Wind Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

384 
WWAK73 PAFG 210835
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1135 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

AKZ223-210945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200121T0900Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1135 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1258 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.Synopsis...A little snow out west as a decaying weather front
moves into the Western Interior and dissipates. A second front
will move to the coast tonight and move northeast across the state
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing at least a chance of snow to most
locations. Temperatures on the rise for at least a couple days
with some increased cloudiness and weak south flow. Temperatures
falling late in the week and through the weekend. Winds generally
light and variable in the interior with the exceptions of the
Delta Junction area, and the Bering Strait Coast where east to
southeast winds to 25 mph will prevail today before diminishing.
No change in the Arctic as a band of stratus will bring low clouds
and patchy fog to the Central Arctic Coast at times. As flow
switches back to northeast and east this evening the stratus and
fog will impact the Eastern Arctic Coast as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Excellent run to run continuity, even into the extended
periods with the 20/12Z solutions as they develop an omega block
pattern over the area late in the week. Surface solutions
initialized well against 20/15Z local analysis, but major features
strength continues to be amiss. Highs in the Upper Tanana Valley
and Upper Yukon Flats continue to initialize about 5 mb high than
the solutions, while the lows to the west are about 3 mb weaker
than the 20/12Z solutions. Will lean on an even blend including
the current forecast database. Will need to make some minor
adjustments locally to the temperatures to match with current
temperatures and trends.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging associated with a 521 dam high over
Banks Island extends northwest over the Beaufort Sea. Weak ridging
is pushing northwest over the Interior with the axis lying from
Eagle to Point Hope. Troughing that extended east over the
nearshore waters yesterday from a 493 dam low 200 nm south of
Wrangel Island has moved to lie along 75N with a 504 dam low 300
nm north of Wainwright, and the low near Wrangel Island has moved
to 200 nm west of Wrangel Island. A 494 dam low has move over the
Gulf of Anadyr with troughing extending southeast over Nunivak
Island and southern Kodiak Island this afternoon. By Tuesday
afternoon the ridging over the state will slide north over 75N,
while the troughing that was over the Arctic will slide north to
80N as the low west of Wrangel Island moves to 300 nm northwest of
the Island. The low over the Gulf of Anadyr will start to fill
and move north as the trough moves northeast to lie from the
Chukotsk Peninsula over Emmonak to Anchorage to Yakutat. The
trough will broaden by Wednesday afternoon as the primary
shortwave moves to lie from Wainwright to Old Crow YT. A second
shortwave will move over the West Coast to lie from Shishmaref to
King Salmon. Ridging moves over the Western Bering Sea Wednesday
morning, and will be over the Central Bering Sea Wednesday
afternoon as it continues to build north. At 850 hpa...-10C
isotherm lies from Chalkyitsik to Dillingham with a pool of -20C
over the Upper Tanana Valley. Temperatures in the Upper Tanana
Valley will warm slightly, otherwise not significant change over
the forecast area until Wednesday morning when cold air will push
southeast over the West Coast and Western Interior. The -20C
isotherm will lie from Point Lay to Unalakleet to Cape Romanzof by
Wednesday afternoon, and pushes southeast over most of the
forecast area by Thursday afternoon.

Surface...High pressure continue to dominate over Interior Alaska
with low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the West Coast.
High pressure will weaken allowing the decaying weather fronts to
move northeast across the state Tuesday and Wednesday. 1014 mb
highs are in the Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon Flats.
Leeside troughing is redeveloping north of the Brooks Range as the
trough that was over the area Sunday has moved offshore and will
dissipate. The low that was southeast of Wrangel Island yesterday
has moved to 100 nm northwest of the Island. Troughing extends
southeast from the low to a dissipating 990 mb low in the Bering
Strait, then southwest over Gambell to a 989 mb low 100 nm west of
St Matthew Island. A low that was in the southern Gulf of Alaska
has moved into Southcentral Alaska at 991 mb and will weaken and
dissipate over Prince William Sound by Wednesday afternoon. A 996
mb low will develop in the leeside troughing in the Arctic Plain
and will lift northeast offshore Tuesday evening.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some stratus, flurries, and
patchy dense fog along the Central coast, spreading to the Eastern
Coast as the front swings around to northeast and east as low
pressure build east across the Plains. A front over the Chukchi
Sea will spread some flurries or light snow to the Northwest
Coast tonight. Winds 5 to 20 mph across the area. Temperatures
warming tonight across the area, then start cooling Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying weather front
spreading flurries or light snow across most of the area west of a
line from Noatak to Galena to Anvik. Snow will spread inland
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts will range up to 2
inches. Winds generally light and variable inland and northeast
to southeast along the coast at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures warmer
through Tuesday, then cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds and warmer
temperatures. Increasing chances of snow starting Tuesday evening.
Winds generally light and variable, the exception will be the
Delta Junction area where winds will be gusting to 25 to 30 mph
through tonight, then diminish to 5 to 10 mph Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Decreasing chances of
precipitation with more breaks in the clouds. Cold air digs back
south over the state with temperatures falling through the
weekend. A front moving around a low in the Gulf of Alaska will
move into the Southeast Interior Sunday spreading snow northwest
into the Tanana Valley east of Tanana.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 20