Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

546 
WWAK63 PAFG 020009
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020

AKZ219-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200602T0600Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
409 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...From Bettles West. 

* TIMING...Noon to 10 PM today.

* WINDS...East 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...53 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

619 
WWAK63 PAFG 020533
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
933 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020


AKZ219-020645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200602T0600Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
933 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.Synopsis...More thunderstorms and showers across the Interior and
West Coast today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected south of
Fairbanks to Ruby to Galena, and across the northern Nulato Hills
to the Interior Seward Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms and
showers this afternoon south of the Yukon River in the Central and
Eastern Interior, and for all of the inland areas to the west.
Strong winds in the Arctic will diminish slowly starting tonight.
Strong winds on the West Coast Capes will continue through Tuesday
before they slowly diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 01/00Z solutions showing good run to run agreement
in the short term. Surface solutions initialized well against the
01/06Z analysis. Solutions diverge late in the extended periods.
Solutions are indicating pretty good convective numbers again
today. Lifted Index near -5 in the Lower Yukon Delta and -3 in the
Middle Tanana Valley today. There is also a wide swath of CAPE
values of 500 to 1500 J/kg from Chicken to the Interior Seward
Peninsula with the highest values around Ruby. Solutions have
similar wind speed and direction in the short term so will use a
blend today. Relative Humidity values will be on the rise to as
moisture is pulled north into the area. The thermal trough will be
slowly moving north into the Upper Yukon Flats by Wednesday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over northern Alaska continues with
a 558 dam high 300 nm north of Utqiagvik this morning and ridging
extending northeast into the high Arctic, southeast over the the
Northwest Territories, south over the Central Interior, southwest
over the Gulf of Anadyr, and west over the Siberian Arctic. The
high will move to 200 nm north of Utqiagvik Tuesday morning at 555
dam, and remain stationary through Wednesday morning. A 540 dam
low 200 nm that was south of Yakutat yesterday is over Yakutat
this morning with troughing extending southwest to a 516 dam low
200 nm south of Unalaska. The low over Yakutat will move over the
Yukon Territory at 543 dam tonight while the low to the southwest
moves to 200 nm south of Sand Point. By Tuesday evening the high
over the Arctic will be stationary 200 nm north of Utqiagvik,
while the low to the south will move to 200 nm south of Kodiak
Island at 532 dam. A large col will develop over the Interior with
very weak westerly flow aloft. A 548 dam low will develop over
the Western Chukchi Sea Tuesday morning and slowly weaken. A 551
dam high will develop over the Gulf of Anadyr tonight and move
near St Matthew Island by Tuesday evening at 553 dam, them weaken
and dissipate as it moves southeast Wednesday. At 850 hpa...0C
isotherm is still west of 170W and north of the Arctic nearshore
waters. A dome of +10C across the interior yesterday is slowly
moderating with temperatures cooling across the forecast area to
+3C to +8C for the next couple days.

Surface...A 1021 mb high has moved to 200 nm north of Oliktok
Point and will remain quasi stationary through Tuesday. Broad low
pressure extends north over most of mainland Alaska with thermal
troughing north of the Alaska Range, a inverted trough over the
West Coast, and a trough extending from the Gulf of Alaska
southwest to a 991 mb low that will move to 200 nm south of Sand
Point tonight. Weak high pressure is holding on in the Copper
River Basin, and Southcentral Alaska. The thermal trough will
shift to the north into the Upper Yukon Flats and northwest
mainland Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus holding on over most of
the Arctic Coast with a few holes allowing the sun to shine
through at times. The plains and Brooks Range will be generally
sunny. Winds northeast to east at 20 to 35 mph and gusty along the
coast extending inland about 30 miles. Lighter winds to the south
at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures generally cooler with highs in the
30s, and lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s along the coast,
warmer inland with highs in the 40s and 50s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Thunderstorm activity was
generally southwest of Galena Yesterday, and will expand to the
north a little today. The most likely area for scattered
thunderstorms will be from Ruby to Galena then northwest across
the northern Nulato Hills into Interior Seward Peninsula. Winds
north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph and gusty today. Inverted trough
continues to develop over Seward Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Coast
with a weak low developing near Kotzebue Sound. Temperatures
warming slightly cooler today then steady through Thursday. Near
Red Flag conditions in the Noatak and Kobuk River Basins today.

Central and Eastern Interior...Today will be pretty similar to
yesterday, but the chance of thunderstorms will expand to the
north with most activity from Livengood south. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible south of Fairbanks again today and
along the Tanana River to the Yukon. Wednesday looks less active,
but expect at least isolated thunderstorms and showers. Highs
today in the mid 60s to lower 70s with overnight lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northeast to southeast winds to 5 to 15 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Inland and south of the
Brooks Range expect increasing clouds during the afternoon hours
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers, then some
clearing overnight. In the Arctic, stratus will prevail along the
coast with a mix of clouds in the plains and Brooks Range. Thermal
trough will be shifting north over the Upper Yukon Flats and
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range Friday with increased
chances of thunderstorms and showers in those areas. South of the
Brooks Range temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. In the
Arctic highs in the 30s to lower 40s, and lows in the 30s.

&&

.Fire Weather...Temperatures are cooling, with diminishing winds
across the area. Near Red Flag Conditions are still expected from
Huslia northwest along a branch of the Thermal trough. Main
Thermal Trough lies from Chicken to Salcha to Minchumina to the
Southern Nulato Hills. Isolated thunderstorms with scattered to
isolated showers are expected over most of the Interior, the Lower
Yukon Delta, Nulato Hills, Seward Peninsula, Western Interior,
and Northwestern Interior. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
from the Tanana Flats south of Fairbanks along the Tanana River to
the Yukon, west to Galena, over the Northern Nulato Hills, and
Interior Seward Peninsula.

&&

.Hydrology...Flooding reported at the Kuparuk River Bridge
yesterday so Flood Advisory remains in effect for that area into
Tuesday. Flowing water continues to widen the channels across the
remainder of the Arctic, but potential continues for small ice
jams to develop and inundate low lying areas within the Flood
Plain. Interior and West Coast waterways continue to fall slowly.
Showers will bring some minor rises in Interior River and Streams,
but do not expect much impact at this time. A increase in showers
in the Eastern Alaska Range Wednesday night has the potential to
bring around an inch of rain to the area, and that will produce
rising river levels in that area as we move into next weekend. For
the latest river and breakup information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisory for AKZ203.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 20