Gale Warning 42, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue for northern
Alaska through the middle of the week. Most of forecast area will
see below normal temperatures through Wednesday with a gradual
warming trend is expected through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 30/00z model suite initialized well when compared to
the 00z surface analysis and verified well against the 30/06z
surface analysis. There is good agreement the the overall synoptic
scale pattern out through the middle of the week. Thereafter, the
models begin to diverge, especially as we head into next weekend.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a strong ridge is currently situated over the
Bering Sea while a trough stretches from the Canadian Archipelago
across the Yukon Territory to a 510 dam low in the Gulf of Alaska.
The ridge will slowly slide to the east through the middle of the
week. For the second half of the week, the ridge axis will
continue to slide east to be situated along the Canadian Border.

Central and Eastern Interior: The ridge aloft will remain over
the Interior, which will limit any precipitation through at least
Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain below normal through
the middle of the middle of the week however temperatures will
gradually warm each day. A strong area of high pressure centered
over the Yukon River Valley will persist into Tuesday. This will
continue to produce gusty winds over the central Interior
especially over highway summits that that will result in drifting
snow at times. The gusty winds over the summits will slowly
diminish as the high pressure system drifts east into the
Northwest Territories. Strong northerly gap winds will remain in
place in the eastern Alaska Range through this morning. The winds
are expected to diminish some this afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Expect mostly clear skies for
today and Tuesday. Strong southerly gap winds are expected to
develop in the Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon and will
continuing through the day on Tuesday. This will likely cause
blowing or drifting of snow that could cause some travel
difficulties near passes. A winter Weather Advisory for low
visibilities in blowing snow has been issued for the passes of the
Eastern Brooks Range beginning this afternoon and continuing
through early Tuesday evening.

West Coast and Western Interior: A low moving north over eastern
Russia will cause the pressure gradient to tighten up over the
northern Bering and southern Chukchi Seas. This will bring gusty
east to southeasterly winds to areas along the coast. Wind gusts
of 40 to 50 mph are expected today and Tuesday, especially north
of the Bering Strait. The winds may lead to some blowing or
drifting snow; however at the moment, will hold of on issuing any
Winter Weather headlines for blowing snow as we are not confident
that the visibility will drop below a half mile given the absence
of falling snow; however, Strong Wind headlines have been issued
for the Bering Strait, portions of Norton Sound as well as
Kotzebue Sound and the Southern Chukchi Sea Coast. we will have to
continue to monitor. A weather system is expected to move into
the Yukon Delta late Tuesday night and will continue to move
north along the coast on Wednesday. Light snow in the one to two
inch range is expected with this system.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7: A 980 mb low is expected to
move into Central Bering Sea on Thursday as a front in the
western Interior pushes into the central and eastern Interior on
Friday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system;
however, at the moment, the snowfall totals don't look too
impressive.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.
&&

CCC MAR 20