore the forecast remains largely unchanged with some
blending to WPC guidance for continuity. The overall message is,
it looks like it will be wet, but it is yet to be determined what
form the precip will take with any real confidence, it just needs
to be noted that the potential is there for at least one or two
storms to bring heavy precipitation and strong winds in the coming
week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday
     night for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

DDH/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau