Alert archive / Alaska / Flash Flood Warnings in 2020

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

December 2, 2020

NWS Juneau, AK issued this flash flood warning at Dec 2, 2020, 4:04 PM AKST. It took effect at Dec 2, 2020, 4:12 PM AKST. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 2, 2020, 4:04 PM AKST (01:04 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 2, 2020, 4:12 PM AKST
Expired
Dec 2, 2020, 10:00 PM AKST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK
Area
Storm-based polygon
Damage threat
Considerable
Flood severity
None

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Yakutat, (PYAK), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Yakutat, at 00:00Z on 2020-12-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Yakutat, at 00:00Z on 2020-12-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 596 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
479 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
596 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
822 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

539 
WGAK57 PAJK 030112
FFWAJK
AKZ019-030700-
/O.NEW.PAJK.FF.W.0001.201203T0112Z-201203T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

The National Weather Service in Juneau has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Haines area.

* Until 1000 PM AKST.

* At 404 PM AKST, law enforcement reported landslides ongoing across
  the warned area. 4 to 8 inches of rain has fallen across the warned 
  area with an additional 1 to 2 inches expected over the next 12 hours.

  HAZARD...Additional landslides caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement.

  IMPACT...Additional landslides probable. Those living near steep terrain 
  should be aware of the increased danger. 

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause landslide near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.
Although less than what has previously been observed is expected to fall, already 
saturated grounds could give way easily. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away from steep terrain. Act quickly to protect your life.

Please report flooding  or landslides to your local law enforcement agency 
when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 5933 13542 5909 13530 5917 13560 5920 13570
      5943 13595

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1 to 2 inches of rain in the next 12 hours.
$$
1 follow-up statement
069 
WGAK77 PAJK 030659
FFSAJK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
957 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

AKZ019-030707-
/O.EXP.PAJK.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201203T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
957 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HAINES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM AKST...

The heavy rain is diminishing. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect 
until 9AM Thursday. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 5933 13542 5909 13530 5917 13560 5920 13570
      5943 13595

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 2, 3:32 PM AKST, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 2, 3:32 PM AKST, 32 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Wed Dec 2 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Thursday/

...IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BATTER SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

The atmospheric river responsible for record rainfall totals
continues to dump heavy rain across portions of Southeast Alaska.
Juneau, Gustavus, Sitka, Craig, Haines, and many other towns
received between 4 and 10 inches of rain in the past 24 hours
smashing daily rainfall records. Rivers and streams have risen and
are cresting this afternoon across the Icy Strait corridor. A
Flood Advisory remains in effect for Gustavus as the Salmon River
reached record levels this afternoon. Flooding along Auke Lake and
Jordan creek prompted a Flood Warning for the Juneau area earlier
today which has since been allowed to expire. Heavy rains plus
rising snow levels have caused multiple mudslides in Juneau and
Upper Lynn Canal prompting the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch for
Haines and Skagway. Extreme caution should be taken near steep
terrain, especially in Upper Lynn Canal. A serious situation has
been developing in Haines as debris flows have destroyed homes
and have prompted evacuations. An Additional 1 to 3 inches is
expected in Upper Lynn Canal through tomorrow morning on top of
already saturated grounds. Despite rainfall rates diminishing,
the additional rainfall tonight will cause  minor flooding and
other impacts through the north and central Panhandle.

A wave moving northward in the gulf tonight will re-orient the
atmospheric river in a more east to west fashion as it pushes a
front north and eastward through the Panhandle. Gales just ahead
of this front in the coastal waters will diminish later this
evening. Small crafts through the Inner Channels will begin to
diminish towards the morning hours on Thursday. A strong 70 kt
low level jet just above the surface and ahead of the front will
push into the Panhandle this evening keeping surface winds
elevated. Gusts to 60 mph are expected along the NE Gulf Coast
including Yakutat, where the High Wind Warning is in effect till 9
PM. Think the winds will calm down in that area before 9 PM
though. Strong winds with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected this
evening along the Outer Coast from Hydaburg to Sitka and further
inland towards Juneau and Upper Lynn Canal. Winds should diminish
everywhere by the morning hours on Thursday.

