Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

739 
WWAK73 PAFG 201043
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

AKZ223-210300-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200221T0300Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
143 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds gusting to 55 mph. 

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats. The strongest winds will be
  near Delta Junction. 

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Snow will blow into drifts. Winds are expected to 
  decrease this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-210000-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200221T0000Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
143 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Windy Pass from Denali Park north.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow will blow into drifts. Winds are expected to
  decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-210300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200221T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
143 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range in passes from Trims Camp north. 

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Snow will blow into drifts. Winds are expected to
  decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

979 
WWAK73 PAFG 202026
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1126 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

AKZ225-202130-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200221T0000Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
1126 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ223-226-202130-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200221T0300Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, 
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, 
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1126 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
651 AM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights are:
A low over the Seward Pen will move northeast across Northern
Alaska today and tonight. This will cause snow to spread NE
across northern Alaska today and tonight with another 1-3 inches
accumulation. Along the West Coast, strong north winds on the back
side of this low are causing blowing snow and low visibility with
some blizzard conditions on zones 207 and 213. These winds and
blowing snow will begin to diminish this afternoon as the low
moves east.

A strong low south of Adak will move to the Southeast Bering Sea
this afternoon, over the SW Interior Thu, and over the NE Interior
on Fri. This will bring snow to the Southwest Interior late
tonight and Thu along with weak to moderate chinook winds across
the Alaska Range. The chinook winds will diminish Thu night and
snow will spread to the Eastern Interior Thu night and Fri. Expect
several inches of snow across the Interior with this feature. The
Southwest Interior could see over 4 inches of snow Thu into Fri.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough stretching from
the Chukchi Sea south over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska, and
a ridge over Western Canada and Eastern Alaska. This has created a
south to southwest flow pattern over Northern Alaska, and several
strong short waves and their associated surface systems are
making their way NE across Northern Alaska. The weather with these
systems will be addressed below with surface weather.

The first short wave lies from the Seward Pen to Prince William
Sound, and will move to Cape Lisburne to Glennallen by 3pm Wed,
then to along the Brooks Range by 3am Thu, and along the Arctic
Coast of Alaska by 4pm Thu.

A second strong short wave will from Adak south will move to Cold
Bay south by 3pm Wed, to Bristol Bay south by 3am Thu, to Mcgrath
south by 3pm Thu, then to along the Alcan Border by Fri PM. A
third strong short wave will trail about 12 hours behind this one.

Surface...
A 986 mb low over the Seward Peninsula will move to just north of
Kotzebue as a 992 mb low by 3pm Wed, then weaken on Thu. A weatehr
front stretching from this low to Nuiqsut to a 992 mb low near
Inuvik will persist into Fri.

A 986 mb low over the Seward Peninsula will move to just north of
Kotzebue as a 992 mb low by 3pm Wed, then weaken on Thu. An
occluded front extends from this low to Umiat to a 995 mb low 70
NM north of Deadhorse to a 993 mb low near Inuvik, with that
portion of the front remaining in place through Fri. A cold front
stretching from Inuvik to a 986 mb low near Wittier will move to
Old Crow to a 992 MB low near Delta Junction by 3pm Wed, with the
front and low dissipating Wed night. Expect snow along and south
of the occluded front and cold front to taper off tonight, with
1-3 inches of snow through tonight in most areas.

North winds of 30 to 40 mph from the Bering Strait to Point Hope
are causing blowing snow and areas of Blizzard conditions. Those
winds will decrease and blowing snow lessen this afternoon and
evening as the low center moves north and weakens.

A strong low south of Adak will move to the southeast Bering Sea
this afternoon,to Bristol Bay as a 968 mb low by 3am Thu, to
Illiamna as a 972 mb low by 3pm Thu, to near Wasilla as a 980 mb
low by 3am Fri, and then over the Eastern Interior as a 989 mb low
by 3pm Fri. This will bring snow to the Southwest Interior late
tonight and Thu along with weak to moderate chinook winds across
the Alaska Range late tonight through Thu night. The chinook winds
will diminish Thu night and snow will spread to the Eastern
Interior Thu night and Fri. Expect several inches of snow across
the Interior with this feature. The Southwest Interior could see
over 4 inches of snow Thu into Fri. The ALaska Range could see
south winds of 30 mph with local gusts to 50 mph from early Thu
through late Thu.

Temperatures will remain well above normal today, the cool
slightly Thu, with stronger cooling to near normal on Fri and
dropping well below normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z and show similar solutions
through Fri. At 850 MB temperatures remain fairly steady through
Fri AM, then see significant cooling Fri PM through Sat.

Precipitation fields show similar solutions through 3pm Thu, with
slight differences after that time. Will use a blend of the
GFS/NAM and ECMF through 3pm Thu, then as blend of the GFS and NAM
from Thu night into Fri.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify 2 mb too weak on the low over
the Seward Pen, 3 to 5 mb too weak on the low in Inuvik, and none
of the models indicate the 995 mb low that is 70 NM north of
Deadhorse as shown by Sat Pic and Surface analysis. For these
reasons, expect north winds along the West Coast to be several kt
stronger than models indicate today. Also expect the trough north
of the Eastern Arctic Coast to remain stronger than models
indicate through Thu. This will cause light east winds along the
Eastern Arctic Coast to turn west today and remain west into Thu
and Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.
&&

JB FEB 20