Wind Chill Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2020

.Synopsis...Generally clearing and colder through the week. A low
moving into the Eastern Arctic will bring some gusty winds,
flurries, blowing and drifting snow, and cold Wind Chill to the
Eastern Arctic Coast. Locally on the West Coast cold Wind Chill is
expected, otherwise generally partly cloudy with light winds.
The Interior will be mostly clear with light winds and cold
temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 10/12Z solutions continue good agreement in the
short term, and they continue to come into better agreement in the
mid range and extended periods as the ECMWF solution moves toward
concensus with the GFS. Run to run we are not seeing some of the
wild jumps in the extended that we were seeing last week. This
means cooler temperatures than previously advertised are likely
through the weekend for most of the forecast area. Surface
solutions initialized well against the 10/15Z surface analysis
with major features with 1 mb and no significant differences in
location. Temperatures will again be the biggest challenge, mainly
because they will be falling through the evening and overnight for
much of the forecast area. Precipitation will be an even blend.
Will be using a blend of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF as they are
similar and seem to be handling the low backing southwest to the
Eastern Arctic Coast the best at this time.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the Northwest Territories
extends northwest over the Northeast Arctic to a 524 dam high 700
nm north of Demarcation Point this afternoon and will be cut off
by a 509 dam low over Banks Island that is backing to the
southwest over the Beaufort Sea. The high will persist along 80N
through the week. A 505 dam low over the Arctic Plain will move
over the Eastern Brooks Range tonight at 507 dam, and into the
Northwest Territories by Tuesday afternoon at 509 dam. A shortwave
extending southeast from the low will move east of the AlCan this
evening. The low moving over the Beaufort Sea will be 300 nm
north of Demarcation Point Tue afternoon, and 200 nm north of
Demarcation Point Wednesday morning at 508 dam. The low will
continue to move south to 100 nm north of Kaktovik by Thursday
morning. A ridge over the Northeast Pacific extends northwest over
Sand Point to the Western Gulf of Anadyr. The ridge axis will
move to lie from Kodiak City to Emmonak to the Chukotsk Peninsula
Tue morning, and Homer to Golovin to the Chukotsk Peninsula by
Tuesday afternoon. A 530 dam high will develop along the ridge
axis near St Lawrence Island Tuesday night as the ridge axis moves
to lie from Yakutat to Minchumina to Emmonak to the high 200 nm
west of Gambell. A 520 dam closed low will develop 200 nm south of
Sand Point Tuesday evening and move to 300 nm south of Prince
William Sound by Wednesday evening. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm
lies south of the forecast area. The -20C isotherm lies from Eagle
to Glennallen to Sleetmute to Emmonak to Gambell. A pool of cold
air with a -34C center is centered over the Arctic Plain. Tuesday
afternoon the -20C isotherm will lie from AlCan Border crossing to
Anderson to Kotzebue and northwest. The pool of cold air will be
centered over the Northern Yukon Territory. Wednesday afternoon
the -20C isotherm will lie from the Eastern Brooks Range to Dot
Lake to Central to Ambler to Point Hope and the pool of cold air
will be centered 200 nm north of Prudhoe Bay. The -10C isotherm
will make an appearance in the Lower Yukon Delta and the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley.

Surface...Low pressure lingering over the Chukchi Sea and Arctic
Coast this afternoon with a dissipating 1018 mb low near Red Dog,
and a 1017 mb low just north of Wainwright. Low pressure extends
east across the southern Beaufort Sea, then north to a 1007 mb low
that is moving southwest out of the Canadian Archipelago. High
pressure is building into the Central and Eastern Interior behind
the front that will be exiting the state this evening. A 1029 mb
high has developed near Lake Minchumina and high pressure extends
southwest to a 1030 mb high near Bethel, then northwest to the
Gulf of Anadyr and into Siberia. High pressure over Siberia
extends north to a 1031 mb high near 80N 180. By Tuesday afternoon
The lows over the northwest coast will merge, move east, and
merge with 1019 mb low in the Central Beaufort Sea. Broad high
pressure will develop over the state centered near Huslia with a
1037 mb high in the Upper Tanana Valley and another near Buckland.
High pressure extends northwest over the Chukchi Sea to Wrangel
Island, then north into the high Arctic. Tuesday night a strong
low develops near the Central Aleutians and by Wednesday afternoon
it will be just east of Kodiak City at 985 mb. High pressure will
lie across the state from Chalkyitsik to the Seward Peninsula,
and over the Arctic Plain with a 1028 mb high near Umiat. The high
pressure will be being squeezed as the low over the Beaufort Sea
will continue to back to the southwest to be 100 nm north of
Prudhoe Bay.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Patchy clouds over the area. The
low moving into the area from the northeast will bring some
increased winds to the Eastern Arctic Coast and Eastern Brooks
Range as high pressure builds over Interior Alaska and the
pressure gradient tightens across the area. Not expecting a lot of
snowfall as it will be mostly flurries. Blowing and drifting snow
developing in those windy areas, along with cold Wind Chill.
Winds gusting to 40 mph expected around Kaktovik tonight into
Tuesday. Cold temperatures will continue with the coldest
temperatures hanging on from Utqiagvik west.

West Coast and Western Interior...High pressure with clearing
skies and cold temperatures. Cold Wind chill in Eastern Norton
Sound, and on the Bering Strait Coast so Advisories issued. Wind
Chill will be cold across the area so caution should be used when
outdoors. Northeast and east winds will be picking up in the Lower
Yukon Delta Tuesday to 15 to 25 mph, then diminishing Tuesday
night.

Central and Eastern Interior...Becoming partly cloudy to mostly
clear as the front exits the state to the east. Temperatures are
already falling and will continue to fall tonight. High
temperatures will not recover much Tuesday. Temperatures will be a
bit warmer in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley on Wednesday,
then cool back down Thursday. Winds generally light, but locally
cold Wind Chill may occur so use caution when outdoors.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Cooler temperatures will
prevail across the forecast area with just a short reprieve
Saturday night and Sunday in the Central and Eastern Interior
south of the Yukon River. A little snow will sneak into the
Southeast Interior on the weekend, otherwise no significant
snowfall is expected until late Sunday when snow will push north
over the Upper Kuskokwim and into the Upper Koyukuk late Sunday
evening. Snow will spread east into the Middle Tanana Valley and
the Upper Yukon Flats Monday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 20