Winter Storm Warning 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

836 
WWAK41 PAFG 292309
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

AKZ201-301500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0039.000000T0000Z-201230T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
209 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with blizzard conditions occuring.
  Plan difficult travel with whiteout conditions. East winds 
  gusting to 40 mph are causing blowing and drifting snow with 
  visibility near zero at times.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast from Point Lay west.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph are causing
  blizzard conditions at Point Lay in blowing and drifting snow.
  Conditions are expected to improve slightly at Point Lay on
  Wednesday, but it is possible that visibility will remain below
  one half mile at Point Lay through Friday with winds continuing
  to gust to 40 mph. Winds will remain weaker and visibility 
  better at Wainwright and Atqasuk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow means severe winter
weather conditions are occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible. 

$$

714 
WWAK41 PAFG 301036
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

AKZ201-310200-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.W.0039.000000T0000Z-201230T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0026.201230T1036Z-201231T0900Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
136 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very
  difficult. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause whiteout
  conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is
  likely.

* WHERE...From Point Lay west.

* WHEN...Until midnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Cold wind chills as low as 50 below zero
  will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
  Winds will remain weaker and the visibility better at 
  Wainwright and Atqasuk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather is expected for today across most of northern
Alaska, with no active public hazards out. Some light snow is
expected for the northern Interior and for the Chukchi Sea coast
today; however this should taper off by the afternoon. Gusty
Tanana Valley Jet winds are expected into Wednesday. Elsewhere,
low ceilings and fog will persist along the Arctic Coast today.
The southern Interior will see some light snowfall late Wednesday
into early Thursday as a front moves to the north over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 29/00 UTC models generally initialize the main synoptic scale
features well when compared to observational data. While the
models depict the same general synoptic scale pattern in the
short term, differences in the placement of the upper level ridge
over the Interior start to show up in the models by this evening.
This will affect how much snow will be seen in Fairbanks as well
as elsewhere in the Southern Interior. The GFS is much more
enthusiastic about bringing snow into Fairbanks on Wednesday
evening than the ECMWF or the NAM. For the wind forecast, we made
minor adjustments to the inherited grids for the first 24 hours.
Thereafter, we went with more of a blend between the GFS and the
NAM. Given model uncertainty, we opted to reduce the PoPs across
the southern Interior for late Wednesday and Thursday. The
inherited forecast was mostly in line with the GFS; however, at
the moment, the GFS looks to be a outlier when compared to the
ECMWF, NAM and Canadian models.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 497 dam low is currently located over the
central Bering Sea while a ridge stretches across the forecast
area from Northway to Point Hope. The ridge over the area will
strengthen today and will remain generally stationary in the short
term. A 516 dam low will push into Bristol Bay from the southwest
this evening. The GFS brings this low into the southern Interior
by Wednesday evening, the other models all move the low east on
Wednesday, however they keep the low south of the Alaska Range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will bring chances for some light snow this morning to
the northern Interior. Chances for snowfall will diminish in the
afternoon as the upper level ridge strengthens over the Interior.
Some gusty Tanana Valley Jet winds are expected today into
Wednesday; however, we expect winds to remain below advisory
levels. There is a chance for some light snow in the southern
Interior late Wednesday into Thursday as a front moves through. As
mentioned above, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the
placement of the snowfall, with the GFS bringing snow into
Fairbanks and the other models keeping snow to the south. In any
event, accumulation is expected to be under an inch for any areas
that do see snow. Temperatures today will be a little bit cooler
than yesterday for most locations.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and low ceilings will persist along the Arctic Coast today.
The Brooks Range will see a chance of snow early today; however,
chances will diminish by the afternoon. Any snowfall in the Brooks
Range today will be light. Areas to the west of Wainwright will
see easterly winds easterly winds of around 25 mph today into
Wednesday. Winds in this area look to increase Wednesday night.
With the gusty winds, areas to the west of Wainwright may see the
visibility reduced at times in blowing snow over the next few
days. At this point, we don't think any headlines are necessary;
however we will continue to monitor.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Some light snow is expected this morning along the coast and in
the northern part of the Interior. A ridge will build in aloft
later today which will cause snowfall to taper off. Any additional
accumulation of snow today is expected to be light, with under an
inch expected. A front will bring chances for additional snow
late Wednesday to areas south of the Bering Strait and early
Thursday to areas north of the Bering Strait.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
A strong low will move into the western Bering Sea late Thursday.
A front associated with this low will move north along the West
Coast on Friday bringing strong easterly winds. A colder airmass
will push south over northern Alaska for the weekend brining us
back closer to climatological normals.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

DEC 20