Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry weather will persist through Saturday for Interior.
The Interior will see increased chances for rainfall Sunday and
Monday. A persistent low in the Bering Sea will bring cloudy and
showery conditions to the west coast into the weekend. Areas of
fog are expected along the Arctic Coast into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There is relatively good model agreement out through the Saturday. An
upper level ridge will continue build over the Interior tonight
and will persist into Friday. The ridge axis will push east over
the Yukon Territory on Saturday. A strong upper low will persist
into the weekend over the southern Bering Sea.

Central and Eastern Interior: Warm and dry conditions will persist
through Saturday. A thermal trough that is just north of the
Alaska Range will continue to bring breezy conditions areas just
north of the Alaska Range through tomorrow morning, especially
near passes. The thermal trough will move to the north on Friday,
reaching the Yukon Flats by Friday afternoon. Winds in the Alaska
Range will diminish on Friday as the thermal trough moves north.
Winds will increase on Friday in the northeastern interior. A
pattern change is expected for Sunday and Monday. An easterly wave
looks to bring precipitation to the Interior as early as
Sunday; however, there is still model disagreement on the exact
timing and placement of the precipitation. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible on Sunday, especially on the leading edge of the
easterly wave.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: A low moving north through the
Chukchi Sea will bring some showers this evening to areas west of
Wainwright. An upper level ridge building in from the south
tonight will bring a warming trend in temperatures over the next
few days. The largest increase in temperatures is expected in the
Brooks Range. Easterly winds will allow fog and low stratus to
persist over the next few days along the coast, especially to the
east of Utqiagvik. Some light flurries are also possible in the
foggy areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front rotating around a large area of low pressure in the
Southern Bering Sea will advect in moisture and clouds over the
West Coast and Western Interior today through Friday, increasing
chances of rain and clouds over much of the region. Another wave
of energy will move in Saturday afternoon, increasing the chances
of rain mainly along the west coast, south of the Seward
Peninsula.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will continue for Friday and Saturday for
much of the Interior as a ridge remains in place aloft. A thermal
trough that is in place along the Tanana River is currently
southerly gap winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph to the
Alaska Range. Red Flag Warnings are currently in place for zones
223 and 226 for the strong gap winds along with low RH values.
The thermal trough will move to the north on Friday. This will
cause the gap winds in the Alaska Range to decrease; however as
the thermal trough moves to the northeasterly winds to pick up
over the Yukon Flats Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for the Yukon Flats on Friday. Minimum relative
humidity levels over much of the Interior will be in the upper
teens to 30 percent with the lowest values over the Yukon Flats,
the Middle Tanana Valley, and along the northern foothills of the
Alaska Range through Saturday. Temperatures will range from the
upper 60 to middle 70s over much of the central and eastern
interior Friday and continue through Saturday. An easterly wave
looks to move into the southeastern Interior as early as Sunday.
Right now there is some model disagreement on the exact timing at
the moment. This easterly wave will bring increased chances for
wetting rainfall to the central and eastern interior for Sunday
and Monday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, especially
along the leading edge of the easterly wave on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most rivers south of the Brooks Range are continuing to trend
down, but there remains above normal flow levels in some areas.
Glacially fed rivers may remain high as snowmelt continues in the
higher terrain. Breakup is slowly starting in the Arctic with more
open leads appearing. As temperatures warm through the weekend
over this region, expect increased river rises and possible local
ice jams. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch for AKZ220.

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

MAY 20