Winter Storm Warning 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues for Northern Alaska with consecutive
storms aiming for the West Coast. The first storm continues to
diminish this morning. The second and much stronger storm in a
series of storms, is taking aim at the West Coast Wednesday night
into Friday with the potential for prolonged storm surge and
coastal flooding, heavy snow, and blowing snow as well as local
blizzard conditions. This storm will bring heavy snow and blowing
snow to the Western Interior Thursday and Friday. The heavy snow
will continue to push east into the Central and Eastern Interior
late Thursday and Friday for the Central Interior and Friday in
the Eastern Interior. The clouds and snow will help break the
Interior out of the arctic grip with well below temperatures
moderating to near normal by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models at 500mb and at the surface in fairly decent agreement in
the near-term. Favoring the ECMWF beyond 24 hours out because of
the speed it captures of the storm as it moves inland. Winds
could be a few mph stronger along the Arctic Coast currently,
because of the low pressure offshore that is a couple millibars
deeper than models indicate.

Aloft at 500mb, a deep and therefore, cold trough still exists
over eastern Alaska, Southcentral region, and the Yukon. A ridge
will begin to build and shift eastward over the West Coast ahead
of a strong upper level low that will follow it into the Bering
and eventually the West Coast. As a result, temperatures will jump
above freezing in many places after today.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The arctic airmass is beginning to modify as temperatures aloft
slowly warm. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today and
will rise dramatically on Thursday night and Friday as clouds and
snow move into the area and the upper level trough pushes to the
east. A strong storm in the Bering Sea will push deep moisture
into the Interior forcing the moisture to rise up over a deep
arctic airmass on Thursday and Friday. This will set up the
potential for a significant snow event over the Central and
Eastern Interior beginning late Thursday and continuing into
Saturday. Freezing rain and snow mix possible west of Fairbanks
Friday due to temperatures above freezing. Strong gap winds will
develop through the Alaska Range passes on Thursday afternoon into
Friday as a strong pressure gradient develops across the Alaska
Range. The Tanana Valley Jet will develop as well.

West Coast and Western Interior...
See Coastal hazard potential below for outlined storm surge
heights and timing for West Coast.

A very strong storm will move into the Western Bering Sea today,
then along the West Coast of Alaska tonight and then move east
into the Interior on Friday. This storm is expected to bring heavy
snow, blizzard conditions, and southerly gales to St Lawrence
Island today, and to the remainder of the West Coast of Alaska
tonight through Friday. Snow will mix with rain Thursday and
Friday in some coastal areas mainly south of the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow and winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue today as a
weak front rotating around a low pressure system north of the
coast pushes east over the North Slope tonight. Winds will remain
mostly out of the south and southwest the next couple of days
with light snow continuing as a series of weak fronts enter the
region from west to east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Coastal flooding is very likely from this long duration fetch of
S to SW flow from Cape Romanzof to the Bering Strait with a
chance of coastal flooding from the Bering Strait to Point Barrow
Thursday through Saturday.

Highlight of peak storm surge above the normal high tide line
from Cape Romanzof and north:

Thursday PM through Saturday AM, Scammon Bay, Cape Romanzof - 5
to 7 ft, Yukon Delta - 4 to 6 ft, Upstream the Yukon River from
Kwikpak to Mountain Village - 2 ft rise

Thursday PM through Saturday AM, Unalakleet, Shaktoolik, and Elim
- 6 to 8 ft

Thursday PM through Saturday AM, Golovin and Nome - 6 to 8 ft

Thursday PM through Saturday AM, Port Clarence - 4 to 5 ft

Thursday through Saturday AM, Shishmaref and Point Hope - 4 to 5
ft

Friday AM and Saturday AM, Deering - 4 to 5 ft

Friday AM and Saturday PM, Kotzebue - 4 to 5 ft

Thursday PM through Saturday PM, Icy Cape - 4 ft

Friday PM through Saturday PM, Point Barrow - 2 to 3 ft

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS NOV 20