Gale Warning 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKDT Tue May 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast combined with
a weather front over the West Coast and Interior is causing
easterly gales of the Arctic Coast along with blowing snow. Expect
winds to slowly decrease tonight as the front weakens. This front
is causing rain over most of the West Coast south of Kotzebue that
will move west and taper off this evening. This front is also
causing showers across the Interior that will taper off this
evening.

An Arctic Cold front over the North Slope will move south over
the Interior tonight and Wed, then settling over the Alaska Range
on Thu, then moving slowly north on Fri. This will bring cooler
temperatures, drier conditions and NE winds of 15g25 mph to much
of the Interior along and north of the front. The front will cause
scattered showers to develop near the Alaska Range Wed night and
continue into Fri.

At 850 MB, temps are above normal over North Slope and near
normal South of Brooks Range now. Will see North Slope and
Interior cool 4-6C on Wed, and cool another 1-2C on Thu. This
should reflect in a cooling trend over the North Slope and
Interior Wed and Thu. while the West Coast see little change.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions
through Fri. Model precip fields show same general pattern of
decreasing precip tonight. Will use a blend of models for pops and
precip amounts.

At the surface at 18Z...models verify well. Models show similar
surface patterns and gradients into Thu. Winds along the North
Slope are a bit stronger than models forecast today, and have been
adjusted stronger these evening to account for this.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
An Arctic Cold front over the North Slope will move south over
the Interior tonight and Wed, then settled over the Alaska Range
on Thu, then moving slowly north on Fri. This will bring cooler
temperatures, drier conditions and NE winds of 15g25 mph to much
of the Interior Wed into Thu, with Thu being the drier day. The
front will cause scattered showers to develop near the Alaska
Range Wed night and continue into Fri.

HYDROLOGY...
High water, remains on all Interior Rivers and Streams. The
Koyukuk, Chena and Salcha Rivers all have minor flooding. Most
Rivers will crest today or Wednesday, and then fall slowly through
the week.

On the Kobuk River, ice remains in place in many locations. Ice
is expected to break up over the next week along the Kobuk River
along with rising water levels. People along the Kobuk River
should be alert for possible ice jams later this week.

The Yukon River water levels continue to rise with the snow melt.
Ice runs will continue as shore ice is mobilized and side
channels clear. Villages down river from Russian Mission may still
have channel ice in place.

See Special Weather Statements for details.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisory for the Chatanika River, Chena River upstream of
the Moose Creek Dam, the Koyukuk River from Allakaket downstream,
and the Dietrich River north of Coldfoot.

Flood Watch for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224 for the Chatanika, Little
Chena, Goodpast and Fortymile Rivers.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ235.

&&

JB MAY 20