Gale Warning 60, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
606 AM AKDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
River flooding in the Interior remains the focus of our attention.
Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of the Tanana River
as well as the Chena River near the Moose Creek Dam. Elsewhere, a
strong low over eastern eastern Russia and its associated weather
front will bring gusty strong winds to the the west coast today
along with elevated water levels (especially on the south coast of
the Seward Peninsula) and ample rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 00 UTC model suite initialized well when compared to
observations. All of the operational models are in generally good
agreement with the synoptic scale pattern out through the
weekend; however by as early as this afternoon there are minor
difference in the strength and position of the low over eastern
Russia that result in minor differences in the speed and direction
of the winds along the west coast. For our winds we used a
mixture of the inherited grids and the NAM nest. For
precipitation fields we used a blend of the SREF and the inherited
grids.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 520 dam low is situated over the Chukotsk
Peninsula. This low will remain quasi-stationary into early next
week. A ridge will build north over the Interior today. A 544 dam
low that is currently in the north Pacific south of Adak will
move north today. Tonight, the low will become trough as is merges
into the flow around the low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. The
resultant trough will push into the western Interior Sunday
morning and into the central and eastern Interior Sunday afternoon
and evening.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A ridge will build over the area today resulting in temperatures
being a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The ridge will also
help to limit showers and thunderstorms across most of the
Interior; however, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible in the far eastern Interior near the Canadian
border. Gusty southwesterly winds are expected at times today
north of the Yukon River due to a combination of the surface high
building over the Interior and a weak area of low pressure over
the eastern Brooks Range. Early Sunday, southerly flow will
develop over the Interior. This will bring gusty southerly gap
winds in the Alaska Range during the day on Sunday. The southerly
flow will also bring increased cloud cover, that will keep areas
south of the Yukon River cooler than Saturday. Sunday evening,
chances for showers will increase as a trough moves over the area.
The trough will remain in place for Monday, resulting in cooler
temperatures and rain showers. The models still vary on QPF
amounts along with placement of the heaviest precipitation, with
the GFS being the most aggressive on precipitation amounts. It is
not out of the question that some locations could see a quarter to
a half of an inch of rainfall on Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Southerly flow associated with a low over eastern Russia will
bring rainfall to the southern slopes of the western Brooks Range
today. A weak thermal trough will provide some forcing for
isolated thunderstorms today in the eastern Brooks Range. Showers
will spread east along the Brooks Range on Sunday as a trough
pushes north. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in the
Brooks Range on Sunday along the leading edge of the trough.
Rainfall will become heavier on Monday in the Brooks Range, with
most of the Brooks Range expected to see at least a half of an
inch of rain Monday into Tuesday; however, at the moment, the
models still have differences in the placement of the heaviest
precipitation. Satellite imagery from early this morning shows
pockets of fog and low stratus along the Beaufort Sea coast. With
light easterly winds, we expect to see low clouds and/or fog
along the Beaufort Sea coast on and off into Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low over far eastern Russia will continue to bring strong
southerly winds to the west coast through tonight. The winds today
won't be quite as strong as yesterday due to the low weakening
some overnight. These strong winds will bring elevated water levels
and elevated surf to the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula
today into Sunday; however, coastal flooding is not expected. A
front associated with this low will continue to bring heavy rain
to the Seward Peninsula and the Northwest Arctic today. Rainfall
will spread east into the western Interior on Sunday as the front
and associated upper trough moves inland. Widespread light showers
will continue on Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will dominate over the Interior today with
temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday. Any thunderstorm
activity today will be confined to areas east of a line from
Venetie to Delta Junction. A front will bring wetting rains to the
west coast today. This system will push to the east on Sunday and
Monday, bringing cooler temperatures to the Interior along with
increased chances for rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warnings remain out for the Tanana River from Fairbanks to
Nenana as well as for the Chena River in the vicinity of the
Moose Creek Dam. The Chena River gauge just downstream of the
Moose Creek Dam finally began falling overnight and will continue
to fall today. The Tanana River at Fairbanks is very slowly
falling after cresting on Wednesday night. The Tanana at Fairbanks
is expected to remain in minor flood stage through today. The
Tanana River crested at Nenana yesterday evening. The Tanana will
remain in minor flood stage at Nenana through early Monday
morning. Residents should use extreme caution near high and fast
running rivers as soils have become supersaturated and erosion is
likely and unpredictable.

Heavy rainfall is expected in the Brooks Range Monday into
Tuesday. This rainfall will likely cause some rises in rivers
draining the Brooks Range, especially the south side of the range;
however, the exact details are still uncertain at the moment.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JUN 20