Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

197 
WWAK63 PAFG 292303
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 PM AKDT Fri May 29 2020

AKZ221-301445-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0500Z/
Central Interior-
303 PM AKDT Fri May 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...This evening through 9 PM and again Saturday during 
  the afternoon and early evening.

* WINDS...Northeast 12 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Min RH values will recover into the low 50 percent
  range tonight. Daytime min RH values will drop as low as 22 
  percent during the afternoon Saturday.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-301445-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0500Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
303 PM AKDT Fri May 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...This evening through 9 PM and again Saturday during 
  the afternoon and early evening.

* WINDS...Northeast 12 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Min RH values will recover into the low 50 percent
  range tonight. Daytime min RH values will drop as low as 23
  percent during the afternoon Saturday.

* TEMPERATURES...71 to 79.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

035 
WWAK63 PAFG 301235
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
435 AM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

AKZ221-310200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0500Z/
Central Interior-
435 AM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...Early this afternoon through 9 PM.

* WINDS...Northeast 12 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...as low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-310200-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0500Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
435 AM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...Early this afternoon through 9 PM.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...as low as 21 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...71 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

157 
WWAK63 PAFG 302215
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

AKZ224-310600-
/O.EXB.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0600Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
215 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...North of Chicken.

* TIMING...Now through 10 PM this evening. 

* WINDS...Northeast 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...near 75.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ221-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Central Interior-
215 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...through 10 PM Sunday. Temperatures will fall and RH 
  will recover above 40% late tonight, but Red Flag conditions
  will resume again on Sunday from Noon through 10 PM. 

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low 20 to 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-311500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
215 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...through 10 PM Sunday. Temperatures will fall and RH 
  will recover above 40% late tonight, but Red Flag conditions
  will resume again on Sunday from Noon through 10 PM. 

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low 20 to 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

208 
WWAK63 PAFG 310532
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
932 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020


AKZ224-310645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200531T0600Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
932 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

AKZ221-311400-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Central Interior-
932 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...Through 10 PM Sunday. Temperatures will fall and RH 
  will recover above 40% late tonight, but Red Flag conditions 
  will resume again on Sunday from Noon through 10 PM.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 to 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-311400-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
932 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...Through 10 PM Sunday. Temperatures will fall and RH 
  will recover above 40% late tonight, but Red Flag conditions 
  will resume again on Sunday from Noon through 10 PM.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

891 
WWAK63 PAFG 311330
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
530 AM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

AKZ221-010600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Central Interior-
530 AM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...Late this morning through 10 PM. 

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...70 to 76.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-010600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
530 AM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...Late this morning through 10 PM

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

641 
WWAK63 PAFG 312238
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020


AKZ221-010600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Central Interior-
238 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* TIMING...Through 10 PM tonight.

* WINDS...Northeast 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-010600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
238 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* TIMING...Through 10 PM tonight.

* WINDS...Northeast 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

936 
WWAK63 PAFG 010531
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
931 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

AKZ221-222-010645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200601T0600Z/
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-
931 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
418 AM AKDT Fri May 29 2020

.Synopsis...Another pretty nice day across the Interior with the
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers mainly
south of Fairbanks, and that will continue through the weekend.
Fire Weather Watch continues for the Interior as highs will be
rising into the 70s with Relative Humidity values falling into the
20s for most of the area, and winds will be picking up from the
northeast today and remain fairly strong through Saturday. Some
isolated thunderstorms and showers in the Western Interior south
of Huslia today, while most coastal areas will see some clouds,
but no showers. The stratus has moved off the coast, but expect it
to move back over the area later today. Temperatures warming.
Winds increasing today from the northeast across the forecast area
to 5 to 20 mph and gusty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 29/00Z solutions continue the good agreement they
have shown over the last few days in the short term and midrange,
but diverge toward the end of the extended periods as they
transitions to a rather benign pattern. Convection signatures
remain weak with the latest solutions so only isolated activity
again today, and it looks like through the weekend. Surface
solutions initialized well with the weak pattern over the area.
NAM and GFS showing slightly stronger winds than the ECMWF and
Canadian so will lean that way today as they increase from the
northeast. Solutions indicate increasing moisture moving into the
Interior as decaying occlusion slowly moves north into the
Interior as the high to the north weakens. GFS, NAM, and Canadian
continue to show slightly warmer temperatures at 850 hpa as warm
air is pulled northwest into the area along the south flank of the
ridge, so will lean a little toward the warmer solutions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...High that was over the Northern Yukon
Territory yesterday has moved southeast over the Northwest
Territories at 566 dam. High that developed over Norton Sound
yesterday has moved over the Upper Kobuk at 564 dam and will merge
with the ridging to the east but maintain a closed center, and it
will move over Utqiagvik by Saturday morning. Solutions have
changed from yesterday, and now the high will move off to the
northwest to 200 nm northwest of Utqiagvik Sunday morning, and to
300 nm northwest of Utqiagvik by Monday morning at 558 dam. A 539
dam low near the Dateline 200 nm north of Wrangel Island this
morning will move over the top of the ridge to the Central
Beaufort Sea Monday morning at 534 dam. A 539 dam low 450 nm south
of Yakutat this morning will move northwest to 200 nm south of
Prince William Sound by Sunday morning at 538 dam, and continue to
weaken as it moves northeast into the Upper Tanana Valley Monday
morning at 540 dam. A 518 dam low that will move to 200 nm
southeast of Unalaska Monday morning. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm has
been pushed west over the coast to the Seward Peninsula, then
northeast to Oliktok Point and the Central Beaufort Sea.
Temperatures around +10C will move into the Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile Country today as the 0C isotherm is pushed offshore.
Temperatures around +10C will push west to the Middle Tanana
Valley and Upper Kuskokwim Valley late this evening, then moderate
overnight. Another push of temperatures around +10C will push
over the Interior, mainly south and east of the Yukon River,
Saturday. The band of warmer temperatures will persist through
Sunday across the Interior.

