Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

727 
WWAK62 PAFG 010534
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
934 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

AKZ209-216-217-010645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
934 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BALDWIN PENINSULA AND
SELAWIK VALLEY...UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND LOWER KOYUKUK
AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

AKZ210-010800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200601T0800Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
934 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Inland areas.

* TIMING...Until Midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...57 to 75.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ212-010800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200601T0800Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
934 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS...

* AFFECTED AREA...North of Unalakleet.

* TIMING...Until Midnight tonight.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...58 to 75.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

288 
WWAK62 PAFG 010734
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1134 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

AKZ210-212-010845-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200601T0800Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
1134 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
532 AM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

.Synopsis...Red Flag Warnings continue for the Middle and Lower
Tanana Valley, and Near Red Flag conditions are expected from the
the Upper Yukon Flats to the Middle Yukon Valley. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms and showers mainly south of a line from
Eagle to Livengood to Shishmaref today and Monday. Stratus over
the Eastern Arctic Coast is spreading west. Temperatures maybe a
degree or two warmer again today for areas south of the Brooks
Range. Northeast to east winds similar to yesterday with be
diminishing tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 31/00Z solutions have made a few changes, but not
that are of much impact to the forecast area. The continue to be
pretty consistent from run to run on moving to the more seasonal
pattern of westerly flow aloft. Solutions diverge late in the
extended periods as they transitions to a rather benign pattern.
Solutions are producing some pretty good convective numbers with
the latest run. Lifted Index near -5 in the Lower Yukon Delta, and
CAPE values of 800 to 1000 J/kg. Good convective numbers stretch
from the Upper Tanana Valley to the Middle Tanana southwest to
the Lower Yukon Delta, and northwest to the Seward Peninsula.
Surface solutions initialized well against the 31/06Z surface
analysis. NAM and GFS showing slightly stronger winds so will
nudge the forecast database to those solutions. Relative Humidity
values will be on the rise to start the week as moisture is pulled
north into the area. The thermal trough will persist along the
north slopes of the Alaska Range most of the week, but does slide
north during the afternoon hours.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over northern Alaska with a 561 dam
high 200 nm northwest of Utqiagvik this morning and ridging
extending northeast into the high Arctic, southeast over the
Northern Yukon Territory, south over the Western Interior, and
southwest over the Chukotka. The high will move to 200 nm north of
Utqiagvik Monday morning, and to 150 nm north of Utqiagvik by
Tuesday morning at 556 dam. A 540 dam low 200 nm south of Yakutat
this morning will move over Yakutat Yakutat this evening and over
the Yukon Territory Monday morning. Troughing will remain to the
south over the Gulf of Alaska as a 518 dam low will move to 150 nm
south of Unalaska Monday morning, and near Sand Point Tuesday
morning at 530 dam. Several weak shortwaves will move west over
the Southern Interior, Alaska Range, and Western Interior and West
Coast south of Kotzebue Sound through Wednesday. At 850 hpa...0C
isotherm is still west of 170W and north of the Arctic nearshore
waters. A dome of +10C lies along 64N and will slide north to lie
along 65N this evening then moderates as temperatures cool across
the forecast area to +3C to +8C for the next couple days.

Surface...A 1030 mb high 200 nm north of Demarcation Point has
weakened to 1026 mb and it will slowly drift west to 200 nm north
of Utqiagvik Monday morning. Thermal trough has moved north of the
Alaska Range as old occluded front merges into it. Weak high has
developed over Prince William Sound, and troughing remains over
the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. Inverted trough will develop
over the West Coast as a 999 mb low develops in Norton Sound
Monday night. A 997 mb low will develop in the Thermal trough
south of Fairbanks this evening and move to Galena by Monday
afternoon at 998 mb. As the high pressure in the Arctic Weakens,
the gradient across the Interior will relax.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A patch of stratus is moving west
over the Eastern Arctic Coast with the northeast to east onshore
flow. Patchy fog will be be moving back in with the stratus. The
remainder of the area will see a mix of clouds through the day.
Inland over the plains and Brooks Range it will be mostly sunny
and warmer than the coastal areas. Winds 5 to 25 mph with the
strongest winds east of Utqiagvik. Temperatures cooling a couple
degrees with highs in the 30s, and lows in the upper 20s to upper
30s along the coast, warmer inland.

West Coast and Western Interior...A few showers this morning from
the Seward Peninsula south, with increasing showers and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected south of Kaltag and will continue through late
evening. From Huslia to Kotzebue and north it will remain mostly
clear. Winds northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph and gusty today
becoming north to northeast as a inverted trough develops over the
area and a low develops in Norton Sound. Showers and thunderstorms
will spread up the coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
warming slightly today then steady through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Today will be pretty similar to
the last couple days with generally partly cloudy skies north of
Fairbanks, while from Fairbanks south expect increasing clouds in
the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms and showers. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible south of Fairbanks over the Tanana
Flats. Tuesday will be very similar with afternoon isolated
thunderstorms and showers, but they will spread further north to
be generally south of Livengood. Wednesday looks less active, but
expect at least isolated showers. Highs today in the 70s to low
80s with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Northeast to east
winds to 5 to 20 mph and gusty again today will diminish Monday
to 5 to 10 mph, but remain from the northeast to southeast. Red
Flag Warnings remain in effect for the Middle Tanana
Valley/Fairbanks, and the Lower Tanana Valley/Nenana/Tanana and
south to Minchumina.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Moving into a more seasonal
pattern with westerly flow aloft. Expect increasing clouds in the
afternoons with isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers.
Some clearing overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
The Arctic Coast will be mostly cloudy with low stratus and
patchy fog.

&&

.Fire Weather...Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the
Middle Tanana Valley/Fairbanks, and the Lower Tanana
Valley/Nenana/Tanana and south to Minchumina. Isolated
thunderstorms and showers, mainly south of a line from Eagle to
Fairbanks to Galena to Shishmaref today and Monday. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible from the Tanana Flats south of
Fairbanks to the Lower Yukon Delta south of Kaltag.

&&

.Hydrology...Flowing water continues to widen the channels in
most of the Arctic. Still some potential for small ice jams to
develop and inundate low lying areas within the Flood Plain.
Interior and West Coast waterways continue to fall slowly. Showers
will bring some minor rises in Interior River and Streams, but do
not expect much impact at this time. For the latest river and
breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ221-AKZ222.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 20