Wind Advisory 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

786 
WWAK72 PAFG 301403
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
603 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

AKZ213-310200-
/O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0002.200830T2000Z-200831T0600Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including the cities of Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, 
Teller, Wales, and Diomede
603 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 35 mph gusting to 60 mph.

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

AKZ227-310200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-200831T0600Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
603 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Winds southeast 30 mph gusting to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Near passes in the Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

498 
WWAK72 PAFG 302252
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

AKZ213-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200831T1800Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including the cities of Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, 
Teller, Wales, and Diomede
252 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 35 mph gusting to 60 mph.

* WHERE...St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ227-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-200831T2000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
252 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Winds southeast 30 mph gusting to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Near passes in the Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until noon AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

370 
WWAK72 PAFG 311039
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

AKZ213-311145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200831T1800Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including the cities of Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, 
Teller, Wales, and Diomede
239 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ227-311145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-200831T2000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
239 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
443 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds near Alaska Range Passes will diminish a
bit during the afternoon, then increase in the evening and remain
strong and gusty through Monday morning. A few shower this
afternoon mainly east and southeast of Ft Yukon with an isolated
thunderstorm possible. More showers will move into the interior
late tonight, but with the strong winds in the Alaska Range expect
most of it to be north of the Tanana Valley. Showers moving north
over the West Coast and Western Interior today and will persist in
the area through midweek. Strong offshore winds developing on the
West Coast will persist into Tuesday with strong winds persisting
just offshore through the end of the week. Potential for water to
back up in the Kotlik River has decreased as winds will be more
northerly, but will continue to watch it closely. High pressure
persists in the Arctic with northeast to east flow dominating
until the low moves into the Interior and the flow will change to
east and southeast. The change in flow may push the stratus
offshore Monday night and Tuesday, but not expecting it to last
too long. Not much change in temperatures across the area, but do
expect some cooler temperatures in the Brooks Range over the next
few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 30/00Z solutions show good run to run continuity, but
they are moving the low just a bit slower than previous solutions.
At the surface solutions are in good agreement as well, but there
are subtle changes in the location of the lows and orientation of
the isobars that will change the impacts as the storm moves into
the area. The remnants of Typhoon Bavi merging with the low in the
Aleutians seems reasonable and does not appear to have an impact
on the solutions in the short term. Solutions keep the ridging
over the Arctic, but are now moving the high to the west and that
will allow broad troughing to develop across the Arctic extending
southwest over the Central bering Sea and Western Aleutians. in
place with little change through the weekend. The solutions agree
on weak ridging building north over the AlCan Border midweek.
Biggest challenge for the solutions remains the winds, but at this
point will not be making any big changes to the database unless we
see a significant issue. Solutions do agree, but have the same
issue as yesterday in not making winds strong enough near the
Alaska Range Passes. Convective indicies are weak, but still
expect some isolated thunderstorms east and southeast of Ft Yukon
this afternoon. Precipitation associated with the low will move
over the Lower Yukon and Alaska Range Sunday night, then into the
Interior, but expect areas near the Alaska Range to be in the rain
shadow and it appears that all the solutions have not picked up on
that so will use a blend through the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 526 dam low is near Adak with a 525 dam
low over Nikolski. Troughing extends northeast over Norton Sound
to a 547 dam low 300 nm north of Kaktovik. Ridging has moved east
of the AlCan this morning, and ridging over the Arctic has pulled
back over the Siberian Arctic. The lows over the Aleutians will
merge this morning and move over Cape Newenham at 520 dam with
trough extending north to a 541 dam low 100 nm north of
Wainwright. By Monday morning the low will move over Sleetmute at
526 dam with a shortwave extending northwest over Point Lay,
another northeast over Kaktovik, and a third extending east over
the south slopes of the Alaska Range and the Copper River Basin.
The broad area of lower heights will remain over the area into
Tuesday as the primary low moves over the Upper Yukon Flats at 535
dam with a 535 dam low over the Chukchi Sea and a 537 dam low
over McGrath. Weak ridging will build north over the Central and
Eastern Interior Tuesday night and Wednesday pushing the lower
heights over the West Coast and Northeast Bering Sea with a 538
dam low over the Bering Strait. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm will
slowly be pushed south to the crest of the Brooks Range today and
will push southeast over the Seward Peninsula starting Tuesday.

