Wind Advisory 32, NWS Fairbanks, AK

214 
WWAK73 PAFG 082327
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Tue Dec 8 2020

AKZ226-090900-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-201209T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
227 PM AKST Tue Dec 8 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Through Isabell Pass north of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Winds will decrease late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

357 
WWAK73 PAFG 090446
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
746 PM AKST Tue Dec 8 2020

AKZ226-090600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-201209T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
746 PM AKST Tue Dec 8 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKST Mon Dec 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong northeast winds are blowing in many areas from the Brooks
Range south today, causing significant blowing snow and low
visibility over Interior Summits and Brooks Range Passes. Winds in
the Interior will decrease tonight through Wed, while Brooks
Range Passes will blow through Tue. Strong North winds along the
West Coast will persist tonight then decrease slowly Tue into Wed.
Snow occuring in a narrow band from Aniak to Arctic Village will
persist through Tue, then slide east Tue night before moving back
west on Wed. Expect 2-4 inches of snow in the Northern and Western
Interior, with 4-6 inches in zone 215 through Wed.

Moderate downslope conditions over Tanana Valley will persist
through Tue, then weaken Tue night, before returning on Wed. Areas
southeast of Fairbanks will remain dry and warmer than normal
through Wed, but Fairbanks will have a chance of snow Tue night as
flow turns briefly southwest. Will see periods of south winds
gusting 40-50 mph through the Alaska Range Passes, with a slight
chance of freezing rain in Isabell Pass tonight. South sides of
the Alaska Range will see 4-6 inches of snow through Wed.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough stretching from
the Canadian Archipelago southwest of Western Alaska and a ridge
over Western Canada. This pattern will persist through Tue, with
the trough starting to move east on Wed and Thu, and the trough
becoming anchored over Interior Alaska Thu into the weekend.

This pattern has south downslope flow over the SE Interior through
Wed, then break down on Thu. This will result in snow over the
Western and Northern Interior through Wed, with the snow becoming
light and spreading east on Thu as the flow becomes more westerly.
This will also result in above normal temps over Interior through
Wed, then cooling Wed night through Fri, with below normal
temperatures most of Northern Alaska Fri into the weekend.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will build
through Wed. This will cause light northeast winds and stratus and
fog over much of the North Slope into Wed.

A 1001 mb low 60 NM west of Point Hope will move to near Kotzebue
by 3am Tue, then persist into Wed. This will cause snow showers
and north winds 25 mph gusting to 40 mph over the Chukchi Sea
West of Kivalina through Tue.

A strong low over Bristol Bay will weaken slowly in place through
Tue, then move east into the Gulf of Alaska on Wed. A weather
front extending from this low to Aniak to Bettles to Arctic
Village will remain quasi-stationary through 3pm Tue, then move to
McGrath to Tanana to Arctic Village by 3am Wed, to Mcgrath to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Arctic Village by 3pm Wed, then slide east over
the Eastern Interior Wed night and Thu. Expect 2-4 inches of snow
along this front through Tue, with another 1-2 inches Tue night
into Wed.

A strong low will move into the southwest Bering Sea on Wed and
to the southcentral Bering Sea on Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z, and show similar solutions
through Thu. Significant differences develop from Fri through the
weekend, with the ECMF and Canadian deepening a low aloft over
the Interior while the GFS builds a ridge and develops the low
much later than the other models. At this time favor the ECMF for
Fri into the weekend. This should result in well below normal
temperatures much of Nrn AK Fri into the weekend.

With precip, models show same general pattern, but differ slightly
on location and amounts through Wed. Considering that the precip
will occur along a narrow band right along the front, but that the
exact location of the front will be in question, will use a blend
of the GFS, NAM and ECMF models for precip location to broaden
area that precip is possible through Wed. For Wed night and Thu
will use a blend of the NAM and ECMF to reflect the low in the
Northern Gulf of AK.

At the surface, models verify well at 18Z. Models show similar
solutions through 9 pm Mon, then the NAM, Canadian and ECMF move
a deeper low into the Tanana Valley on Tue than the GFS along with
stronger winds through Alaska Range Passes. On Wed and Thu the
NAM and ECMF move a low north in the Gulf of Alaska faster than
the GFS. At this time favor a blend of the NAM and ECMF on
Wed/Thu.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM, GFS
and ECMF for temps, pops through Wed, then use a blend of the NAM
and ECMF for Wed night and Thu. Will use a blend of the NAM and
ECMF for winds tonight through Thu. Will broaden area of precip
tonight through Wed to reflect uncertainty of frontal location.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

JB DEC 20