Gale Warning 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 PM AKST Wed Nov 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The powerful storm along the West Coast is beginning to wind down
as the associated front pushes into the Interior and the parent
low that is now inland southwest of the Gulf of Anadyr continues
to rapidly weaken. Heavy snow, localized blizzard conditions, and
strong gales continue to diminish this evening over the west
Coast however several winter related warnings and advisories as
well as high surf advisories remain in effect. Snow, and mixed
precipitation continue to push inland over the Western Interior
and will push into the Central Interior this evening. Strong winds
and light snow ahead of the front continue to produce near
blizzard conditions over the coastal areas of the North Slope. In
addition very strong winds continue over the Central and Eastern
Alaska Range where High Wind Warnings remain in effect. The strong
winds have diminished in the Western Alaska Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A powerful 486 dm 500 hpa low is centered just southwest of the
Gulf of Anadyr, A shortwave trough extending south and west of the
low continues to push east over mainland Alaska and continue to
push the upper level high pressure system further east into the
Yukon and Northwest Territories. A broad longwave trough develops
over mainland Alaska Friday. Rapidly moving shortwaves will push
east through the trough along the Aleutian Island and Northern
Gulf of Alaska into the weekend. The longwave trough deepens over
Western Alaska while a ridge forms over the Alaska Panhandle and
British Columbia early next week.

Models...
The 25/12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread remains minimal in the short range and reasonable in
the mid range but begins to display considerable spread by the
middle of next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Ongoing mountain wave event has brought very strong wind gusts to
the Alaska Range where wind gusts in excess of 80 mph continue.
The very strong winds will diminish later this evening as the
strong front associated with the deep low near the Gulf of Anadyr
pushes east of the area. The Tanana Valley Jet continues to
diminish near Delta Junction as the front approaches from the
west.

Attention turns to snow moving into the Interior from west to
east, with the heaviest totals generally expected over the Central
Interior, slightly lesser values as the trough shifts east this
evening over the Fairbanks area. Expect 1-3" by Thanksgiving
morning, with some local 4-5" amounts possible over the Central
Interior near Indian Mountain and Lake Minchumina. Around an inch
of snow is expected from Fairbanks east. There remains a risk of
some rain mixing with the snow this evening from Fairbanks south
and west. Snow exits late Thursday with mostly dry and cooling
conditions on Friday and Friday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The powerful storm along the West Coast is beginning to wind down
as the associated front pushes into the Interior and the parent
low that is now inland southwest of the Gulf of Anadyr continues
to rapidly weaken. Heavy snow, localized blizzard conditions, and
strong gales continue to diminish this evening over the west
Coast however several winter related warnings and advisories as
well as high surf advisories remain in effect. Snow, and mixed
precipitation continue to push inland over the Western Interior
and will push into the Central Interior this evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Strong winds and light snow ahead of the front continues to
produce near blizzard conditions over the coastal areas of the
North Slope. Conditions are expected to improve after midnight
tonight over the Western North Slope and by morning over the
Eastern North Slope. East winds will remain blustery over the
Northwest Arctic through Fri night as a second much weaker front
stalls over Cape Lisburne.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast will start out pretty quiet as northeast
offshore winds will are expected over the West Coast, keeping
pretty much the whole region on the dry side as storms pass well
to the south over the Gulf of Alaska. Southerly flow aloft begins
to move into the Interior late Saturday, increasing light snow
threats into Monday, although currently the pattern looks pretty
benign. Things change on Monday evening through Wednesday as an
arctic trough drops into the West Coast and southerly flow pumps
moisture north across the Alaska Range with snow returning to the
Interior Monday and Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC NOV 20