Wind Advisory 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

522 
WWAK73 PAFG 250050
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 PM AKST Thu Dec 24 2020

AKZ226-250200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-201225T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
350 PM AKST Thu Dec 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 AM AKST Thu Dec 24 2020

SYNOPSIS...Active pattern on the West Coast as a low moves up the
coast today and tonight with some clearing early Friday, before a
low to the south sends more clouds and snow north into the area.
The front that moved north across the state yesterday is over the
Arctic Coast and will weaken in the area as it drops a little snow
today. Interior Alaska will generally see clear to partly cloudy
conditions with cooling temperatures the next few days.

DISCUSSION...

Models...24/00Z solutions not showing much difference as ridging
is building in. Solutions initialized well and trend in similar
fashion through the midrange and even into the early extended
periods. Will be using a general blend of the solutions, but will
maintain the higher precipitation probabilities that we have in
the database to better represent current conditions. Same goes for
winds, will maintain the higher gap winds, that are in the
database, that will be developing Saturday in the Alaska Range,
elsewhere will lean toward the NAM, but not too much. High
temperatures in the Interior seem a bit warm considering the sun
angle and general seasonal trends, so will be decreasing those a
few degrees.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging is pushing in over the eastern half
of the state with troughing over the western half. Troughing
extends from a 484 dam low over the Northern Kamchatka Peninsula
southeast to a 516 dam low 400 nm south of Kodiak Island.
Troughing is also holding over the Arctic as it extends west from
a 496 dam low northeast of the Beaufort Sea with the trough over
80N. Ridging is holding over the Eastern Arctic Coast and extends
northwest over the New Siberian Islands. By Friday morning the
ridging over the state will push northwest over most of the
mainland with troughing over the West Coast. The trough over the
Arctic will swing south to 75N, and troughing over the Bering Sea
will continue with a 507 dam low moving over the Central Bering
Sea as the low over Kamchatka moves over Siberia. Saturday morning
the ridging will have pulled back a bit from the coast with 519
dam heights over the Western Interior as the trough associated
with the Central Bering Sea low moves to lie from the Gulf of
Anadyr over Nunivak Island and southwest Kodiak Island. The
troughing over the Arctic will swing south over the Northwest
Arctic Coast as the low moves southwest over the Northern Beaufort
Sea at 493 dam.

At 850 hpa...The -10 isotherm is generally over the Arctic and
West Coast with warmer temperatures over the mainland and cooler
temperatures over the marine areas. There is little change over
the next couple days with the exception of slightly cooler
temperatures over the northwest mainland and Arctic Coast and
Plain. Saturday night the cooler temperatures will push south over
the Brooks Range, then slide back north Monday.

Surface...Weather front has moved to the Brooks Range with low
pressure over the West Coast and high pressure pushing in over the
Southeast Interior. High pressure persists over the Arctic from a
1046 mb high near 80N 90E. A 986 mb low in the Lower Yukon Delta
will move north to Kotzebue Sound by Thursday afternoon at 995 mb,
and merge into the front over the Arctic Coast Thursday night as
it weakens and stalls. A 984 mb low near the North Pole will move
south to the Northern Beaufort Sea Friday morning, then stall and
weaken in place as it swings a weak front south over the Northern
Arctic by Saturday morning. High pressure will be trapped between
the lows across the Central Arctic and southern Beaufort Sea. A
983 mb low south of Kodiak Island will move north to Bristol Bay
by Friday afternoon at 989 mb then weaken and merge with a 935 mb
low that will move to the Western Aleutians Saturday morning. A
976 mb low will move northwest off the Southeast Panhandle Coast
to the Northern Gulf of Alaska by Friday night then dissipate as
it moves into the southwest mainland. A 1012 mb high in the Upper
Tanana Valley will strengthen to 1023 mb as it moves to the
Central Yukon Territory tonight, then merges with a 1028 mb high
over the Yukon/Northwest Territories Border Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front has moved into the area and
is spreading snow across the area today. Not expecting a lot of
snow, but some areas could see up to an inch. Winds will be
diminishing through the day with winds generally variable to 10
mph. Temperatures warm a degree or two today, but will cool a few
degrees Thursday night through Saturday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of clouds and snow along
the coast, with a mix of clouds, snow, and clearing inland. A low
moving up the coast today will spread snow up the coast and may
spread some flurries into the Western Interior today. As the low
moves to Kotzebue Sound flurries will taper off inland as the snow
lingers from the Lower Yukon Delta to the Upper Kobuk and Noatak
Basins. The heaviest snowfall will be in the Nulato Hills and the
Upper Kobuk with up to 3 inches possible today and tonight.
A low moving north out of the Pacific will send another shot of
snow north into the Western Interior Friday spreading snow west
over the coast by Friday night. Winds generally variable to 10 mph
along the coast with light and variable winds inland through
Friday morning, then increasing north winds on the West Coast
Friday. Temperatures cooling through the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...Pretty quiet the next few days
with partly cloudy to clear skies except for the area from
Coldfoot west along the Brooks Range where clouds and flurries
will hang in until late this evening before clearing. Temperatures
will be cooling. Winds generally light and variable, but the
Tanana Valley Jet will kick in around Delta Junction tonight with
winds increasing to southeast at 25 mph gusting to 45 mph Friday
morning and settling down late Friday evening. Winds will pick up
near the Alaska Range Passes Saturday morning gusting to around 40
mph, then Sunday morning increase to gusting around 50 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A 940 mb low will move to the
Central Aleutians Sunday morning sending a weather front and to
the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island. The front will
continue north and east Monday spreading snow up the coast and
into the Western Interior. High pressure over the Interior will
keep the precipitation generally west of Ruby. A 981 mb low will
move north into Bristol Bay Tuesday and move north up the coast
bringing another round of snow to the area as it moves to the
Northwest Arctic Coast by Thursday with clearing over the West
Coast and Western Interior behind the low. Over most of the
Interior temperatures will be slowly cooling to below zero with
partly cloudy to clear skies. The Arctic will generally be cloudy
with flurries, slightly cooler temperatures and variable winds to
15 mph through Monday, then increasing east winds along the coast
at 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB DEC 20