Wind Chill Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKST Tue Feb 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow is expected to persist for the next couple of days
from the Y-K Delta, across the Interior, and northeast to the
eastern Brooks Range. Gusty north winds will linger across the
eastern Bering Sea and West Coast, supporting low visibility,
blowing snow, and occasional blizzard conditions particularly near
the Bering Strait where winds are strongest. High pressure will
build over the Chukchi Sea Thursday, pushing the snow south and
east and reinforcing cold temperatures across Western and Northern
Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
Longwave troughing encompasses the eastern Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas southwest to the central and western Bering Sea. The longwave
is anchored in place by closed lows north of Point Barrow and
Kamchatka, respectively. A ridge axis extends north from the
eastern Pacific across the Alaska panhandle, Northwest
Territories, and into the Canadian Archipelago. The Kamchatka low
will push a series of shortwaves into the easter Bering Sea,
which will strengthen and draw energy from the north Pacific. This
will chip away at the ridge and result in a very progressive
pattern across the southern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska through
this week. Meanwhile, the low north of Point Barrow will
gradually track southwest into the Chukchi Sea by Thursday as high
pressure strengthens over the Siberian Arctic. Model guidance
generally remains in good agreement into the weekend, favoring
continued longwave troughing over the Bering Sea with a return to
ridging over eastern Alaska and western Canada.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
In contrast to the southern half of the state, northern Alaska
weather looks to change little over the course of the week. A
weather front originating from a low in the Bering Sea stretches
across the Interior to the Eastern Brooks Range and Mackenzie Bay.
This will support light snow across the eastern Brooks Range in
the amount of roughly 2 to 4 inches through Thursday. North and
west of the front, north winds driven by strong high pressure over
the Siberian Arctic will support continued cold temperatures and
mainly clear skies. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the
eastern Beaufort Coast due to a combination of reduced visibility
due to blowing snow, and wind chills around 50 to 60 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front extends northeast from low pressure situated over
Nunivak Island. Snowfall is decreasing in intensity, though light
snow is expected to linger through Thursday along the front.
Additionally, very strong north winds with gusts to 60 mph will
continue to cause blizzard conditions at times for St. Lawrence
Island as well as the Bering Strait region through tonight. Most
areas south and east of a line from Emmonak to Koyuk to Shungnak
can expect to pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches per day through
Thursday. Near freezing temperatures along the coast from Cape
Romanzof south may support periods of mixed precipitation through
this evening before going to all snow as temperatures decrease
tonight. By Thursday afternoon, the front will begin to drop
southeast to be replaced by colder temperatures and mostly clear
skies.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A complex arrangement of surface features including an extended
frontal boundary spanning the Yukon Delta to the eastern Brooks
Range, as well as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska continues to
support light snow across much of the region. Light snow will
persist through Friday for most areas north and west of a line
from Delta Junction to Eagle. The greatest accumulation is
generally expected from Minto to Bettles, where an additional 4 to
7 inches of snow is possible through early Friday. Fairbanks can
expect roughly an inch or two of accumulation during that time
frame. Snowfall may increase in intensity at times, resulting in
low visibility. The forecast rate of snowfall stands just short of
advisory criteria, though we will monitor carefully for any
changes. Weak southerly flow across the Alaska Range will support
slightly warmer than average temperatures through this weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

COWMAN FEB 20