Gale Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...Showers ahead of a trough continue to fall across
the northern and central panhandle this afternoon, and should
slowly begin to make their way south this evening and into
tomorrow. While snowfall rates have fallen off over the course of
the day, additional accumulations of less than an inch or two
through the main affected areas will still be possible Wednesday
night. Low pressure developing in the gulf will continue to
promote snow showers Wednesday into Wednesday night, however,
drier air moving in from the north should keep the focus of these
showers along the coast and further south. This will all be
brought upon by yet another deep trough that will begin pushing
through the region Thursday. This trough will bring a reinforcing
blast of arctic air and an uptick in the winds for the northern
inner channels. This will begin trend of several consecutive days
for areas of Juneau and further north where high temperatures are
currently not forecast to escape the teens. The combination of
these winds and temps will create the potential for dangerous wind
chills, particularly at the higher elevations such as White Pass.
This will also create conditions for freezing spray, mainly in
the northern inner channels.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/ As of 10pm Monday.
Weakening low pressure, tracking SE, will be over the southern
inner channels Thursday morning. Expect snow showers there to
become more isolated through mid morning. The rest of the
panhandle will have partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and
northerly outflow winds. As a result some freezing spray is
likely over the northern inside waters and cold wind chills to 35
below at White Pass.

A gale force low will track across the southern Gulf of Alaska on
Thursday. Nudged wind speeds up as models are coming into better
agreement on that idea, but there remains some differences on how
far north-south the low center and frontal band tracks. Latest
models are leaning toward a more southern track, which keeps
Juneau and the northern panhandle dry. The far southern panhandle
could see another round of advisory level snowfall from this low,
especially eastern POW Island. But may also see rain mixed in
under SE winds, which would limit accumulations near sea level.

The low passing through Dixon Entrance will tighten the northerly
pressure gradient across the northern inside waters. Gale force
winds are likely for Lynn Canal and Taku Mtn wave winds are
possible as well Thursday into Friday.

An arctic front quickly moves in behind the low Friday night with
continued dry northerly winds through the inner channels. Partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies and CAA will keep us below normal for
temperatures with many places seeing the teens to single digits
through the weekend.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ020-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043.

&&

JDR/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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