Wind Chill Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
503 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

.Synopsis...It's a cold morning across portions of northern
Alaska with temperatures well into the 30's and 40's below zero
range from the eastern Arctic south into the Interior. Some of the
colder valley locations have dipped below -50F. Warmer air
currently moving into western Alaska will spread east with warming
temperatures into the weekend. Gusty winds along West Coast Capes
with blowing snow and fog will reduce visibility from the Bering
Strait north to Cape Lisburne into Friday morning. Northerly
winds in the Alaska Range passes producing wind chills to 40 below
will diminish later today. Snow will begin to spread into western
Alaska south of the Brooks Range tonight and Friday, then into
the Interior this weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast models are in relatively good agreement in the short term
with the main synoptic features. They were underestimating the
wind speeds along the West Coast Capes and we have nudged them up
a bit.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Very cold air is still in place
over the eastern Arctic but winds have diminished and wind chill
warnings have ended. A weak weather front over the Chukchi Sea
Coast will move east today. Expect some light snow or flurries but
no significant accumulation. Temperatures will be warming today
and Friday, especially east of Utqiagvik. Gusty winds and low
visibility in blowing snow south of Pt Lay will diminish Thursday
night. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather this weekend with
another slow cooling trend which will extend into early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...Winds generally light and
variable except from the Bering Strait to Point Hope where
southerly winds 30 mph gusting to 45 mph have developed. Blowing
snow in this area will reduce visibility to around one half mile
at times. Winter Weather Advisories continue into early Friday
before diminishing. Temperatures will continue to warm across the
area into Saturday. A low in the Bering Sea will push snow to the
St Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait, and the Norton Sound
Region Thursday evening and Friday. Snowfall will move into the
western Interior Friday night and persist into Saturday. Snowfall
totals will be mainly from 1 to 2 inches.

Central and Eastern Interior...This morning will be the coldest of
the week with temperatures warming into the weekend. The coldest
readings are from Fairbanks north to the Brooks Range. Many
locations are 30 degrees or more below normal for early March.
Winds are generally light and variable except near south sides of
the passes in Alaska Range. Winds in those areas gusting to 25 to
30 mph will produce Wind Chill to 40 below at times but will
moderate today. Clouds and areas of snow will move in this weekend
with light amounts expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A progressive pattern
continues next week with a series of lows moving from west to east
across the state. There is uncertainty and differences between the
models on track and timing of these lows. But the general
consensus is that low pressure moving across Southcentral Alaska
will bring snow to the Interior Monday and move to the Alcan
border on Tuesday. Another surge of cold air will sweep across
northern Alaska bringing a period of below normal temperatures.
Another front will then move into the West Coast late Wednesday
and spread more snow eastward on Thursday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

MAR 20