Wind Chill Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

984 
WWAK41 PAFG 071713
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
813 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

AKZ203-080715-
/O.EXA.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
813 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 70 below occuring.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Saturday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-080715-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
813 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 65 below occuring.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Saturday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

611 
WWAK41 PAFG 080029
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

AKZ203-081500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
329 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 70 below occuring.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to drop below 10 mph
  Saturday morning, but very cold temperatures will persist
  through Saturday night.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-081500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
329 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 70 below occuring.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to drop below 10 mph
  Saturday morning, but very cold temperatures will persist
  through Saturday night.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ201-081500-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.200209T0000Z-200210T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
329 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 55 below expected. Snow and
  blowing snow expected. In addition, areas of poor visibility 
  are expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...3 PM Saturday to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...East winds will develop Saturday afternoon
  causing very cold wind chills. Snow and blowing snow will
  develop Saturday night and Sunday as winds increase. Cold wind
  chills to 55 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. 

$$

757 
WWAK41 PAFG 081318
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

AKZ204-081430-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The wind speed has dropped below advisory levels.

$$

AKZ203-082100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 65 
  below zero to 80 below zero.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ206-082100-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.200209T0900Z-200210T1500Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Winds gusting as high as
  30 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow reducing
  the visibility to one half mile or less at times. Total snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range, mainly near passes.

* WHEN...Midnight to 6 AM Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ201-082100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.200209T0000Z-200210T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
418 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Winds gusting as high as
  35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow reducing
  the visibility to one half mile or less at times. Total snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...3 PM today to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 55 
  below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

619 
WWAK41 PAFG 082039
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1139 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

AKZ203-082145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200208T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1139 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ201-091500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.200209T0000Z-200210T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
1139 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...3 PM today to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds increasing to gusting as high as 35
  mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Dangerously
  cold wind chill as low as 70 below zero will cause frostbite in
  as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ206-091500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.200209T0900Z-200210T1500Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
1139 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor
  visibility and difficult travel conditions. Total snow
  accumulations of up to three inches are expected.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Midnight to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Locally Wind Chill to 50
  below can cause frostbite in  as little as 10 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 PM AKST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights:
Temperatures in the 30s and 40s below over most of NW Alaska will
persist into Fri.

A storm over the Eastern Interior will move northeast tonight and
leave a weather front draped across the Central and Eastern
Interior into Fri. Snow moving across Interior Alaska with this
storm will taper off this afternoon with just light snow tonight
and Fri along the front. North winds 15 to 25 mph and very cold
wind chills over the Brooks Range Passes and West Coast North of
the Bering Strait associated with this storm will diminish this
evening as the low moves east. Along the West Coast from the
Bering Strait south expect north winds 15 to 25 mph and very cold
wind chills to persist today through Sat AM.

A strong storm move north over the West Coast and Western Interior
of Alaska Fri night through Sun is expected to bring significant
snow amounts to the Western and Central Interior this weekend,
along with blowing snow issues along the West Coast. This storm
is also expected to cause weak to moderate chinook winds across
the Alaska Range Sat and Sat night.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Western
Alaska with a ridge over the Alcan Border area. The trough will
retrograde over the Bering Sea on Sat, then progress over mainland
Alaska Sun and Mon. A series of weak short waves will move
northeast across Interior Alaska today through Fri and keep light
snow across the Southern and Eastern Interior trough Fri. When the
trough retrogrades Sat, southerly flow aloft will increase over
the Interior causing chinook conditions across the Alaska Range
late Fri and Sat. The progressing long wave next week will bring
colder temps to the eastern INterior.

Surface...
A low pressure trough stretching from Nuiqsut east will weaken
Fri AM. Stratus and flurries along this trough will persist
through Fri am. West winds 15 to 15 mph south of this trough will
weaken Fri am.

A weak weather front well north of the Arctic Coast of
Alaska will move to Nuiqsut east by 3am Sat and then dissipate.
This will bring more stratus, fog and flurries to the Arctic Coast
on Fri night and Sat.

A 1004 mb low near Fairbanks will persist through Fri then
dissipate. An Arctic front that lies from Old Crow to this low
then to McGrath will remain stationary through 3pm Fri, then to
Arctic Village to Anvik by 3am Sat, then slowly retreat north.
Light snow along this front will taper off through Fri night, with
another inch or so accumulation.

Strong high pressure over NE Russia has a ridge east of the North
Slope of Alaska and another ridge south over the Bering Sea. A
low near Cold Bay will move east and weaken tonight and Fri. These
two features are causing north winds 15 to 25 mph and cold winds
chills along the West Coast from the Bering Strait south that
will weaken a bit Fri.

A strong low will move north into the southeast Bering Sea by 3am
Sat, and to the Yukon Delta as a 984 mb low by 3pm Sat, then to
near Cape Lisburne by 3pm Sun. An occluded front with this feature
will move notrh over SE Alaska by 3am Sat, to the YK Delta to
Bettles to Delta Junction by 3pm Sat, and along the Brooks range
by 3pm Sun. From Fri night through Sat, expect 1-3 inches of snow
and blowing snow along the West Coast with these feature, 6-10
inches of snow over the Western and Central Interior northwest of
Tanana, and 6-10 inches of snow over south slopes of the Alaska
Range, with south winds gusting to 50 mph through the Alaska
Range. The southeast Interior will be under downslope conditions
Fri night into Sat night.

An Arctic Cold front trailing this strong low will move over the
West Coast Sat night, and then move east across the Interior Sun
and Sun night. Expect snow to spread east across Northern Alaska
with this front with several more inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions on
large scale pattern through Sun, but the ECMF and NAM differ from
GFS/Canadian on details of short wave located near Cold Bay on
Fri as it moves north over Western Alaska Sat and Sat night. The
ECMF and NAM are weaker and faster with this feature than the GFS
and Canadian. The ECMF has been more consistent with this feature
on Fri night and Sat, and with the NAM now coming in line favor
the ECMF and NAM for Fri night into Sat, but with the
acknowledgement that there is still above normal uncertainty from
Fri night into Sun on track and timing.

At 850 MB temperatures range from -6C along the Alaska Range to
minus 30C over the North Slope. Temps will drop through Fri over
the West Coast with the -30C line dropping south to Nome.
Temperatures will warm significantly all areas Fri night and Sat
before cooling from the West on Sun.

With precip, models have modest agreement through Fri, then the
NAM and ECMF have a bit faster northeast movement of precip from
Fri night through Sun than the GFS. At this time favor a blend of
models for precip location and amounts through 3pm Fri, then a
blend of the ECMF and NAM from Fri night into Sun.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on features over
northern Alaska. High pressure over Eastern Russia is verified
about 6 mb too weak on models, but this is far west of the Bering
Strait so do not expect this to affect Alaska significantly.
Models have similar solutions through 3pm Fri. From Fri night
into Sun the ECMF and NAM are weaker and faster than the GFS in
moving the surface low near Cold Bay north over Western Alaska. At
this time favor the NAM and ECMF from Fri night into Sun on
surface features.

Bottom line is we will use a blend of models through 3pm Fri, then
use a blend of the NAM and ECMF for precip, temps and winds from
Fri night into Sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222.
&&

JB FEB 20