Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continuing across the Central and Eastern Interior this
morning. Skies expected to remain mostly cloudy in these areas
going into the weekend, as snow slowly dissipates going into the
evening hours. Wind Chill Advisories continue for the West Coast,
as temperatures continue to plummet and winds remain in the 10-15
mph range. Expect very cold temperatures to continue along the
West Coast and the Western Interior ahead of a strong winter storm
that will push up into the Western Interior beginning early
tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main weather features in the upper levels consists of a strong
low just north of Kotzebue Sound, a weaker closed low east of
Bristol Bay, and a ridge centered over the panhandle of Alaska.
The closed low near Bristol Bay will lift to the northeast and
move over the Central and Eastern Interior by Saturday morning and
off into Canada by Saturday afternoon.

The strong closed low near Kotzebue Sound will remain strong going
into next week, as it dips to the southwest over the Gulf of
Anadyr by Saturday morning and then rotating back over the West
Coast by Monday night. A reinforcing wave will merge with this
strong upper level feature Saturday morning, with strong south
flow developing over the West Coast and east into the Alaska
Range. This south flow is expected to remain through Saturday,
with the flow turning more southwest by early Sunday morning.

Model agreement up to the latest runs are in good agreement
through Saturday morning, but discrepancies exist on how the
strong upper level low off the West Coast will move east beginning
early Sunday morning. This upper level low will usher in very cold
air early next week, with the GFS bringing the cold air center
through central Alaska, while the ECMWF and Canadian keep the
coldest air further north over the Brooks Range and Arctic Coast.

At the surface, a weak low near Bristol Bay will move east today,
with light snow in the Central Interior and stretching into the
Yukon Flats continuing into this evening. Weak north flow through
the Bering Strait will begin to strengthen Saturday morning as a
strong low pressure begins to move north into the Kuskokwim Bay
early Saturday morning. This low pressure will move into the
Norton Sound region by Saturday evening, and then continue north
into Kotzebue Sound by Sunday morning.

The strong low pressure is projected to significantly impact the
West Coast and Western Interior with heavy snow, strong winds, and
blowing snow. Latest model guidance has the low tracking further
west than previous runs, with noticeable differences in track
timing between models. However, general consensus at this time is
widespread impacts along the West Coast and the Western Interior
starting Saturday morning and lasting through Sunday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow continuing today and then dissipating this evening
over the Central Interior from Lake Minchumina and northeast into
the Eastern Interior over the Yukon Flats. Additional snow
accumulations of 1-2 inches are expected through this evening.
Otherwise, cloudy conditions expected to continue into the
weekend. Southerly flow will result in increasing winds in the
Alaska Range beginning on Saturday and lasting into Sunday night.
Winds will also be increasing through the Tanana Valley and in
higher terrain as strong low pressure moves along the West Coast
during this time frame. Temperatures will remain above average
through the weekend due to the strong southerly flow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mid-level clouds over the central Arctic Coast and Plains are
keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s below, with clear areas
ranging from mid-30s to mid-40s below this morning. Temperatures
are expected to remain in this range going into the weekend. As
low pressure moves up the West Coast on Saturday, temperatures
expected to warm slightly going into next week. Otherwise, quiet
weather continuing for the North Slope.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Wind chill issues continuing along the West Coast this morning.
Temperatures continue to decrease as a strong upper level low
pressure is bringing very cold Arctic air into the region. This
cooling trend will continue going into tonight. Conditions are
expected to change rapidly going into Saturday as strong low
pressure will move north over the West Coast and Western Interior.
Expect heavy snow, strong winds, and blowing snow to become a
widespread issue for these areas going into Sunday night. The
current forecast calls for storm total amounts of 1 to 3 inches
along the West Coast, with 4 to 7 inches and up to 15 inches in
favored upslope regions in the Western Interior. Temperatures will
increase dramatically into mid-teens to mid-20s in the Western
Interior and mid-teens below to near zero for the West Coast as
this storm moves through on Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.
&&

FEB 20