Winter weather continues to impact the highest elevations of the
highways this afternoon. Decided to extend the Winter Storm
Warning for White Pass though tomorrow morning for an additional
10 inches of snow. Despite rising snow levels across much of the
Panhandle, cold air advection tonight should keep White Pass
mainly snow.

Thursday: A small break in the precipitation as the current system
exits into Canada and the next system moves in from the south. A
weakening area of low pressure will head north out of the N
Pacific and move up the outer coast, opening up into a wave as it
does so. With southerly flow remaining in place aloft, expect rain
to be the predominant P-type for most areas with the higher
elevations on the Klondike Highway being the exception. Rain will
move in from south to north during the day Thursday. IVT values of
300 kg/m/s are associated with the plume of moisture out ahead of
this weak system. Currently expecting around an inch of rain in
the south with lesser amounts further north. Much of the southern
Panhandle was spared from the heavy rain today as the axis of
heaviest precipitation was aimed at the northern central
Panhandle; therefore flooding is not expected due to the
additional rainfall tomorrow across the south.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday night/ The remains of the
atmospheric river will be moving east into British Columbia early
Friday. During the day Friday a wave from the south spread some
more light light to moderate rains there.

Models are struggling to handle the system that should be moving
in from the eastern pacific with placement, strength, and timing.
Could see another strong Fall/Winter storm for the panhandle that
continues into Saturday. Another strong front should spread in
across the gulf for sunday attached to a deep low 950 mb headed to
the western gulf. The model agreement is better for the Sunday
and continuing into the start of the week with the strong low
moving to PWS as it weakens.

Not sure if I want to jinx the idea by commenting on it, but if
it occurs, it would impact the weather and residents of SE AK.
Various long range solutions and ensembles from Wednesday onward
are beginning to hint of a ridge developing over the Gulf and
into the mainland part of the state. This could lead to break that
We will wait and see.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023-026-027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Areal Flood Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ020.
     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     High Wind Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>036-052.

&&

CM/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 2, 10:41 AM AKST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SKAGWAY                 59.46N 135.31W
12/01/2020  E12.0 INCH       SKAGWAY            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            12 INCHES OF SLUSH REPORTED IN TOWN.

&&

JS
Local storm report, Dec 2, 10:44 AM AKST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1044 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WHITE PASS              59.63N 135.16W
12/01/2020  E36.0 INCH       SKAGWAY            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            36 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ESTIMATED BY ALASKA
            DOT.

&&

JS
Local storm report, Dec 2, 10:45 AM AKST, 5 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 SSW WHITE PASS        59.59N 135.19W
12/01/2020  E28.0 INCH       SKAGWAY            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            28 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW ESTIMATED BY ALASKA
            DOT.

&&

JS
Local storm report, Dec 2, 2:13 PM AKST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FLOOD            4 NW JUNEAU             58.34N 134.49W
12/01/2020                   JUNEAU             AK   PUBLIC

            ADDITION TO EARLIER REPORT MENTIONING
            HEATING OIL TANK BEING OVERTURNED BY A SMALL
            MUDSLIDE. MULTIPLE RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES
            DAMAGED BY DEBRIS FLOW.

&&

JS
Local storm report, Dec 2, 2:57 PM AKST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
257 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     FLOOD            9 S PETERSBURG          56.68N 132.92W
12/01/2020                   PETERSBURG CENSUS AAK   MESONET

            FALLS CREEK NEAR PETERSBURG FLSA2 REPORTED A
            CREST OF 24.28 FEET.

&&

JS
Local storm report, Dec 2, 3:26 PM AKST, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLOOD            1 SE HAINES             59.22N 135.42W
12/02/2020                   HAINES             AK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE LANDSLIDE IMPACTING BEACH ROAD NEAR
            HAINES. TIME AND LOCATION ARE APPROXIMATE.

&&

JS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 2, 3:18 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK13 hr
Dec 2, 3:38 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK7 days
Dec 3, 4:03 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK24 hr
Dec 3, 4:03 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK60 hr
Dec 3, 4:16 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK11 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Alaska, 2020Every flash flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.