Gale Warning 47, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep upper level low over the northeastern Interior will
continue to weaken and move east into Canada ushering in a more
quiet weather pattern over Northern Alaska. Widespread snow
showers continue this afternoon with brief heavy bursts of snow
and lower visibility in blowing snow as gusty winds push to the
surface in and near the showers. The snow showers have diminished
over the southern portions of the West Coast and Western Interior
and will diminish over the Norther portions of the West Coast and
Western Interior late this afternoon. The snow showers will
diminish this later this evening and tonight over the Central
Interior and will diminish Tuesday over the Eastern Interior.
Below normal temperatures are expected again over the region
through mid week with a slow warm up through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...At 500 mb a complex long wave trough with a 495 dam low
centered 300 nm north of Wrangel Island and a 505 dam low centered
over the McKenzie Delta will push east tonight and Tuesday. A
strong shortwave over the Southern Bering Sea will push east over
Bristol Bay Tuesday and then into the Northern Gulf of Alaska to
be centered just east of Kodiak Island on Wednesday. Strong
westerly flow develops between and 500 dam low just north of Point
Barrow and a ridge building north into Southern Alaska on
Thursday and Friday. 850 mb temperatures over northern will start
off unseasonably cool this evening and will warm slowly through
the week. 850 mb temperatures currently near 20 below over
Fairbanks will warm to near 14 below on Wednesday and will
continue to warm to near 10 below by Friday. Clouds and winds will
prevent surface temperatures from tanking over much of Northern
Alaska however surface temperatures are still expected to be
around 10 degrees below normal tonight and Tuesday but will
recover to near normal by the end of the week.

Surface...A 997 mb low is centered near Prudhoe Bay will continue
to weaken into a trough as it pushes east past Demarcation Point
Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will remain in place over
South Central and Southwest Alaska tonight and will push into the
Interior. A 992 mb low pushes north and east into the Northeast
Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. As this low pushes north and east a
front wrapping around the low will push a front over the southern
Interior on Wednesday night and Thursday. As the weak front pushes
into the Southern portions of the Eastern and Central Interior
expect a chance of light snow Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak high
pressure will build in over Southwest Alaska and the Interior
Wednesday and Thursday.

Models...
The 12Z model suite initialized well against the 12Z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Models are in better agreement with the overall synoptic features
than they were for the last several runs. Made only minor edits to
ongoing forecast package and local edits for know windy areas.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A weather front continues to push
eastward over the North Slope through Tuesday. This front will
bring periods of periods of snow resulting in 1 to 2 inches of
snow through Tuesday. Northwest winds continue to diminish this
afternoon and will become west to southwest tonight and Tuesday.
East of Utqiagvik, light southwest winds will ramp up tonight and
becoming westerly as the front passes. The strongest winds will be
east of Deadhorse in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts to 45 mph.
This will cause areas of blowing snow. We opted to continue the
Winter Weather Advisory blowing snow in zone 204 through Tuesday
morning as winds are expected to remain gusty in this area through
mid morning on Tuesday. The Winter Weather Advisory for zone 206
for low visibilities in blowing snow through the Eastern Brooks
Range Passes continues through this evening. Visibilities are
expected to improve later this evening as winds through the
Eastern Brooks Range passes diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior: Conditions continue to improve
tonight as the low over the Interior continues to move east and
weaken. Snow showers over the Western Interior will taper off
this evening from the west to the east, with an additional inch
of snow possible east of Galena this evening. Colder temperatures
expected tonight with single digits above zero and below zero
expected in the Western Interior. High temperatures in the mid to
upper teens are expected in the Western Interior. Temperatures
will slowly trend upwards through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior: Snow showers, some producing brief
heavy snow, strong winds, and low visibilities in blowing snow
will gradually diminish late tonight in the Central Interior and
Tuesday in the Eastern Interior as an upper level trough moves
across the state. Another 1 to 2 inches of snowfall is expected as
the showers pass through the area. Gusty southwest winds will
continue through Tuesday, with areas of blowing and drifting snow
expected over highway summits. Colder temperatures expected
tonight and tuesday with a gradual warm up through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ206.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC APR 20