Gale Warning 101, NWS Juneau, AK

114 
FZAK52 PAJK 051301
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-060715-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong outflow and northerly winds will persist into Friday, then
diminish as the pressure gradient weakens.
  

$$

PKZ041-060715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ042-060715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming N 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft. Snow showers and rain showers early in the morning, then snow 
showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-060715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 9 ft late. 
.FRI...NE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-060715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-060715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
401 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Snow showers early in the morning. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

644 
FZAK52 PAJK 060032
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-061845-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Very strong outflow and northerly winds continue through early 
Friday. Outflow slows down through Friday as the pressure gradient
weakens. 

$$

PKZ041-061845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S late. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
13 ft late. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-061845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing late. Seas 16 ft subsiding to
11 ft late.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-061845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 11 ft late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-061845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-061845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

638 
FZAK52 PAJK 060344
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-062145-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Outflow and northerly winds continue through late tonight. 
Outflow relaxes through Friday as the pressure gradient weakens. 

$$

PKZ041-062145-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-062145-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 16 ft 
subsiding to 12 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-062145-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming 25 kt. Seas 15 ft 
subsiding to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-062145-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-062145-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
644 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Fri night/ Rather significant change in the
first 12 hours of the forecast as a convergence band that was
expected to develop over the northern inner channels out to Cape
Spencer area actually formed much farther west out in the central
gulf and over Yakutat this afternoon. This was a result of
multiple factors, not least of which was the low in the northern
gulf wrapping the band around it and to the west, and the stronger
low to the south spreading easterly offshore flow across the
panhandle stalling the eastward march of the band. What we are
left with is scattered to numerous showers across the inner
channels with accumulations of only around an inch or two at most
observed through the day while temperatures have been hanging
around the mid 30s. With the farther west position of the band it
was decided to cancelled the winter storm warnings that were out
for the Haines and Gustavus areas.

For the rest of the short range, A significant arctic outflow
event is still in the works for late tonight into Thu night. Winds
are expected to switch from southerly to northerly this evening in
the northern panhandle and will be rapidly increasing in strength
overnight. Northerly storm force winds are expected to be blowing
down Lynn Canal and out of the passes east of Yakutat, while gale
force winds will be blowing down many of the channels in the
northern half of the panhandle Thu. In addition with the colder
temperatures, freezing spray is also expected in many of the
northern inner channels. On land, the Klondike Highway will see
significant winds, and dropping temperatures on Thu with the
potential for low wind chills (down to -30F) and blowing snow
(visibility down to a quarter mile) in the vicinity of White Pass.
A blizzard warning is now in effect until 6 pm Thu for that area.
For other areas, wind gusts up to 40 mph or more are likely in the
usual outflow areas and a possible Taku wind event will be ongoing
in the downtown Juneau and Douglas areas Thu. For the Taku wind
event, the critical level appears to be the limiting factor as
the wind shear aloft is not well defined, so gusts should be
limited to between 40 and 50 mph. Higher gusts could still be
possible if this critical level becomes more defined or becomes
self induced.

Outflow expected to weaken by Fri as the low over the SE gulf
weakens and the Yukon high also weakens. Still going to have some
small craft winds blowing down some channels like Lynn Canal and
Taku Inlet, but the significant winds and freezing spray should
have diminished by that point. Temperatures will also remain cold
across the north with highs not reaching out of the 20s on Fri.
Coldest temperatures are expected Friday morning where some areas
of the northern panhandle could dip into the teens and single
digits. Southern panhandle will still have some southeast to east
flow from the low in the gulf so temperatures expected to remain
warmer there. Little in the way of precip as the earlier outflow
will have dried out the panhandle by this point.

The largest change in the forecast was in the first 12 to 24 hours
trying to figure out where the convergence zone was going to
settle. Favored more Gfs and Nam for updates today.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/As of 10 pm Tuesday/Generally
progressive upper flow pattern continues through the extended
period. Initially, upper ridging will be in place early Friday
over the western Gulf with deep troughing over SE AK. This will
promote continued outflow winds which should slowly diminish as
the upper ridge gets pushed eastward towards the Panhandle and
flattens by Saturday. This will allow the resumption of westerly
onshore flow at all levels of the atmosphere for the weekend.
Arctic air will be in place and some light overrunning snow may
occur through the weekend, though strong fronts will have a hard
time pushing through the upper ridge.

After the weekend, operational models diverge in their solutions.
Ensemble means agree with continuing the progressive pattern with
the propensity for some broad ridging over the NPAC near 170W
which leads to broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska. In terms
of sensible weather, this will likely lead to a wet pattern
resuming with low snow levels similar to what we experienced much
of the month of February.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ017-023-026>028.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind Thursday morning for AKZ018-023.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
     Blizzard Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-013-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>033-036-041>043-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-034-035-052.

&&

EAL/DEL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 PM AKST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.55N 139.73W
03/04/2020  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURE 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THAT FELL IN 90
            MINUTES IN YAKUTAT AS OF 530 PM WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOW
            CONTINUES TO FALL.

0537 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.55N 139.73W
03/04/2020  M10.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WEATHER SPOTTER FROM YAKUTAT REPORTED 10 INCHES OF NEW
            SNOW WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES.

&&

DEL