Surface...Broad low pressure lies over the Interior from the
Brooks Range southwest to a 982 mb low near Adak this morning.
High pressure persists over the Arctic extending southeast from a
1035 mb high 500 nm northwest of Wrangel Island. Not much change
by this afternoon as a weak trough will continue to lie along the
north slopes of the Alaska Range, but the remnants of Typhoon
Bavi will move to south of the low near Adak. Still not a lot of
change by Sunday morning as the high will remain northwest of
Wrangel Island at 1033 mb, but a front associated with the low
near Adak will move to lie over the Pribilofs to Kuskokwim Bay to
a 998 mb low near Seward and southeast. Leeside troughing will
develop north of the Alaska Range Saturday evening with a tight
pressure gradient developing across the range. The remnants of
Typhoon Bavi will move to Nikolski at 969 mb Sunday morning, then
to Bristol Bay Sunday evening as the low near Adak merges with it.
The front will weaken and dissipate as it moves northeast over
mainland Alaska, but leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range
which weakened during the day Sunday will strengthen with a very
tight pressure gradient developing across the range producing some
very strong gap winds Sunday night and Monday. The low will
continue to move northeast to be over the Central Interior Monday
morning at 986 mb. This will also push the high pressure over the
Arctic north of 75N. The low will stall over the Interior as it
slowly weakens and by Tuesday afternoon troughing will lie from a
1002 mb low in the Upper Tanana Valley to a 1003 mb low near
Huslia.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...No significant changes, but the
stratus may give way to some higher clouds as the strong low moves
into Interior Alaska and lower pressure pushes north over the
area. Winds east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph for most areas. No
significant change in temperatures except at higher elevations of
the Brooks Range temperatures will be cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers will be persistent in
the Lower Yukon Delta spreading north as the low moves into the
interior. Strong winds increasing from the northeast to east at
10 to 35 mph with the strongest winds along the coast gusting
around 45 mph. The potential for water backing up in the Kotlik
River has diminished. No significant changes in temperatures
through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Patchy fog this morning, then
partly to mostly sunny into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
and showers east of Ft Yukon and northeast of Chicken. Strong
winds near the Alaska Range Passes will diminish for a short time
today, then increase tonight to gusting to around 65 mph. The low
moving into the Interior Monday will eventually spread showers
over most of the Interior. Temperatures will be slowly cooling.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Still some potential for
elevated surf on the north side of St Lawrence Island, but models
keep moving the low to the northwest cutting off the fetch
through the Bering Strait, will continue to evaluate the
situation. The move of the low also decreases the potential for
issues at Kotlik with water being backed up in the river.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Broad area of low pressure
will persist over the state with periods of showers on the West
Coast and in the Interior. A low moving into the Interior Thursday
will bring increased showers to the Interior. Expect some clearing
late in the week as weak high pressure moves over the area. No
changes for the Arctic with stratus and periods of fog.
Temperatures will cool slightly as the week goes on.

&&

.Fire Weather...Some Isolated wet thunderstorms in the Upper
Yukon Valley and strong gusty south winds near the Alaska Range
through Monday, but with Relative Humidity values generally above
40 percent, and high temperatures in the 50s and 60s do not
anticipate any issues. Showers eventually moving into the Interior
Monday during the day with potential for wetting rains. Showery
conditions continue out west with no anticipated issues.

&&

.Hydrology...No issues at this time, and rainfall over the next
few days is not expected to create any. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB AUG 20