Gale Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

811 
FZAK51 PAFG 131315
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140300-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
998 mb low has moved into the Chukchi Sea with a 1002 mb low near
Wrangel Island. Weather front is moving over the Northwest Arctic
Coast this morning as the low in the Chukchi Sea moves to 50 nm N
of Wainwright this evening then merges with a low 400 nm NW of
Wainwright. The front will continue E across the Arctic to the
Beaufort Sea by Tue afternoon. A second front will sweep SE across
the Arctic Tue night as high pressure rotates into the Western
Arctic. 

$$

PKZ225-140300-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-140300-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-140300-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-140300-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-140300-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
415 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Jan 20

836 
FZAK51 PAFG 132330
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-141515-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 MB low just north of Cape Lisburne will move to 700 NM 
north of Demarcation Point as a 1009 mb low by 3pm Tue, then 
continue moving east. 

$$

PKZ225-141515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 
1 NM or less.
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-141515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-141515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 
1 NM or less.
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-141515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-141515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
230 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 20

020 
FZAK51 PAFG 141304
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-150315-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 MB low north of Utqiagvik will move to 700 NM north of 
Demarcation Point as a 1009 mb low by 3pm this afternoon and will
continue east overnight. 

$$

PKZ225-150315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-150315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-150315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-150315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-150315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
559 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

Synopsis...Big changes as a weather front moving into the state
is bringing warming temperatures to areas west of Fairbanks, and
those warmer temperatures will spread north and east through the
day. Clouds also spreading east, and the snow that is falling on
the West Coast will also spread east. Heaviest snowfall will be
along the West Coast and Nulato Hills with lesser amounts as the
system moves into the Interior. Snow moving into the Fairbanks
area tonight with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Winds turning
offshore in the Arctic, with warming temperatures. Snow moving
across the area tonight into Tuesday. More cold on the way for
Interior Alaska later in the week, expecting temperatures to fall
into the 20s and 30s below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Solutions have the temperatures trending up, but the
lows tomorrow are much too cold as low will probably be the
midnight temperature tonight. Solutions show good agreement with
the precipitation, so will use a blend for the short term. Winds
are a bit stronger as the high over the Upper Tanana is about 5 mb
stronger, and the low near the Gulf of Anadyr is about 4 mb lower
when initialized against the 12/06Z surface analysis, so will need
to kick the winds up a little across the area.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge axis that was over Sand Point to Anvik
to Wainwright and north over the Central Arctic with a 536 dam
high over the Western Arctic Plain has moved east to lie over
Anchorage to Coldfoot and north over 148W this morning. Troughing
that had been digging southwest over the state has moves
southeast. Low over the Bering Sea has moves to the Southwestern
Gulf of Anadyr at 503 dam. Shortwave that was over the Northeast
Bering Sea yesterday has moved north to lie over Wrangel Island to
Utqiagvik this morning and will move to 80N by Sunday evening.
The second shortwave moving around the low lies from Cape Navarin
to Nunivak Island to Sand Point and it will move to lie from the
Northeastern Gulf of Anadyr to Unalakleet to Kodiak City this
afternoon, and from south of Wrangel Island to Point Hope to
Galena to Trapper Creek Monday morning. The ridge will move to lie
from Prince William Sound to Chalkyitsik to a closed 537 dam high
just north of Demarcation Point by Monday morning. The high will
rotate east to lie from Banks Island to Eagle to Cook Inlet as the
shortwave to the west moves to lie from 200 nm north of Utqiagvik
to Nuiqsut to Fort Yukon. Ridging will move over the Western
Bering Sea Monday and over the West Coast Wednesday morning as the
shortwave moves over the Beaufort Sea. At 850 hpa...-20C isotherm
has pulled out to the southeast. The -10C isotherm has pushed
northeast over the state and lies over the Alaska Range to Dot
Lake, to Ambler, then along the crest of the Brooks Range. A pool
of temperatures around -15C is holding over the Upper Yukon Flats
and the Fortymile Country. Temperatures around -10C will push over
most of the state by this evening with a pool of cooler
temperatures hanging on south of the Eastern Brooks Range, and
another in the Upper Tanana Valley. Temperatures will start
cooling Tuesday. At 925 hpa...A band of 25 kt to 45 kt winds
persists from Dot Lake to Kivalina this morning that will weaken
through the day.

Surface...High pressure persists over most of mainland Alaska
with a 1049 mb high in the Upper Tanana Valley, a 1043 mb high in
the Upper Porcupine Basin. High pressure extends north to a 1033
mb high in the Central Beaufort Sea. A 971 mb low has move to Cape
Navarin this morning and the weather front extends southeast over
Nunivak Island and Bristol Bay. The low will move to the Chukchi
Sea by Monday morning as the front moves into the Central and
Eastern Interior. The low continues north into the Western Arctic,
then northeast as the front drags east over the Arctic Tuesday.
High pressure will build north over the Central Bering Sea Monday,
then slide east as the low moves out and a 1045 mb closed high
will move over Bristol Bay Tuesday. As the front dissipates over
the Eastern Interior, high pressure will push back west over the
Eastern Interior and the closed high will move north over the
Western Interior. High pressure will persist over mainland Alaska
the remainder of the week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds will be turning from the
south as high pressure moves east and a low moves to the Western
Arctic. Snow developing on the Northwest Arctic Coast tonight as
the low moves north, spreading to the Central Arctic Coast Tuesday
morning and the Eastern Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures warming slowly through Tuesday, then cooling through
Friday. Winds will increase Tuesday and Wednesday to 20 to 30 mph,
otherwise winds 10 to 20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Weather front bringing a mess to
the area today with Blizzard conditions, heavy snow, strong winds,
and warming temperatures. Winds east to southeast at 15 to 35 mph
gusting around 55 mph. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait and
Kotzebue Sound/Chukchi Sea area. Snowfall amounts 4 to 7 inches
for many locations along the coast with slightly smaller amounts
inland. Blowing and drifting snow will impact travel.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clouds spreading into the Interior
today and tonight with snow spreading east tonight. Temperatures
will be on the rise and will be 15 to 25 degrees warmer with
todays high temperatures late in the evening. Winds on the
summits this morning will diminish in the afternoon. Wind chill
will continue to be a problem in the Upper Tanana Valley and near
Alaska Range Passes until the temperatures warm and winds
diminish.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A few lingering flurries over
the Central and Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic, elsewhere
clearing skies as high pressure builds over the state. Flurries
will end with clearing and cooling temperatures. Temperatures will
be falling to the 20s below and 30s below for much of Interior
Alaska Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures in the Upper
Tanana Valley may fall to the 50s below Thursday and Friday. A
front moving up the West Coast with spread snow to the area Friday
through the weekend, spreading into the Western Interior Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ223-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ224.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ214-
AKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 20