Surface...Quite pattern persists with high pressure to the north
and low pressure to the south through the weekend. A 1031 mb high
has moved to Oliktok Point with high pressure extending north to a
1028 mb high near the pole, and southwest over the West Coast
with a 1027 mb high over the Seward Peninsula. Broad low pressure
will persist south of the Alaska Range with a 994 mb low 500 nm
south of Yakutat, and thermal troughing south of the Alaska Range.
The high over the Arctic will move to 200 nm north of Kaktovik
Saturday morning at 1031 mb, while the low in Northeast Pacific
will move to 300 nm south of Cordova. Thermal trough will
strengthen in the Copper River Basin and Southcentral tonight and
Saturday and push northeast into the Upper Tanana Valley in the
Yukon Territory with a 1002 mb low developing near Burwash Landing
YT. Pressure gradient over the Interior and Arctic will tighten
with northeast to east winds increasing this afternoon and
remaining relatively strong through Sunday. A decaying weather
front will merge with the Thermal trough as it slides north into
the Southern Interior Saturday night with a 997 mb low near
Kantishna, and a 1000 mb low near Northway. Inverted trough will
develop over the West Coast Saturday and strengthen Sunday as a
1006 mb low develops in Kotzebue Sound.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus has cleared from most of
the area this morning with weak offshore flow, but expect the
stratus to return tonight as the flow swings around from the
northeast and east. Patchy fog continues on and off and will
become more of an issue as the flow swings around. Winds variable
at 5 to 15 mph today becoming northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph
today, and increasing to 10 to 25 mph Saturday. Expect gusts to 35
mph east of Utqiagvik. Temperatures warming with highs in the 40s
to lower 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees east of Point Lay Saturday
and Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear across the
forecast area this morning with increased clouds and a slight
chance of thunderstorms and showers in the Western Interior this
afternoon. Another chance of thunderstorms and showers south of
Kaltag on Saturday and Sunday. Mostly clear conditions will
persist north of Galena and the Seward Peninsula, and on St
Lawrence Island. Winds variable to 10 mph becoming northeast to
east at 5 to 20 mph Saturday, except on St Lawrence Island where
southeast to south winds will prevail at 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures warming.

Central and Eastern Interior...From Fairbanks north partly
cloudy, while south of Fairbanks it will be mostly cloudy today.
Isolated thunderstorms and showers generally south and east of
Fairbanks today and Saturday. Highs today and Saturday in the 70s.
Light and variable winds this morning for most of the area will
be increasing from the northeast to 5 to 20 mph and gusty through
Saturday night. With the warmer temperatures and increasing winds,
near Red Flag conditions are expected and Fire Weather Watches
remain in effect for the Upper Yukon Flats, the Middle Tanana
Valley/Fairbanks, and the Lower Tanana Valley/Nenana/Tanana and
south to Minchumina.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Transitioning to a more
seasonal pattern south of the Brooks Range with increasing clouds
in the afternoon, isolated thunderstorms, and scattered showers.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s. The Arctic will be mostly cloudy with low stratus
and patchy fog.

&&

.Fire Weather...Warmer and drier today and Saturday with Near Red
Flag Conditions so Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for the
Upper Yukon Flats, the Middle Tanana Valley/Fairbanks, and the
Lower Tanana Valley/Nenana/Tanana and south to Minchumina. Slight
chance/isolated thunderstorms and showers, mainly south of a line
from Eagle to Fairbanks to Galena to St Marys. Northeast winds
increasing today to 5 to 20 mph and gusty for most areas south of
the Brooks Range.

&&

.Hydrology...Breakup continues in the Arctic with water running
in most channels. A few ice jams have been reported inland with
solid ice near the coast. Minor flooding of low lying areas has
been noted, but no impact to assets at this time. Interior and
West Coast waterways continue to fall slowly. For the latest river
and breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 20