Gale Warning 72, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Flurries will spread across the Central Interior into the Eastern
Interior this afternoon, enhancing as a trough digs south and
east. As this does so, this will establish longwave trough pattern
that will engulf Northern Alaska into and through the weekend. An
arctic low will drop south to the Northwest Coast Friday evening
and into the Western Interior by Saturday morning, reinforcing
colder temperatures for much of Northern Alaska. This arctic low
will also bring a continuation of snow squalls along the Northwest
Coast south into the Seward Peninsula today through Friday,
including the Kotzebue Sound area. This pattern will keep strong
northwest flow across a large fetch of open water in the Chukchi
Sea and bring elevated surf of 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide
line from Utqiagvik south to the Bering Strait, including the
northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound into the early
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At the surface, models are in general good agreement through
Sunday, with the placement of major features. A 995 mb low north
of Wrangel Island will drop south to Point Lay as a 1003 mb low
Friday evening. This low will continue to track south through
Southcentral Alaska into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday
morning. Weak ridging will nose into the Western Interior in the
wake of the arctic low as it drops south Saturday night.
Elsewhere, ahead of this arctic low, a shortwave will sweep across
the Central and Eastern Interiors today into this evening and
again for Saturday, increasing the chances of flurries and light
snow for the Central and Eastern Interior.

Aloft, at 500 mb, models initialize well with a trough digging
south and east across the Interior today as a 494 dam low north
of Wrangel Island drops south out of the Arctic to near Point Lay
Friday evening. This low will continue south, creating a deep
trough that will encompass most of the West Coast early Saturday
morning and swing south and east, covering most of the Central and
Eastern Interior by Sunday afternoon. As this low digs south,
weak ridging will nudge into Northwest Alaska from the southwest
Bering on Sunday morning into the start of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Persistent northwest winds will continue to bring snow squalls,
heavy at times, into the Northwest Coast today ahead of an arctic
low dropping south to near Point Lay Friday evening. This low
will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold temperatures that will
slide into the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday morning. As the low
continues south, snow showers will spread east along the Brooks
Range and North Slope on Saturday, bringing minor accumulations of
1 to 3 inches. Winds will decrease Saturday behind the low,
easing the effects of the high surf that has been impacting the
Northwest Coast and snow chances will decrease as well. In the
meantime, strong northwest winds will continue to impact the
Northwest Coast bringing elevated surf of 1 to 3 feet above
normal high tide line from Utqiagvik west through Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A trough digging south with a persistent northwest flow will keep
the chances of snow squalls moving onshore today in the Kotzebue
Sound region. An arctic low will drop south Friday evening into
Saturday, bringing in additional round of snow showers, first to
the coastal areas of Kotzebue Sound then south across the Seward
Peninsula in the Western Interior by Saturday afternoon. Expect
snow total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher
amounts into Saturday. In additions to the snow squalls, blowing
snow may reduce visibility at times Friday evening into Saturday
along the coast from Point Hope into the Kotzebue Sound south
towards the Bering Strait, with strong northwest winds. With this
continued strong northwest flow, elevated surf of 1 to 3 feet
above normal high tide line will impact the north facing coastal
areas of the Seward Peninsula as well as Kotzebue Sound into
early Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A shortwave trough sweeping through is producing flurries across
the Central Interior, from Tanana southeast through Fairbanks,
this afternoon. As this shortwave trough digs deeper, south to the
Alaska Range, this will enhance snow chances from Delta Junction
southeast to Northway later this evening. Expect minor snow
accumulations of up to 2 inches, with heaviest amounts towards
Northway. Attention quickly shifts to Saturday as an arctic low
drops south into the Western Interior, increasing chances of snow
across the region. Another round of minor snow accumulations
expected, of up to 1 inch. A deep trough will set up over the
Eastern and Central Interiors, bringing in an additonal shot of
colder air. High temperatures will cool from the upper teens to
low 20s today into the single digits by early next week over much
of the region. Low temperatures will likely drop into the single
digits above to single digits below, with the coldest low
temperates in the Eastern Interior, east of Fairbanks, in the cold
spots of the Fortymile Country north to the Yukon Flats.
Temperatures in these areas could dip below the teens below zero
by early next week, depending on cloud cover and winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf of 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide line will
continue into Saturday for portions of Northwestern Alaska, Point
Hope south to the Bering Strait, including the northern Seward
Peninsula near Shishmaref and Kotzebue Sound. Conditions will
improve as the the persistent northwest flow eases on Sunday.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Weak ridging will nose into the Northwest Coast ahead of another
trough dropping south out of the arctic late Monday evening into
Tuesday. As this trough digs south through the West Coast and
Western Interior Tuesday into Wednesday, ridging will quickly
build in behind it on Thursday, first into the West Coast and
spread east into the Eastern Interior by Friday morning. This is
ahead of a large system moving out of the Northern Pacific into
the Chuktosk Peninsula next Friday afternoon. As the low
approaches the West Coast, a front will move onshore creating a
southwesterly flow Thursday morning then into the Central Interior
by Friday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty with this
system, we will continue to monitor it.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235.

&&

RZ OCT 20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1113 PM AKDT Thu Oct 29 2020

AKZ207-209-210-300815-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
1113 PM AKDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...High Surf Friday into Saturday...

High surf is expected Friday into Saturday along the Chukchi Sea
Coast from Point Hope to Shishmaref. Water levels are expected to
be 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line, leading to the
potential for erosion and minor flooding along the coast.

Residents should move belongings inland, well above the normal
high tide line, to avoid them being damaged or washed away.

For the latest forecast go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks

CULVER