High Wind Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
552 AM AKDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet today before drier and slighter warmer conditions for
Saturday and Sunday south of the Brooks Range. The next system to
watch is a strong storm with remnant typhoon energy that will
enter the Y-K Delta region Sunday into Monday. This will then
bring more rainfall from the West Coast to the Interior. Scattered
to numerous showers are occurring for the Seward Peninsula and
southern Interior and will decrease in probability into tonight. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be confined to the upper Yukon
Valley. Fog and low stratus is currently impacting the Arctic
Coast this morning. Dense fog is possible for the eastern Arctic
Coast from Alpine to Barter Island until the later morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, models are in pretty good agreement on major features in
the short term until a strong low pressure system that will
consist of remnants of Typhoon Maysak approaches the southern
Bering Sea Sunday morning. Differences occur on track and speed.
04/00z NAM and GFS are a little more in line than the 03/12z
ECMWF, which positions the center a little more west. The impacts,
however, will be similar to the previous system that had a
similar track. NE gusts from the Bering Strait south and rainfall
from the West Coast to the Interior. These conditions will begin
early Sunday in the Y-K Delta region. Southerly gap winds near
advisory level will be likely again in the Alaska Range Passes.

The persistent upper level low and associated surface low near
the Seward Peninsula will track north and north east today
eventually bringing an end to the showers in NW Alaska. Another
upper level low and associated surface low just east of Seward in
Southcentral Alaska, which has been the source for the Interior's
precipitation, will make it's track east today into the Yukon. A
ridge of high pressure will build in behind it bringing much of
the state drier and slightly warmer conditions for the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers today will decrease in coverage
into tomorrow. Light snow possible above 4000-5000 feet in the
Alaska Range through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
today from Beaver to the ALCAN border and south to Eagle. Clearer
and drier conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. Strong
winds are expected to develop in the Alaska Range on Sunday. Wet
and cooler conditions will once again return Monday and into next
week.

North Slope and Arctic Coast...
Easterly winds are supporting low stratus and fog along the
coast. Patches of dense fog is being observed from the general
area of Alpine to Barter Island. These conditions will return
tonight before winds decrease and turn more onshore on Saturday.
Scattered to numerous rain and snow showers in the Eastern Brooks
Range is expected today, therefore, light snow accumulation
possible above 3000 feet through Saturday. This includes Atigun
Pass. Temperatures will generally be cooler in the Range the next
couple of days, but will be trending warmer for the North Slope
and coastal areas before turning cooler after the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Lingering rain showers will begin to dissipate along the coast
today as the low that has persistently been over the Seward
Peninsula finally tracks north. A slight warming and drying trend
will occur for the weekend. Winds will begin to increase out of
the NE Sunday morning from the Bering Straight south as a strong
storm moves into the Bering. Rain will return and enter the Y-K
Delta region later in the day on Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
NE winds 20-30kt across West Coast Sunday and Monday will cause
slightly elevated surf along north and west facing shores.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms possible today from Beaver to the ALCAN
border and south to Eagle. Cool and wet conditions will continue
for much of Northern Alaska into Saturday with drier and slightly
warmer temperatures for the weekend due to a ridge of high
pressure and downsloping off of the Alaska Range ahead of a strong
storm that will move into the SE Bering Sea. More rainfall
expected with this system for the West Coast into the Interior
early next week. Temperatures will then cool and the area will
remain in a wet pattern for next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Through tonight, expect another 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain from the
Steese Highway to Eagle and south to the eastern Alaska Range. As
well as south of Ruby up to Manley Hot Springs. Slight rises are
expected to continue for Interior rivers and streams through the
weekend, but no flooding is expected at this time. However, more
rainfall is anticipated as a strong low pressure system with ample
moisture will begin to impact the West Coast and Interior Sunday
into Monday. Expect more rises on rivers and streams in this
region.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

KS SEP 20