Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

828 
WWAK63 PAFG 211244
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

AKZ223-220500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0003.200521T2000Z-200522T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
444 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Delta Junction south to Isabel Pass.

* TIMING...Noon Thursday to 10 PM Thursday.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds will 
  diminish Friday morning to around 10 to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...64 to 70.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ226-220500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0003.200521T2000Z-200522T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
444 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...Isabel Pass north of Black Rapids.

* TIMING...Noon Thursday to 10 PM Thursday.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds will 
  diminish Friday morning to around 15 to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...58 to 67.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ220-220500-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0002.200522T2000Z-200523T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
444 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...70 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

830 
WWAK63 PAFG 212200
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

AKZ223-220600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200522T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Delta Junction south to Isabel Pass.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM today.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...64 to 70.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ226-220600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200522T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...Isabel Pass north of Black Rapids.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM today.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...58 to 67.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ220-220600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0002.200522T2000Z-200523T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...70 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

215 
WWAK63 PAFG 220528
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
928 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

AKZ223-220800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200522T0800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
928 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Delta Junction south to Isabel Pass.

* TIMING...Until Midnight AKDT Tonight. 

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...64 to 70.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ226-220800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200522T0800Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
928 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

* AFFECTED AREA...Isabel Pass north of Black Rapids.

* TIMING...Until Midnight AKDT Tonight.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...58 to 67.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ220-220800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0002.200522T2000Z-200523T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
928 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...70 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

729 
WWAK63 PAFG 220708
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1108 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

AKZ223-226-220815-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200522T0800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
1108 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

AKZ220-221700-
/O.UPG.PAFG.FW.A.0002.200522T2000Z-200523T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.FW.W.0004.200522T2000Z-200523T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
1108 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon to 10 PM AKDT Friday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats northeast of Fort Yukon.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph.

* HUMIDITY...20 to 25 percent in the afternoon.

* TEMPERATURES...72 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 AM AKDT Wed May 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and largely quiet spring weather continues to dominate
as the Pacific storm track remains progressive to the south. This
is keeping fronts from moving northward, but it is also keeping
strong interior ridges displaced well to the southeast which is
currently putting most of the region near normal for temps and
below average precipitation for the last month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The upper levels are currently being dominated by northern stream
upper level troughs detached from the Pacific storm track. This is
keeping a rather dry and stable air mass in place. To the south
is where the action is, with the most notable feature being a
strong ~976 mb low over the far Western Aleutians. There is
another weaker closed low over the Gulf, and this was responsible
fro spreading moisture north to the Alaska Range where most of the
daytime showers were. In between these lows is a shortwave ridge
which is currently over the Eastern Bering Sea. Finally, there is
a weak cutoff migratory low over the Kotzebue Sound region,
although this feature is weak and only responsible for some mid
level clouds. Beside an afternoon shower that managed to produce a
few lightning strikes over the Lower Yukon, regional weather
remained on the banal side of things.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A pattern shift will be underway starting today as the upper level
flow gradually shifts to southerly aloft which will advect in
more moisture and clouds. Enough instability will be present to
support a few isolated thunderstorms in the Lower Yukon and
Western Interior mountains, but most activity tomorrow will be
plain rain showers given the feeble instability which will likely
be shallow based. Rain/showers with clouds and slightly
cooler/cloudier weather will persist through the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and low stratus along with easterly winds will continue to be
the dominant mode across the region through the end of the week.
Gradual warming will continue as temps push slightly above average
by late week. This warming will be due to increasing southerly
flow aloft which will also support chances for rain snow across
the Western Arctic coast tomorrow through Friday as waves of
energy cross that part of the Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Enough moisture and instability will hang around the Alaska Range
today for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm,
otherwise, expect continued gradual warming and continued dry
conditions elsewhere over the Interior. Beginning late Wednesday
through Friday, increasing southerly winds and a strengthening
thermal trough will begin to induce rather gusty winds through the
Alaska Range where local gap winds will likely reach into the
40-50 MPH range, especially through the normal favored gaps like
Windy and Isabel Passes. Beyond this, continued gradual warming
can be expected as temps once again rise above average by late
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
Beginning the extended forecast on Saturday, there will be a
large upper level low centered over the Eastern Aleutians
extending east into the Gulf of Alaska. There will be an interior
upper level ridge over the Yukon Territory extending west into the
Eastern Interior of Alaska. Above average temps will be the
dominant mode for all locations except the West Coast which will
be near normal. Continued dry conditions dominate over the
Interior through the weekend before uncertainty grows by l;ate
Sunday with a series of upper wave disturbances which are going to
track north across the Alaska Range. All the global numerical
models show a similar pattern albeit with differing overall
solutions. However, the overall pattern will become increasingly
favorable for showers and thunderstorms over the Interior as
closed blocking high is established over the Arctic and the flow
becomes more easterly aloft. this pattern will likely continue
through mid week at the least, so it does look like precipitation
may return by next week, albeit with thunderstorms as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will gradually warm through the week as upper ridging
establishes itself over the Interior. This will bring in
increasing clouds and moisture over the West Coast/Western
Interior with warming temps and continued dry conditions over the
Central and Eastern Interior through the weekend. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible south and east of Northway on Thursday
as well as over the Lower Yukon Valley and Western Interior
mountains. Gap winds through and near the Alaska Range will
increase on Thursday as the thermal trough strengthens along the
Tanana River. Near Red Flag conditions are possible Thursday as
sustained winds north of Donnelly Dome and south of Delta Junction
push 30 mph and minimum Relative Humidity levels hover around 20
to 25 percent. Minimum relative humidity levels over much of the
interior will be in the upper teens to 30 percent with the lowest
values over the Yukon Flats, the Middle Tanana Valley and along
the northern foothills of the Alaska Range through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to rise into the lower to middle 70s
over much of the Central and Eastern Interior as minimum relative
humidity levels continue to drop into the upper teens and 20s each
afternoon by Friday and through the weekend. Minimum Relative
Humidity criteria will likely be met and will be flirting with
both Red Flag temperature and wind criteria especially over the
Yukon Flats and Middle Tanana Valley as the weekend approaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most rivers south of the Brooks Range are continuing to trend
down, but there remains well above normal flow levels in some
areas. Glacially fed rivers may remain high as snowmelt continues.
Breakup is slowly starting in the Arctic with more open leads
appearing. As temperatures warm over this region later in the
week, expect increased river rises and possible local ice jams.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER MAY 20