Gale Warning 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

563 
FZAK52 PAFG 072223
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081415-
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 mb low 200 nm SW of St. Lawrence Island will slowly weaken 
and drift south. A strong weather front along the West Coast will 
weaken in place through Friday.

$$

PKZ200-081415-
Norton Sound-
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-081415-
Dall Point to Wales-
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081415-
Kotzebue Sound-
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-081415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
223 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Oct 20

988 
FZAK52 PAFG 072244
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081415-
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 mb low 200 nm SW of St. Lawrence Island will slowly weaken 
and drift south. A strong weather front along the West Coast will 
weaken in place through Friday.

$$

PKZ200-081415-
Norton Sound-
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-081415-
Dall Point to Wales-
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081415-
Kotzebue Sound-
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-081415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
244 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Oct 20

662 
FZAK52 PAFG 081158
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090215-
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 mb low 200 nm SW of St. Lawrence Island will slowly weaken 
and drift south. A strong weather front along the West Coast will 
weaken in place through Sat.

$$

PKZ200-090215-
Norton Sound-
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-090215-
Dall Point to Wales-
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090215-
Kotzebue Sound-
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-090215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
358 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will bring strong winds to the northern Bering Sea tonight
into Wednesday. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for St.
Lawrence Island from midnight tonight through tomorrow evening.
This front will also bring rainfall to the west coast as it
reaches the west coast on Wednesday. Light rain is expected at
times over the Central and Eastern Interior this evening as a weak
disturbance moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 12 UTC model suite initialized the low in the Bering Sea a
few millibars too weak based on surface analysis. The operational
models are in generally good agreement with the synoptic scale
pattern out through the beginning of the weekend. The GFS and the
ECMWF models diverge Saturday. The ECMWF is a much colder
solution as it moves an upper level low from the Arctic south to
the North Slope on Saturday and into the Interior early next week.
The GFS doesn't bring a low southward from the Arctic into the
Interior until the middle of next week. In the short term, we made
few adjustments to the inherited forecast, nudging slightly to
consensus blends.

Aloft, at 500 mb, the big story is a 516 dam low at is currently
over the northwest Bering. This low will push east tonight, before
stalling out just west of St. Lawrence Island on Wednesday. the
low will remain quasi-stationary through Friday before starting
to move to the south. A weak shortwave will move east over the
central and eastern Interior tonight into early Wednesday. Behind
this shortwave a weak ridge will build over the central and
eastern Interior that will persist until at least Saturday. For
the weekend and beyond there is still a bit of uncertain in the
pattern at the moment as mentioned above.

Central and eastern Interior...
Light rain and fog will persist this evening in the Interior as a
shortwave moves through. Behind the shortwave clearing is
expected as a weak ridge build in aloft. The clearing, combined
with recent rainfall will bring some fog Wednesday morning,
especially in valleys. Thursday and Friday should be free of
precipitation across the Interior although there could be breezy
northeasterly winds at times. Southerly gap winds will pick up in
Alaska Range Wednesday night and will continue into Thursday.
Right now we are expecting winds to peak around 45 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front associated with a low in the western Bering Sea will move
over St. Lawrence Island tonight bringing strong winds and
rainfall. A High Wind Warning remains in effect from midnight
tonight until Wednesday evening for St. Lawrence Island, where
gusts up to 65 mph are expected. The front will reach the Yukon
Delta overnight and will move north along the coast on Wednesday.
As the front moves north along the coast we expect strong
southeasterly winds and rainfall. Light rainfall and breezy
easterly winds are also expected for the western Interior as this
system moves through Wednesday into early Thursday. The western
Interior should be free of precipitation Thursday into Saturday.
Light rainfall will linger around into Friday along the coast as
the area will remain under the influence of the low in the Bering.
Chances for rainfall along the coast will diminish Friday
afternoon as the low pushes to the south and west.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow will continue this evening along the coast, primarily
to the east of Utqiagvik. Breezy easterly winds will develop
along the Arctic Coast Wednesday evening and will persist into
Saturday. High pressure aloft will keep the region dry for
Thursday and Friday with cloudy skies.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf expected on
St Lawrence Island, the Lower Yukon Delta Coast, and outer Norton
Sound Wednesday but no significant impacts. No concerns beyond
Wednesday as most areas will have strong offshore flow.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

OCT 20